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Week 8 SP+ Picks
Posted on 10/17/19 at 8:42 am
Posted on 10/17/19 at 8:42 am
Week 8 SP+ picks
Auburn 34 (-19.5) - Arkansas 16
Florida 27 (-6) - South Carolina 21
LSU 38 (-18.5) - Mississippi St 24 (maybe we're all missing something between this and the line? I don't get it)
Missouri (-21) 40 - Vanderbilt 16
Georgia (-25) 39 - Kentucky 15
Texas A&M (-6.5) 31 - Ole Miss 23
Alabama (-34.5) 41 - Tennessee 14
Auburn 34 (-19.5) - Arkansas 16
Florida 27 (-6) - South Carolina 21
LSU 38 (-18.5) - Mississippi St 24 (maybe we're all missing something between this and the line? I don't get it)
Missouri (-21) 40 - Vanderbilt 16
Georgia (-25) 39 - Kentucky 15
Texas A&M (-6.5) 31 - Ole Miss 23
Alabama (-34.5) 41 - Tennessee 14
16
Posted on 10/17/19 at 8:44 am to SummerOfGeorge
Yea so LSU is going to score the least amount of points they have on the year against a team that just lost to Tennessee. Gotta love that logic there. No way hell we score less than 45.
Posted on 10/17/19 at 8:44 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
LSU 38 (-18.5) - Mississippi St 24 (maybe we're all missing something between this and the line? I don't get it)
Maybe because it’s a road game sandwiched between UF and AU? Who knows
Posted on 10/17/19 at 8:44 am to TexasTiger88
I don't know people put any stock in these things. 
Posted on 10/17/19 at 8:46 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Florida 27 (-6) - South Carolina 21
I have no doubt this will be the best game of the weekend.
Posted on 10/17/19 at 8:50 am to TexasTiger88
quote:
Yea so LSU is going to score the least amount of points they have on the year against a team that just lost to Tennessee. Gotta love that logic there. No way hell we score less than 45.
I mean, it's not logic. It's math.
Posted on 10/17/19 at 8:51 am to SummerOfGeorge
I would take Kentucky and the points all day long. The weather in Athens this Saturday looks to be rainy and chilly, which will likely make for a lower scoring game
Posted on 10/17/19 at 8:52 am to LSU Patrick
quote:
I don't know people put any stock in these things.
Well it's 57% against the spread this year and has been > 50% for the past 6 years I believe.
So if you bet every game against the line the last half decade strictly on SP+ predictions you'd be sitting very pretty.
This post was edited on 10/17/19 at 8:53 am
Posted on 10/17/19 at 8:53 am to SummerOfGeorge
They’ve heavily underestimated LSUs offense all season so I’m not surprised. Whatever predicative math used hasn’t been accurate at all on that front.
This post was edited on 10/17/19 at 8:55 am
Posted on 10/17/19 at 8:54 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Georgia (-25)
dafuq
Posted on 10/17/19 at 8:54 am to SummerOfGeorge
Does SP+ take trap game scenarios into account? That's the only reason I can think that LSU would come out slow. They can name the score against MSU if they wanted, and I don't think Brady/Burrow would choose only 38.
Posted on 10/17/19 at 8:55 am to Sun God
quote:
They’ve heavily underestimated LSUs offense all season so I’m not surprised. Whatever predicative math used hasn’t been accurate at all on that front.
Biggest thing there is it takes a long time to get all the prior season/preseason stuff out, and LSU this year is clearly an insano opposite from everything they've ever done before, so it takes a while to catch up there.
Posted on 10/17/19 at 8:55 am to GRTiger
quote:
Does SP+ take trap game scenarios into account? That's the only reason I can think that LSU would come out slow. They can name the score against MSU if they wanted, and I don't think Brady/Burrow would choose only 38.
Yea I truly don't get it - but I mean the line isn't even over 20 either, so I have no idea. Vegas' line/OU right now equate out to LSU 40 - MSU 22, basically.
It makes no sense to me.
This post was edited on 10/17/19 at 8:58 am
Posted on 10/17/19 at 8:56 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
dafuq
Kentucky is pretty bad.
Posted on 10/17/19 at 9:00 am to SummerOfGeorge
The lines for UT-Bama and LSU-State line up for the early line for LSU-Bama. Interesting
Posted on 10/17/19 at 9:01 am to Sun God
quote:
The lines for UT-Bama and LSU-State line up for the early line for LSU-Bama. Interesting
Yea - I ran my very stupid model for LSU-Bama and it came out about exactly how everyone would expect. The difference in the line and my margin is in all likelihood the fact that alot of the bad Alabama defensive numbers in mine are from garbage time and not included in Vegas/SP+/etc models.
Alabama : 42
LSU : 39
Alabama
8.02 YPA
554 yards on 69 plays
LSU
8.22 YPA
567 yards on 69 plays
- Alabama averages 151% of opponents YPA averages
- Alabama gives up 99% of opponents YPA averages
- LSU averages 139% of opponents YPA averages
- LSU gives up 103% of opponents YPA averages
This post was edited on 10/17/19 at 9:02 am
Posted on 10/17/19 at 9:02 am to SummerOfGeorge
GOD DAMN YOU CADE YORK
I might not survive that game
I might not survive that game
Posted on 10/17/19 at 9:03 am to Sun God
quote:
GOD DAMN YOU CADE YORK
I might not survive that game
Yea it's absolutely going to be stroke inducing
America is gonna fvckin love it. All of us emotionally invested are gonna need morphine shots, though.
This post was edited on 10/17/19 at 9:04 am
Posted on 10/17/19 at 9:37 am to SummerOfGeorge
THIS! 
Posted on 10/17/19 at 9:49 am to SummerOfGeorge
I will be the first to admit that SP+ is about as good as it get as far as predictive models go, but...
That's not entirely true. Saying it's math makes it seem like this concrete thing that yields only correct results. It's data to which he applies his own weights.
I don't put any stock in these, because I don't really believe in relying on predictive models to tell what's going to happen in a game where a star player could have a bad game because he woke up in the wrong mood.
For example, the week 7 pick for UGA/SC was 36-17 in favor of the dawgs. While I understand that was an outlier, shite like that happens all the time.
They are fun numbers to look at, but I put absolutely no stock into them when I'm deciding my picks.
quote:
I mean, it's not logic. It's math.
That's not entirely true. Saying it's math makes it seem like this concrete thing that yields only correct results. It's data to which he applies his own weights.
I don't put any stock in these, because I don't really believe in relying on predictive models to tell what's going to happen in a game where a star player could have a bad game because he woke up in the wrong mood.
For example, the week 7 pick for UGA/SC was 36-17 in favor of the dawgs. While I understand that was an outlier, shite like that happens all the time.
They are fun numbers to look at, but I put absolutely no stock into them when I'm deciding my picks.
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