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re: (Very) Early SEC Predictions
Posted on 2/8/11 at 10:07 am to Koolaidkidiz
Posted on 2/8/11 at 10:07 am to Koolaidkidiz
quote:quote:
Good luck defending a title with the loss of 24 players, including 4/5 of the offensive line, 3/4 of the defensive line, two LBs, three DBs, two WRs, starting QB, kicker and punter. Auburn would have to seriously overachieve to get beyond 7-8 wins. It's hard enough defending a title with leaders back. It's going to be down right impossible with all that youth, and the leadership gone. Not to mention replacing so much in the trenches (the single most important units in the SEC).
Great points Capstone. Defending a title is no joke even with players considered leaders returning. LSU's title defenses under Saban in 04 and Miles in 08 is proof. I would tell my Bama friend that this year and it played out. When you are the champ, the bullseye is on your back. It's so much different playing as the hunter opposed to the hunted. Also, Auburn, it never goes away. You are always the hunted from now on. You saw that with Florida last year and even Bama this year in their defenses. I know the losses were huge on defense for Bama, but even with the Heisman winner back, the leader QB, and to me best WR in College Football, it was tough being the hunted.
You geniuses seem to think there is no middle ground between winning a title and going 7-5.
(Though I'm sure if there's a way to go 7-5 *and* win a title, LSU is the team to figure out a way to do it.)
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Posted on 2/8/11 at 10:08 am to RollTide1987
SEC West
1)LSU
2)Alabama
3)Mississippi State
4)Arkansas
5)Auburn
6)Ole Sis
SEC EAST
1)South Carolina
2)Florida
3)Georgia
4)Tennessee
5)Kentucky
6)Vandy
1)LSU
2)Alabama
3)Mississippi State
4)Arkansas
5)Auburn
6)Ole Sis
SEC EAST
1)South Carolina
2)Florida
3)Georgia
4)Tennessee
5)Kentucky
6)Vandy
Posted on 2/8/11 at 10:09 am to beatbammer
quote:
You geniuses seem to think there is no middle ground between winning a title and going 7-5.
(Though I'm sure if there's a way to go 7-5 *and* win a title, LSU is the team to figure out a way to do it.)
Look. I get it. You won a title, and feel invincible. I didn't listen to Gator fans after 2009. They didn't listen to LSU fans after 2006. So on and so forth. Facts are facts. Sure, you could defend it, but it's not likely with those personell losses.
Posted on 2/8/11 at 10:16 am to CapstoneGrad06
quote:
Look. I get it. You won a title, and feel invincible. I didn't listen to Gator fans after 2009. They didn't listen to LSU fans after 2006. So on and so forth. Facts are facts. Sure, you could defend it, but it's not likely with those personell losses.
This.
LSU wins title in 2007- 2008 loses 5 games. Why? Lots of losses on the OL and DL
Fla wins title in 2008- was pretty good in 2009 because they returned Tebow and alot of very good players- but graduation caught up with them in 2010. 5 losses
Bammer wins title in 2009- but returned quite a few on the OL and DL- plus most of their skill people on offense. Still loses 3 games.
Aubarn wins in 2010- heavy hit by graduation- especially on the OL and DL. Is going to lose 5 games in 2011.
It isnt rocket science
Posted on 2/8/11 at 10:22 am to CapstoneGrad06
quote:
Look. I get it. You won a title, and feel invincible. I didn't listen to Gator fans after 2009. They didn't listen to LSU fans after 2006. So on and so forth. Facts are facts. Sure, you could defend it, but it's not likely with those personell losses.
Exactly, Auburn fans face it....you're going to go 8-4 or 7-5 next season.
Posted on 2/8/11 at 10:29 am to RebelNutt48
quote:As if people don't say the SEC cheats enough as it is...
WEST:
LSU 7-1
Alabama 7-1
Arkansas 6-2
Auburn 5-3
Ole Miss 4-4
Miss. State 4-4
EAST:
Georgia 6-2
Florida 5-3
South Carolina 4-4
Tennessee 4-4
Kentucky 3-5
Vanderbilt 1-7
Posted on 2/8/11 at 10:36 am to NaturalBeam
The schedule flips on Auburn this year and they will have a huge target on their backs.
We ran into a buzzsaw at SC last year the crowd was in a frenzy and they played their best game of the year. It was rough at LSU too.
Schedule flips for Bama too we got a lot of the tough ones at home and for this reason plus a ton of returning starters I think we win the West.
SEC West winner should win the title in Atlanta
We ran into a buzzsaw at SC last year the crowd was in a frenzy and they played their best game of the year. It was rough at LSU too.
Schedule flips for Bama too we got a lot of the tough ones at home and for this reason plus a ton of returning starters I think we win the West.
SEC West winner should win the title in Atlanta
This post was edited on 2/8/11 at 10:38 am
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:00 am to TheoreticalTiger
quote:
AUBURN FANS
Care to give us your predictions on this schedule next year.
2011 Auburn Football Schedule
9-3-11 UTAH STATE
9-10-11 MISSISSIPPI STATE
9-17-11 at Clemson
9-24-11 FLORIDA ATLANTIC
10-1-11 at South Carolina
10-8-11 at Arkansas
10-15-11 FLORIDA
10-22-11 at Louisiana State
10-29-11 OLE MISS
11-5-11 SAMFORD
11-12-11 at Georgia
11-19-11 OPEN
11-26-11 ALABAMA
That 5 straight SEC games stretch in October sure does look fun.
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:02 am to flomacanes
[quote]Care to give us your predictions on this schedule next year.
2011 Auburn Football Schedule
9-3-11 UTAH STATE
9-10-11 MISSISSIPPI STATE
9-17-11 at Clemson
9-24-11 FLORIDA ATLANTIC
10-1-11 at South Carolina
10-8-11 at Arkansas
10-15-11 FLORIDA
10-22-11 at Louisiana State
10-29-11 OLE MISS
11-5-11 SAMFORD
11-12-11 at Georgia
11-19-11 OPEN
11-26-11 ALABAMA
That 5 straight SEC games stretch in October sure does look fun.[/quote]
I thought the same thing.
Look for my prediction in early June.
2011 Auburn Football Schedule
9-3-11 UTAH STATE
9-10-11 MISSISSIPPI STATE
9-17-11 at Clemson
9-24-11 FLORIDA ATLANTIC
10-1-11 at South Carolina
10-8-11 at Arkansas
10-15-11 FLORIDA
10-22-11 at Louisiana State
10-29-11 OLE MISS
11-5-11 SAMFORD
11-12-11 at Georgia
11-19-11 OPEN
11-26-11 ALABAMA
That 5 straight SEC games stretch in October sure does look fun.[/quote]
I thought the same thing.
Look for my prediction in early June.
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:05 am to beatbammer
quote:
Wow... a bammer fan picks Auburn to go 7-5.
How very, very rare
What is wrong with that prediction? You're losing 20+ seniors, 3 leading JRs AND you guys don't have a lot of depth yet.
Get that shite out of here.
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:11 am to UASports23
quote:
guys don't have a lot of depth yet.
really?
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:14 am to parkjas2001
Depth is a little more than just true freshman and true sophomores.
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:15 am to CapstoneGrad06
Very true.
Most will be surprised at how many actually got meaningful snaps last year though.
Most will be surprised at how many actually got meaningful snaps last year though.
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:18 am to Marines4Auburn
MS State is returning one of the most experienced teams in the SEC next year. And one of the best QB's. Will miss seeing you around...
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:20 am to MaroonNation
quote:
And one of the best QB's.
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:21 am to MaroonNation
quote:
And one of the best QB's
Well.......
This post was edited on 2/8/11 at 11:22 am
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:23 am to Woopigsooie20
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:23 am to Woopigsooie20
quote:
Woopigsooie20
mademydaykthxbye
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:27 am to CoonassBulldog
quote:
LSU wins title in 2007- 2008 loses 5 games. Why? Lots of losses on the OL and DL
Fla wins title in 2008- was pretty good in 2009 because they returned Tebow and alot of very good players- but graduation caught up with them in 2010. 5 losses
Bammer wins title in 2009- but returned quite a few on the OL and DL- plus most of their skill people on offense. Still loses 3 games.
You're cherry picking a bit.
If you look back at every BCS title winner, they all lost a lot of talent because title winning teams usually have two things in common: (1) a deep corps of senior leaders, especially on the line of scrimmage and (2) star underclassmen who raise their draft stock and bolt for the NFL.
But if you look at these champions closely something else emerges - great coaching and a great undertone of players that maybe didn't get the credit they deserve.
That's why champions tend to have a good followup season even if they don't repeat:
1999 Tennessee - finished ranked #9
2000 FSU - finished ranked #4
2001 Oklahoma - finished ranked #6
2002 Miami - finished ranked #2
2003 Ohio St - finished ranked #4
2004 LSU - finished ranked #16
2005 USC - finished ranked #2
2006 Texas - finished ranked #13
2007 Florida - finished ranked #13
2008 LSU - finished unranked
2009 Florida - finished ranked #3
2010 Alabama - finished ranked #10
You can go back pre-BCS and the results are still the same. It's very rare that a team has a bad, or even disappointing season after a NC, despite how many good players the lost.
And even when returning champions lose games, it's typically to very good opponents by very slim margins. 2004 LSU, for example, lost by 1 point on a controversial call at undefeated Auburn and then lost on a last second hail mary in the bowl game against a top 10 Iowa team.
The outlier on the list is obviously 2008 LSU who lost 5 games. But remember that 2007 LSU team was an anomoly. The only reason they won the championship was because they had to give it to somebody. That team (2007) lost two games to unranked opponents and trailed in the 4th quarter of an additional five other games. They were a paper tiger by national championship standards. It wasn't that much of a surprise that they slipped the next year. It's possible that Auburn could have a similar reversal of fortune, but it would go against the historical trend.
The most credible aspect of this argument is that the SEC West is so tough right now. Any team is good enough to make a run at the NC but getting by the other five teams is going to be murder.
Posted on 2/8/11 at 11:29 am to AUFANATL
quote:
AUFANATL
good post
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