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re: Some of you guys who are strong in your opinion that Sumlin is a bad coach...

Posted on 10/23/17 at 6:11 pm to
Posted by Hugh McElroy
Member since Sep 2013
18579 posts
Posted on 10/23/17 at 6:11 pm to
quote:

He'd need a run of 10 win seasons to change my mind.


With all due respect, I think this is irrational.
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
81611 posts
Posted on 10/23/17 at 6:13 pm to
quote:

It isn't relevant at all. It's a statistical oddity.


A statistical oddity is twice over 3 years or 3 times over 5 years.

2-3 straight years is a trend, 4 straight years is a correlation.

2012: A&M favored by 15.5 (A&M won 63-21)
2013: A&M favored by 13.5 (Auburn won 45-41)
2014: Auburn favored by 14.5 (A&M won 41-38)
2015: A&M favored by 7 (Auburn won 26-10)
2016: Auburn favored by 4 (A&M won 29-16)
2017: TBD

Based off of that data, the 2012 game was the oddity as it was the only time in which the favorite won.
This post was edited on 10/23/17 at 6:15 pm
Posted by SpeedyNacho
Member since May 2014
2459 posts
Posted on 10/23/17 at 6:15 pm to
I'm pretty sure never is longer than 5 years
Posted by Hugh McElroy
Member since Sep 2013
18579 posts
Posted on 10/23/17 at 6:18 pm to
Visiting team always wins; they're the visiting team.
Underdog always wins; we'll be the underdog.

Irresistible force meets unmovable object!

(Count me in the "both 'trends' are meaningless" camp.)
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
81611 posts
Posted on 10/23/17 at 6:20 pm to
quote:

Underdog always wins; we'll be the underdog.


and if we're the favorite?

quote:

I'm pretty sure never is longer than 5 years


Never is until it happens.

That's like saying that South Carolina never beats A&M even though the two schools have only played 4 times.

Prior to 2014, Ole Miss could NEVER beat A&M.
This post was edited on 10/23/17 at 6:21 pm
Posted by Roger Klarvin
DFW
Member since Nov 2012
46657 posts
Posted on 10/23/17 at 6:36 pm to
He's the one who dug the hole
Posted by AggieDub14
Oil Baron
Member since Oct 2015
14631 posts
Posted on 10/23/17 at 6:41 pm to
How many stat classes did you take in college?

Without additional data points, you have no significant correlation. Jusr because things correlate doesn't mean it's statistically significant.
Posted by Chill98
Member since Aug 2015
2151 posts
Posted on 10/23/17 at 6:59 pm to
Many of the vocal guys on this board also wanted Hugh Freeze, Bielemna, Butch Jones, Jimbo Fisher and Tom Herman to replace Sumlin....

Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
81611 posts
Posted on 10/23/17 at 7:16 pm to
quote:

Many of the vocal guys on this board also wanted Hugh Freeze, Bielemna, Butch Jones, Jimbo Fisher and Tom Herman to replace Sumlin....


Maybe Fisher, but none of the others.
Posted by Nguyening
SEMO
Member since Jun 2013
9078 posts
Posted on 10/23/17 at 7:41 pm to
I have seen fisher, Herman, and Bielema... haven't seen bielema in awhile though.

I would still gladly take fisher, and think Herman probably would have been a good hire even though I don't love him as a person.
Posted by Old Sarge
Dean of Admissions, LSU
Member since Jan 2012
58076 posts
Posted on 10/23/17 at 8:07 pm to
Herman will fail as badly as Charlie
Posted by PhilipMarlowe
Member since Mar 2013
21061 posts
Posted on 10/23/17 at 8:09 pm to
Nah, I’ll never get back on board, short of a conference championship, and I don’t think we will ever win anything of substance under him. However, I also can see a case for him not being fired after this season if he basically wins out, maybe one loss.

Ultimately I want him fired yesterday because he’s not the guy. I’ve seen all I need to see.
Posted by Texas Weazel
Louisiana is a shithole
Member since Oct 2016
8946 posts
Posted on 10/23/17 at 8:44 pm to
quote:

Many of the vocal guys on this board also wanted Hugh Freeze, Bielemna, Butch Jones, Jimbo Fisher and Tom Herman to replace Sumlin....

Don't look at me. I've advocated for Bo Pelini this entire year.
Posted by Nguyening
SEMO
Member since Jun 2013
9078 posts
Posted on 10/23/17 at 8:55 pm to
He might, but I think there's a lot more wrong in Austin than one coach can fix.
Posted by AggieDub14
Oil Baron
Member since Oct 2015
14631 posts
Posted on 10/23/17 at 9:29 pm to
Columbus Crew might move there. Austin will finally have a real sports team.
Posted by TbirdSpur2010
ALAMO CITY
Member since Dec 2010
134050 posts
Posted on 10/23/17 at 9:32 pm to
quote:

Herman will fail as badly as Charlie


I will enjoy watching
Posted by Nguyening
SEMO
Member since Jun 2013
9078 posts
Posted on 10/23/17 at 9:34 pm to
Bo pelini would be a great coach here.
Posted by Dr RC
The Money Pit
Member since Aug 2011
59926 posts
Posted on 10/23/17 at 9:39 pm to
of the two home losses to Auburn

quote:

2013: A&M favored by 13.5 (Auburn won 45-41)


The '13 Auburn team had a horseshoe shoved up their arse and went to the national title game so I'm not sure why losing a close game to them is some great sin. It doesn't matter one iota what the spread was for that game b/c Vegas and everyone else were wrong about how good they were going into the season.

quote:

2015: A&M favored by 7 (Auburn won 26-10)


Kyler Murray isn't here to to quit mid game b/c he didn't like how hard the Auburn players hit him. Why in the world would any rational person use this game to judge what will happen this year when the OC and QB from this game are gone?

Again, what has happened at Kyle Field the last two games has zero to do with what happens this year. I'm sorry but it just doesn't. To say it does is asinine.

Otherwise where are you with a Miss State has never won at Kyle thus we win this weekend prediction? We don't have it b/c it doesn't fit your everything sucks narrative.
This post was edited on 10/23/17 at 10:03 pm
Posted by Dr RC
The Money Pit
Member since Aug 2011
59926 posts
Posted on 10/23/17 at 9:50 pm to
quote:

Don't look at me. I've advocated for Bo Pelini this entire year.


Ehh...

quote:

Bo Pelini defends choice to allow convicted rapist on team


LINK

No thanks.
Posted by Nguyening
SEMO
Member since Jun 2013
9078 posts
Posted on 10/23/17 at 9:57 pm to
Had not heard that story.
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