re: Your projected CFP playoff rankings as of this week

quote:

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See above.

The big 10 has played themselves into a three bid league this season.

Also I explained a few ways the 5th SEC team could be knocked out, but none of those are what I would consider the likely thing to happen.

It is very likely the ACC is just Miami
Big 10 with 3
The G6 School
Notre Dame

The big 12 is a conference that could potentially get 2 teams in but if they dont 5 SEC schools will get in

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I think that's more right than not but not 100% true yet - UCLA doing what they are doing is throwing a wrench into a lot of scenarios.

I think two of the following scenarios would have to happen for them to get four (in increasing order of likelihood in my opinion):

- Oregon runs the table from here on out (not impossible but not likely with Nebraska, @Ohio State, and @Michigan remaining) AND Ohio State wins all give of @IU, @USC, vs. Northwestern, @Nebraska, vs. Michigan
- USC in theory still has a shot with only one loss but they don't look very good, don't have any good wins yet, and still have to play @Wisconsin, vs. Ohio State, @Indiana, and @UCLA
- Northwestern goes 10 - 2 (they have @Oregon, @Ohio State, vs. Iowa remaining)
- Nebraska goes 10 - 2 (@Oregon, vs. Ohio State, @Iowa)
- Wisconsin goes 10 - 2 (@UCLA, vs. USC, @Iowa)
- Iowa goes 10 - 2 (vs. Wisconsin, @Northwestern, vs. Nebraska)
- UCLA goes at least 10 - 2 (vs. Wisconsin, @Michigan, vs. USC)

UCLA is the real wild card here. They completely avoid both IU and OSU; if they get to 11 wins before the conference title game, then they will 100% be in no matter the outcome of that game. They would be a 50 / 50 proposition at 10 - 2.

Not difficult to imagine a scenario where you have OSU, Indiana, UCLA, and one of Iowa / Wisconsin / Northwestern / Nebraska still in the mix at the very end. How they weigh against a 10 - 2 Mississippi State or Kentucky or Tennessee or LSU or Ole Miss or whatever is going to depend on the specifics.

The Big XII could be a two bid league if BYU knocks off Notre Dame this weekend OR if BYU loses this weekend but knocks off Texas Tech in the title game - I think those are the only realistic scenarios of that occurring.

I think the ACC is definitely a one bid league unless Miami gets knocked off somehow in the ACC title game against Wake or SMU.