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Posted on 11/2/15 at 3:50 pm to Team Vote
quote:
mpressive win over powerhouse Tennessee and their huge win over Ole Miss
Posted on 11/2/15 at 3:51 pm to lsuson
quote:
Why is Bama a TD + extra point favorite over LSU?(Po
Whatever happens, the people of Alabama are still no1. in my book, so many showed their love and respect for Sid, who bled Purple and Gold. Much thank you, Bama and Aub fans.
Posted on 11/2/15 at 3:52 pm to crimsonsaint
quote:Yes.
No.
Actually, you are right. Just being a contrarian.
Posted on 11/2/15 at 3:58 pm to Team Vote
I've felt all season no power five team will go undefeated into the playoffs. Clemson has an easy road they may do it but Lsu has a tough road. Alabama is the biggest match up nightmare for Lsu. Their front seven is as good as any in the nation vs the run. Add in Lsu has not held many under 20 so their defense will probably give 24+ points here. I think Vegas sees the match up being in Alabama's favor. However, LSU will not get beatdown by any means. This will be a very close game. Unless Vegas sees something I don't I understand Bama being favored but not by a touchdown. That seems like they want the money on the Lsu side to me.
Posted on 11/2/15 at 4:01 pm to GumpDyke
Because you were -11.5 against Utah. Those lines mean as much as your sisters promise to retain her virginity at this year's family reunion.
Posted on 11/2/15 at 4:16 pm to GumpDyke
Am I crazy to think that Les Miles has been the better coach in this series in terms of "in-game" decision making and play calls? It just seems like Alabama is ALWAYS the favorite to win this game.... yet not only has LSU won a handful, but they've *nearly* won a few others that Bama probably should have won much easier.
Aside from the 21-0 drubbing in New Orleans, it seems LSU has exceeded expectations in most of their regular season contests against Bama.
Last year, they probably should have won had it not been for a collapse at the end. Same goes for the 2012 contest.
And even in 2013, I think that game produced the largest spread with Bama a very heavy favorite... and while Bama ultimately covered, it seemed to be a closer game for longer than I expected it would.
No one though LSU would go into Tuscaloosa and win the "Game of the Century" in 2011, yet they did.
It just seems to me that Miles gets more out of his less talented team when he plays Bama each time.
Maybe its my imagination, but that's how it seems to go each year to me.
Aside from the 21-0 drubbing in New Orleans, it seems LSU has exceeded expectations in most of their regular season contests against Bama.
Last year, they probably should have won had it not been for a collapse at the end. Same goes for the 2012 contest.
And even in 2013, I think that game produced the largest spread with Bama a very heavy favorite... and while Bama ultimately covered, it seemed to be a closer game for longer than I expected it would.
No one though LSU would go into Tuscaloosa and win the "Game of the Century" in 2011, yet they did.
It just seems to me that Miles gets more out of his less talented team when he plays Bama each time.
Maybe its my imagination, but that's how it seems to go each year to me.
Posted on 11/2/15 at 4:22 pm to GumpDyke
i read that 3-7 point underdog only wins ~35% - 40% of the time. so, it's not that vegas thinks lsu can't win. they just don't see it as likely. but then again, georgia was favored over bama and that was utter destruction.
Posted on 11/2/15 at 4:23 pm to GumpDyke
Why are you looking for validation, are you not confident in your team's abilities?
Posted on 11/2/15 at 4:24 pm to GumpDyke
Why was Bama an 8.5 pt favorite over Ole Miss this year?
Posted on 11/2/15 at 4:25 pm to Statestreet
Same reason Georgia was favored to beat bama...
Posted on 11/2/15 at 4:40 pm to bfniii
Las Vegas isnt trying to pick a winner, the point spread is set, and moved when needed to encourage equal money to be place on both sides. Nothing more, nothing less. As the money gets laid heavy on LSU getting 7.5 the line will be around 3 at kickoff, which is what the home field is worth.
Posted on 11/2/15 at 4:52 pm to GumpDyke
It's because Vegas gives Bama one of the most generous HFA in the country (and rightfully so). That alone accounts for at least 5 of those points.
The Ole Miss-Bama game opened at 8.5, even though many neutral observers thought it was a toss-up from a talent standpoint. The public loves them some Bama, so a TD favorite also reflects the books trying to get people to bet both sides.
The Ole Miss-Bama game opened at 8.5, even though many neutral observers thought it was a toss-up from a talent standpoint. The public loves them some Bama, so a TD favorite also reflects the books trying to get people to bet both sides.
Posted on 11/2/15 at 5:31 pm to Uncle Luke
quote:this is not what i have read. it's my understanding that at least a few books place the initial line where they think the actual outcome will be. then they move the line according to the betting. and they're not always trying to get equal action on both sides. they move it however they think they will make the most money. again, i don't know if all books operate this way.
the point spread is set, and moved when needed to encourage equal money to be place on both sides
Posted on 11/2/15 at 6:21 pm to geauxnavybeatbama
quote:Well, the bets will be heavy on the LSU side because of this line, so the only way they "make money" is for LSU to lose.
Make money. Just like when Vegas had Bama beating ole miss and Georgia beating Bama.
quote:so no.
like when Vegas had Bama beating ole miss and Georgia beating Bama.
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