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re: Week 8 SP+ Picks
Posted on 10/17/19 at 9:51 am to SummerOfGeorge
Posted on 10/17/19 at 9:51 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:Not the smart people.
LSU 38 (-18.5) - Mississippi St 24 (maybe we're all missing something between this and the line? I don't get it)
I predicted 41-24.
State will come out swinging after their last two disasters on the road. LSU probably comes out flat after Florida.
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Posted on 10/17/19 at 9:56 am to Odysseus32
quote:
I don't put any stock in these, because I don't really believe in relying on predictive models to tell what's going to happen in a game where a star player could have a bad game because he woke up in the wrong mood.
Well - I agree, it's not concrete. But generally it gives a pretty good idea of how a game is going to play out.
Is it dead on accurate 100%? No, nothing is. But it generally spits out data that is close to how a game plays out. And if it doesn't, it's usually because of things that are different than usual (turnovers, red zone issues, etc).
I mean, you say you don't put stock in it for your picks, but did you see USC/UGA going the way it went or the way it was predicted? I don't even think Carolina people expected it to turn out that way.
This post was edited on 10/17/19 at 9:57 am
Posted on 10/17/19 at 10:38 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
LSU 38 (-18.5) - Mississippi St 24 (maybe we're all missing something between this and the line? I don't get it)
I think it's because we've had back to back road losses and the team will be excited to play at home behind the bells. LSU might be riding a little high after a big home win against rival Florida. That's the only thing I can think of. This team is soft and completely incapable of playing in hostile road environments. LSU still covers.
This post was edited on 10/17/19 at 10:40 am
Posted on 10/17/19 at 10:42 am to SummerOfGeorge
All of the algorithms seemed high on MSU's roster this year. Maybe the algorithms just can't figure out how to account for how bad their coach is. 
I see no way MSU covers that spread. Should be 55-3 by half time.
I see no way MSU covers that spread. Should be 55-3 by half time.
Posted on 10/17/19 at 12:03 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
So if you bet every game against the line the last half decade strictly on SP+ predictions you'd be sitting very pretty.
Okay, so if you are a gambler it might be helpful. I don't gamble.
Posted on 10/17/19 at 12:17 pm to Odysseus32
quote:
that was an outlier, shite like that happens all the time.
Posted on 10/17/19 at 10:15 pm to Sun God
quote:
They’ve heavily underestimated LSUs offense all season so I’m not surprised. Whatever predicative math used hasn’t been accurate at all on that front.
of course it's underestimated LSU's offense. LSU's offense has pretty much hit its best possible outcome. Any LSU fan who says they thought before the season that LSU would have one of the 2 or 3 best offenses in the country is lying.
Posted on 10/17/19 at 10:21 pm to Odysseus32
quote:
That's not entirely true. Saying it's math makes it seem like this concrete thing that yields only correct results. It's data to which he applies his own weights.
I don't put any stock in these, because I don't really believe in relying on predictive models to tell what's going to happen in a game where a star player could have a bad game because he woke up in the wrong mood.
For example, the week 7 pick for UGA/SC was 36-17 in favor of the dawgs. While I understand that was an outlier, shite like that happens all the time.
They are fun numbers to look at, but I put absolutely no stock into them when I'm deciding my picks.
It's a probabilistic projection. It's always going to give you what it sees as the single most likely outcome out of a vast number of possible outcomes. That doesn't mean that the particular outcome it forecasts is likely to happen; in fact, they'll barely ever nail the score exactly. It's a median result; if the math is right each team will outperform the projection roughly half the time.
Posted on 10/17/19 at 10:29 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Bet the farm on LSU easy money
Posted on 10/18/19 at 12:01 am to WildTchoupitoulas
Context eludes the best of us, don't feel bad about it.
Posted on 10/18/19 at 12:04 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Alabama : 42
LSU : 39
Alabama
8.02 YPA
554 yards on 69 plays
LSU
8.22 YPA
567 yards on 69 plays
Oh Lawd
Posted on 10/18/19 at 12:05 am to SummerOfGeorge
That LSU line is screaming to pick LSU....so I went State and points. I cant even make sense of why it's not higher but for that sole reason..I'm betting on it lol. Find if I cant say why a lkne is where it is that Vegas knows something and I go against the money
Posted on 10/18/19 at 12:12 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Alabama (-34.5) 41 - Tennessee 14
This subtle troll of the predicted score was not lost on me.
Posted on 10/18/19 at 12:35 am to SummerOfGeorge
I feel like this is a game where our defense is going to be fired up after what happened last time we went there and we hold them under 14 points.
Posted on 10/18/19 at 12:39 am to SummerOfGeorge
George - you don’t think Alabama and Florida cover? What are your reasons?
Posted on 10/18/19 at 12:53 am to SummerOfGeorge
We're scoring 24 on LsU???? Hahahahah
Posted on 10/18/19 at 1:04 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
LSU 38 (-18.5) - Mississippi St 24
-18.5 isn't for the game fellas, that's after lsu's first 3 drives lol
Posted on 10/18/19 at 1:34 am to Hogfan13
quote:
All of the algorithms seemed high on MSU's roster this year. Maybe the algorithms just can't figure out how to account for how bad their coach is. I see no way MSU covers that spread. Should be 55-3 by half time.
Did you check the MSU rosters? players being suspended and injuries? That took toll on the team in general.
Posted on 10/18/19 at 4:24 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
LSU 38 (-18.5) - Mississippi St 24 (maybe we're all missing something between this and the line? I don't get it)
What don't you get? Mississippi St. is not that good. Their Defense doesn't get a ton of pressure and their offense is really inconsistent. I am surprised the line is not higher to be honest. LSU 56 State 24.
This post was edited on 10/18/19 at 4:29 am
Posted on 10/18/19 at 7:28 am to stelly1025
quote:
What don't you get?
quote:
I am surprised the line is not higher to be honest.
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