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re: Will LSU make it to the final 4
Posted on 2/20/19 at 2:32 pm to Terrific Tales
Posted on 2/20/19 at 2:32 pm to Terrific Tales
Points per 100 possessions is a very commonly used defensive metric.
In 2017, all final four teams finished in the top 20 in adjD (1,3,11,17 respectively)
In 2016, all four were in the top 21 in adjD.
In 2015, three were top 20 (Wisconsin was 35, but made up for it by being #1 in adj O)
In 2014, all 4 were top 35 in adjD.
In 2013, 3 were top 20 in adjD (Michigan was 37th, but #1 in adjO).
In 2012, all 4 were in the top 7 in adjD.
In 2011, 2 were top 20 in adjD (Butler and VCU are outliers).
In 2010, all 4 were top 27 in adjD
In 2009, all 4 were top 18 in adjD.
Typically, if you’re squad isn’t top 30-top 20 in adjD, you need a truly elite offense (Michigan and Wisconsin both being the most efficient offenses in the country in their respective years) to overcome that defense.
LSU is #12 in adjO, a very good offense, but history would indicate that it’s not good enough to overcome their very mediocre (#63) defense to make a final four. LSU needs to dramatically improve on the defense end to make a deep run in March
In 2017, all final four teams finished in the top 20 in adjD (1,3,11,17 respectively)
In 2016, all four were in the top 21 in adjD.
In 2015, three were top 20 (Wisconsin was 35, but made up for it by being #1 in adj O)
In 2014, all 4 were top 35 in adjD.
In 2013, 3 were top 20 in adjD (Michigan was 37th, but #1 in adjO).
In 2012, all 4 were in the top 7 in adjD.
In 2011, 2 were top 20 in adjD (Butler and VCU are outliers).
In 2010, all 4 were top 27 in adjD
In 2009, all 4 were top 18 in adjD.
Typically, if you’re squad isn’t top 30-top 20 in adjD, you need a truly elite offense (Michigan and Wisconsin both being the most efficient offenses in the country in their respective years) to overcome that defense.
LSU is #12 in adjO, a very good offense, but history would indicate that it’s not good enough to overcome their very mediocre (#63) defense to make a final four. LSU needs to dramatically improve on the defense end to make a deep run in March
This post was edited on 2/20/19 at 2:36 pm
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Posted on 2/20/19 at 2:33 pm to LSU Patrick
quote:
Well, shite. There goes the tourney
Historically, yes, a defense that bad will bite you in the arse come March.
You can argue with stats all you want though
Posted on 2/20/19 at 2:45 pm to sand mountainDvalues
I think the point is, as of recently, our defense hasn’t been anywhere near as bad as #63. Yes, we started off bad. We were also not a complete team and a team of 18-20 year olds that had just lost their 6th man to murder. That stuff hurts, especially for emotionally charged kids
Posted on 2/20/19 at 2:47 pm to momentoftruth87
Odds aren't in favor of it. They are good enough to absolutely, but to claim they will before even seeing brackets is rather absurd.
Posted on 2/20/19 at 2:51 pm to Gatorbait2008
Lol my guy. No one is claiming anything. It was a simple prediction. We all understand luck is involved and LSU could go out very early in the tournament. I don’t think there is any reason to believe that they couldn’t make the final 4 though. They certainly could. It’s whether they will or not
Posted on 2/20/19 at 2:53 pm to Terrific Tales
79 to Georgia
78 to Auburn
83 in regulation vs MSU
90 to Arkansas
All within the past 5 games. I would argue that is still pretty bad.
78 to Auburn
83 in regulation vs MSU
90 to Arkansas
All within the past 5 games. I would argue that is still pretty bad.
Posted on 2/20/19 at 2:54 pm to momentoftruth87
You ask on an lsu centered site?
Posted on 2/20/19 at 3:00 pm to sand mountainDvalues
Notice you left off 71 to Kentucky. Either way, for the brand of basketball we play, giving up low 80s to high 70s will almost always get us the win. Our games are just high scoring, except for UK...because they are UK
Posted on 2/20/19 at 3:01 pm to momentoftruth87
I think they make it to the elite 8.
Posted on 2/20/19 at 3:05 pm to momentoftruth87
LSU projected as a #3 seed. Strictly historically, this would give them an 11.4% chance of making the Final 4.
Pretty, pretty good for a bunch that nobody had heard of 3 months ago
ETA: a 3 seed has made the Final4 15 times. The better news? 10 of those teams went on to the Championship game.
Pretty, pretty good for a bunch that nobody had heard of 3 months ago
ETA: a 3 seed has made the Final4 15 times. The better news? 10 of those teams went on to the Championship game.
This post was edited on 2/20/19 at 3:13 pm
Posted on 2/20/19 at 3:12 pm to Vecchio Cane
I’d like to think so
Posted on 2/20/19 at 3:53 pm to momentoftruth87
I’m honestly surprised this many people said yes. I think elite 8 is probably more realistic but.....
FRICK IT WE GOING TO THA SHIP BABY
FRICK IT WE GOING TO THA SHIP BABY
Posted on 2/20/19 at 4:15 pm to momentoftruth87
short answer is yes
long answer, frick yes
long answer, frick yes
Posted on 2/20/19 at 8:35 pm to cas4t
quote:as long as Florida is not on LS-who's end of the bracket
short answer is yes
long answer, frick yes
Posted on 2/20/19 at 8:37 pm to Bulldogblitz
quote:
as long as Florida is not on LS-who's end of the bracket
Dat bump!!
Posted on 2/20/19 at 8:37 pm to momentoftruth87
quote:doin da bump
Dat bump!!
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