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WG_Dawg
Georgia Fan
Atlanta
Member since Jun 2004
77883 posts

A history of CFB Playoff Selections
I've made this thread before on other boards but wasn't able to last year so I've updated it now. I'm posting again becuase it ties in with JEfferson's idea that we should want UF to beat alabama because, presumably, that would mean us beating alabama in the seccg would knock them out of the playoffs. While my contention based on history is that that's not necessary and bama wouldn't make it anyway. Here is the top 4, number 5, and Notre Dame every year of the playoffs.

2014
1) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to ole miss.
2) Oregon 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Arizona.
3) FSU 13-0. Conf champion.
4) Ohio State 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to VT
____________________________________
5) Baylor 11-1. Co-champ. Loss to WVU
ND: Nonfactor at 8-5

2015
1) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Alabama 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to ole miss
3) Michigan State 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Nebraska.
4) Oklahoma 11-1. Conf champion. Los to Texas.
_____________________________________
5) Iowa 12-1. Non-champ. Loss to MSU in title game
ND: 10-2, losses to Clemson and Stanford. 8th in playoff rankings

2016
1) Alabama 13-0. Conf champion.
2)Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Pitt
3) Ohio State 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Penn State.
4) Washington 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to USC.
________________________________________
5) Penn State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Pitt and Michigan
ND: Non factor

2017
1) Clemson 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Syracuse.
2) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Iowa State.
3) UGA 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Auburn.
4) Alabama 11-1. Non-champ. Loss to Auburn.
________________________________________
5) Ohio State 11-2. Conf champion. Loss to Oklahoma and Iowa
ND: 10-3, losses to UGA, Miami, Stanford. 14th in playoff rankings

2018
1) Alabama 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
3) Notre Dame 12-0.
4) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Texas.
________________________________________________
5) UGA 11-2. Non-champ. Loss to LSU and Alabama in title game


2019
1) LSU 13-0. Conf champion.
2) Ohio State 13-0. Conf champion.
3) Clemson 13-0. Conf champion.
4) Oklahoma 12-1. Conf champion. Loss to Kansas St.
________________________________________
5) UGA 11-2. Non-champ. Loss to South Carolina and LSU in title game
ND: 10-2, losses to UGA and Michigan. 15th in playoff rankings


2020
1) Alabama 11-0. Conf champion.
2) Clemson 10-1. Conf champion. Loss to ND
3) Ohio State 6-0. Conf champion.
4) Notre Dame 10-1. Non-conf champion. Loss to clemson in title game
________________________________________
5) Texas A&M 8-1. Non-champ. Loss to alabama



With 5 Power Conferences and 4 playoff spots, obviously a conference is going to get left out each year. Here are those cases:

2014: Big 12 where Baylor and TCU were co-champions with 11-1 records. No title game.
2015: Pac 12 champ Stanford. 11-2 with losses to Northwestern and Oregon
2016: Big 12 champ Oklahoma. 10-2 with losses to Houston and Ohio State. No title game.
2017: Big 10 champ Ohio State. 11-2 with losses to Oklahoma and Iowa. Also the Pac12 champ USC. 11-2 with losses to Washington State and Notre Dame
2018: Big 10 champ Ohio State. 12-1 with loss to Purdue. Also Pac12 champ Washington. 10-3 with losses to Auburn, Oregon, and Cal.
2019: Pac 12 champ oregon. 11-2 with losses to Auburn and Ariz. State.
2020: Big 12 champ oklahoma. 8-2 with losses to kansas state and iowa state. Also the Pac 12 champ Oregon finishing at 25th in the rankings. 4-2 with losses to oregon state and cal.


This is a lot of data to go on but presents us with a pretty clear picture of how the committee operates:

-First, you almost surely need to win your conference. Of 28 playoff teams, only 3 of them made it without winning their conference (2016 Ohio State, 2017 alabama, 2020 notre dame).
-As a follow up to the point above, let’s look at why those 3 non-champs made it. ’16 OSU made it over #5 Penn State because they only had 1 loss compared to 2 for psu. Ditto for ’17 bama who made it over #5 OSU, also because OSU had 2 losses compared to just 1 for bama. 2020 is the outlier here in that they had the same record as team #5, but they also had a win over a top 4 team (splitting the season series with them), played for their confernece title, and the #5 team had already lost to who they'd be paired wiht in the first round.
-If you don’t win your conference, you need a lot of help. Mainly in the way of 2/3 of the cases above where other conference winners have 2 losses.
-No team thus far has made the playoffs with more than 1 loss.
-Notre Dame, despite being a media darling or is said to have special privileges, has only made the playoffs twicee and they went undefeated and 1-loss to do so. Even in the years with 2 losses (and some “good losses” at that) they did not finish in the top 7.


So to bring it all back home...let's assume that for 2021 some combination of the ACC/Big 10/Big 12/Pac12 produces 3 conference champions with 0 or 1 loss. That's not all that far fetched and honestly between OU/OSU/Clemson is probably likely. If we beat an undefeated alabama in the SECCG, there is nothing based on 7 years of data that would suggest a 1-loss bama would still make the playoffs. Never in the history of the playoffs has a team that did not win their conference made the playoffs over a team that did win their conference with an equal record.

Therefore- frick florida and roll tide (that day).




Rex Feral
Georgia Fan
Member since Jan 2014
5507 posts

re: A history of CFB Playoff Selections
Those two fifth place finishes are hard to swallow.


WG_Dawg
Georgia Fan
Atlanta
Member since Jun 2004
77883 posts

re: A history of CFB Playoff Selections
2018 hurt just bc we were a half away from making it. We had no business being in the playoffs in 19 so that one doesn't really bother me


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41
VADawg
USA Fan
Jacksonville
Member since Nov 2011
29304 posts

re: A history of CFB Playoff Selections
quote:

5) Baylor 11-1. Co-champ


This team got absolutely fricked out of their playoff spot.


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30
AlaCowboy
Georgia Fan
North Alabama
Member since Dec 2011
5416 posts

re: A history of CFB Playoff Selections
Coastal Carolina would have made a 12 team Playoff in 2020. That's why a 12 team playoff is a bad idea.


VADawg
USA Fan
Jacksonville
Member since Nov 2011
29304 posts

re: A history of CFB Playoff Selections
quote:

Coastal Carolina would have made a 12 team Playoff in 2020. That's why a 12 team playoff is a bad idea.



They'd have gotten hammered but they would have at least gotten a chance to prove themselves. FBS football is the only sport probably in the world (above high school) where every team doesn't control their own destiny for a championship. We're all Georgia fans, so that doesn't really concern us, but the fact that people are fine with this is kind of mind boggling. This made sense in the better days when CFB was more regional than national, but that doesn't really apply anymore.


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Jefferson Dawg
Georgia Fan
Member since Sep 2012
26181 posts

re: A history of CFB Playoff Selections
A 12 team playoff to “fix” college football is the perfect addition to clown world.


Busy Bodies 1,348,946,946
Wisdom 0


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10
VoxDawg
Georgia Fan
Glory, Glory
Member since Sep 2012
36241 posts

re: A history of CFB Playoff Selections
12 team CFP is a fait accompli at this point, beginning in '23,yes?

Even ND' s AD is talking about how he's okay with the top 4 getting byes in the first round.

If the Power 5 ADs are talking scenarios in public, it's all over but the crying.


WG_Dawg
Georgia Fan
Atlanta
Member since Jun 2004
77883 posts

re: A history of CFB Playoff Selections
Idk when it starts, it's utterly moronic either way though. Open transfer portal, freely paying players thorugh NIL, and 12 team playoff has killed teh CFB we've all known and loved our whole lives. And it only took a matter of a few years too, crazy.


Jefferson Dawg
Georgia Fan
Member since Sep 2012
26181 posts

re: A history of CFB Playoff Selections
quote:

and 12 team playoff has killed teh CFB we've all known and loved our whole lives.

Man, if only a few folks would have warned against this exact trajectory to a T back when the 4 team playoff was being debated

Only to be attacked by chowder pops




FooManChoo
Georgia Fan
Member since Dec 2012
32441 posts

re: A history of CFB Playoff Selections
CFB will die eventually. Immediate transfers and paying players are going to make it happen that much faster. It’s like how even teams with losing records get bowl games now. That’s not fun to watch.

4-team playoff was fine. 6 would be tolerable at most, but 12 is simply ridiculous. We will be seeing 3- and 4- loss teams squaring off against undefeated giants and getting beat down mercilessly.
This post was edited on 6/12 at 6:52 pm


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