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re: What grades would you give Kelly and Napier so far?
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:42 pm to SidewalkTiger
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:42 pm to SidewalkTiger
quote:
Why did you think LSU would beat Florida State?
LSU was the favorite with betting lines, has a higher level of team talent than FSU, a coach that most (including myself) perceived as being superior to FSU, was ranked significantly ahead on computer indexes that project football games and the game was in New Orleans which should have given them somewhat of a home field advantage.
Didn't you think LSU would beat FSU?
2
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:49 pm to diddlydawg7
Sample size kinda small at this point.
Napier’s had more adversity with the SOS he’s faced so far while LSU hasn’t hit the real challenges of their schedule yet to see how BK will adjust.
Napier’s had more adversity with the SOS he’s faced so far while LSU hasn’t hit the real challenges of their schedule yet to see how BK will adjust.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:49 pm to DawginSC
quote:
Didn't you think LSU would beat FSU?
It was a 50/50 game for me.
LSU has an entirely new coaching staff installing two new systems.
There is basically 0 continuity from a year ago.
Basically all of the starters at the most important positions where experience is necessary were playing together for the first time (QB, OL, DB).
Just looking at the talent composite is a 5,000 foot view of things, it doesn't take into account that LSU was playing without one 5 star due to suspension and lost another 5 star due to injury (likely the best player on the team) or that over half of LSU's starters were either first time starters or transfers.
And it isn't like Florida State is void of talent.
You also can't overlook the importance of having a prior game to work out the kinks (like catching punts) like Florida State had.
Both programs lost 7 games last year, LSU only had 39 scholarship players when Kelly arrived.
These are all facts.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:56 pm to SidewalkTiger
quote:
It was a 50/50 game for me.
LSU has an entirely new coaching staff installing two new systems.
There is basically 0 continuity from a year ago.
Basically all of the starters at the most important positions where experience is necessary were playing together for the first time (QB, OL, DB).
Just looking at the talent composite is a 5,000 foot view of things, it doesn't take into account that LSU was playing without one 5 star due to suspension and lost another 5 star due to injury (likely the best player on the team) or that over half of LSU's starters were either first time starters or transfers.
And it isn't like Florida State is void of talent.
You also can't overlook the importance of having a prior game to work out the kinks (like catching punts) like Florida State had.
Both programs lost 7 games last year, LSU only had 39 scholarship players when Kelly arrived.
These are all facts.
That's all fine, but most projections saw LSU winning this game and they didn't. All of the other games were also expected wins so Kelly hasn't had a chance to "make up" for losing a game that season projections had him winning... so right now he's not at a high grade.
Again, a grade for right now is based on what they've actually done so far... and so far LSU lost to FSU and beat Southern, New Mexico and Mississippi State. That's what we have to grade on so far.
Even if you viewed FSU as a 50/50 game... Kelly has essentially won the games he was supposed to win and lost his only 50/50 game.
That's not something that warrants better than a C-.
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 8:59 pm
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:59 pm to DawginSC
quote:
That's all fine, but most projections saw LSU winning this game and they didn't. All of the other games were also expected wins so Kelly hasn't had a chance to "make up" for losing a game that season projections had him winning... so right now he's not at a high grade.
Which projection do you put the most stock in?
Posted on 9/27/22 at 8:59 pm to diddlydawg7
Both of them are good coaches but Napier will take a little longer to turn that program around.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:02 pm to dbuchanon
quote:
Sample size kinda small at this point.
Napier’s had more adversity with the SOS he’s faced so far while LSU hasn’t hit the real challenges of their schedule yet to see how BK will adjust.
This place is gonna be an absolute shite show the week of the UF/LSU game.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:05 pm to SidewalkTiger
quote:
Which projection do you put the most stock in?
I don't really pick one. I tend to look at a bunch and go with consensus.
When it comes to how teams should be ranked, I generally look at the massey composite as the best indicator. A large quantity averaged tends to eliminate outliers well.
LINK
Here are what the pre-season composite showed. FSU at #53, LSU at #36.
LINK
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:05 pm to DawginSC
Utah, Kentucky, and Tennessee all ranked ahead of UF. Hmm...
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:06 pm to MullenBoys
quote:
Both of them are good coaches
Are you suggesting that both teams actually made a good hire?
Is that even possible?
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:07 pm to diddlydawg7
Kelly : I incomplete. Play a decent team and let’s see how they do
Napier: C+ understands the roster limitations and still has the team playing hard for him.
Napier: C+ understands the roster limitations and still has the team playing hard for him.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:20 pm to DawginSC
quote:
When it comes to how teams should be ranked, I generally look at the massey composite as the best indicator. A large quantity averaged tends to eliminate outliers well.
LINK
Here are what the pre-season composite showed. FSU at #53, LSU at #36.
LINK
I mean that looks pretty bad only 4 weeks in, are those teams underperforming or is it just bad guesswork?
For a supposed "numbers" guy, I find your grading method to be quite odd.
You're using the Florida State game as a wildly disproportionate indicator of Kelly's coaching ability, he lost by one point in a game where he was favored by three.
So basically the difference between him being a good or bad coach based on your grading system is whether his kicker made a field goal or not.
Kicker makes the field goal, he's a good head coach.
Kicker doesn't and he's a bad head coach.
That's rather ridiculous sounding when you look at everything that goes into being a head coach.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:28 pm to diddlydawg7
B for both
Napier has the better quality win and the harder schedule so far. Kelly seems to have momentum and is heading towards an impressive recruiting season
Both are imprinting new systems. I like the early culture shift (especially on defense) at LSU so far but we have games @ Auburn and vs Tennessee that will show more.
Napier has the better quality win and the harder schedule so far. Kelly seems to have momentum and is heading towards an impressive recruiting season
Both are imprinting new systems. I like the early culture shift (especially on defense) at LSU so far but we have games @ Auburn and vs Tennessee that will show more.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:29 pm to Partha
Both made good hires n got their guy.
Both seem to have their teams playing hard.
Really all you can ask for at this point as they rebuild
Both seem to have their teams playing hard.
Really all you can ask for at this point as they rebuild
This post was edited on 9/27/22 at 9:32 pm
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:34 pm to MetroAtlantaGatorFan
quote:
Guess you missed when Mullen went for 2 against Bama and wasted a timeout in the process in the SECCG.
Well he was in the sec championship, coaching against saban. Name another coach who has done better vs saban in the sec championship game?
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:34 pm to jnethe1
Moving the goalposts.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:37 pm to diddlydawg7
Kelly- B
Napier- C
Napier- C
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:47 pm to 3down10
quote:
Ok, let's look. 2022 College Football Team Talent Composite #8 LSU #12 Florida
Composite rankings are a very skewed way to look at a football team. LSU has 3 first round picks at wide receiver but also has 2 true freshman starting on the offensive line and a secondary made up of transfers. The dline will hold their own against anyone but the linebackers are very thin and inexperienced outside of one player. The team has a couple position groups that are great but also lacks depth and experience in others.
As for letter grades? I think Kelly should be an A since he inherited a team with 40 players during a time when every single player wanted to transfer and put together a team that should at least be competitive in every game. I don’t think Napier had to deal with the behind the scenes stuff Kelly did but he also had his team ready and competing against a very tough schedule.
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:52 pm to MetroAtlantaGatorFan
Losing to Kentucky should never be a “thing” at BHG stadium. Ever
Posted on 9/27/22 at 9:55 pm to MetroAtlantaGatorFan
quote:
Moving the goalposts.
Stating facts relevant to the topic at hand. Whether you choose to acknowledge those facts does not determine their legitimacy.
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