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re: Vegas Odds Are Out on Bubble Teams Making CFP
Posted on 12/2/24 at 3:38 pm to lsufball19
Posted on 12/2/24 at 3:38 pm to lsufball19
quote:
do you really think there's no difference between LSU and Oklahoma/Vandy LSU is 8-4, 5-3 Oklahoma is 6-6, 2-6 Vandy is 6-6, 3-5
I explained it in my post, the committee is likely going to categorize teams. Bowl eligible vs. non bowl eligible. Ranked vs. not ranked. They are discussing and debating who is better among about 5 teams. They are not going to discuss and debate every single team those five teams played one by one.
For example, do you think the committee is going to spend much time debating whether Louisville or Duke is Miami’s best win? No, they aren’t, even though Duke has a better record by one game. Instead they are just going to say they are unranked bowl eligible teams. For every one of the bubble teams there will be a similar discussion.
It would help Alabama more than any of the SEC teams for LSU to be ranked. Alabama beat LSU, Ole Miss and USC both lost to them. But, they aren’t currently ranked and whether LSU is better than some other unranked team who is bowl eligible doesn’t really help them. It doesn’t matter to the committee if a team is 26th or 43rd or 52nd, they are an unranked win/loss. They are going to rely on the strength of schedule and strength of record metrics to sort that out.
We have learned from 10 years of this, just with a four team format instead of twelve, that the committee categorizes opponents. Ranked vs. unranked, P4 vs. G5, FBS vs. FCS, and bowl eligible vs. non-bowl eligible. I know it is human nature as an LSU fan to be offended but it wasn’t a dig against LSU to say they are unranked. It is just the current situation. (Now that comment about being LSU fans always being offended, that comment was a dig.). This debate is about Bama vs. Clemson vs. South Carolina vs. SMU vs. Ole Miss. Not LSU vs. Vandy vs. Oklahoma vs. Florida or any other SEC teams sitting between 6-6 and 8-4.
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Posted on 12/2/24 at 3:46 pm to captdalton
quote:
I explained it in my post, the committee is likely going to categorize teams. Bowl eligible vs. non bowl eligible. Ranked vs. not ranked. They are discussing and debating who is better among about 5 teams. They are not going to discuss and debate every single team those five teams played one by one.
I know what you explained in your post. You're making a guess at how you think the committee will categorize teams, a guess I think is ignorant and wishful thinking
I think it is very unlikely the committee views the #26 team (unranked) the same as the 77th bowl eligible team.
quote:
It would help Alabama more than any of the SEC teams for LSU to be ranked.
We'll just ignore you wanting the committee look at your losses to Oklahoma/Vandy the same as any other "bowl eligible" loss. They're not the same and won't be looked at the same by the committee.
quote:
We have learned from 10 years of this
You just made up everything after this. This only thing we've learned is every committee has used different arguments and criteria to rank teams, even week to week, much less year to year
quote:
I know it is human nature as an LSU fan to be offended but it wasn’t a dig against LSU to say they are unranked.
I don't take it as a dig against LSU. I take it as you wanting paint your losses to Vandy and Oklahoma in a very different light than reality
Posted on 12/2/24 at 3:59 pm to Hussss
Those are interesting. Do they really think SMU is that big of a favorite vs Clemson? Otherwise it makes little sense seeing how Bama’s odds are pretty good
Posted on 12/2/24 at 4:10 pm to momentoftruth87
He’s Serraneaux too.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 4:20 pm to lsufball19
quote:
I think it is very unlikely the committee views the #26 team (unranked) the same as the 77th bowl eligible team.
That is where strength of schedule comes in. The playoff selection committee is not debating and ranking every single team.
quote:
You're making a guess at how you think the committee will categorize teams, a guess I think is ignorant and wishful thinking
We have ten years of history with a playoff committee choosing teams. Every year there is a pissed off team or two. And every year the committee chairman goes on ESPN and explains why they picked who they did. And every year they talk about strength of schedule, strength of record, wins versus ranked teams, head to head matchups. I can never once recall the chairman saying “Team A got in because they beat an 8-4 team while team B only beat a 6-6 team”. No, that is what strength of schedule and strength of record do for them. They say “we choose Team A because their strength of schedule was ranked 7th while team B’s was 52nd. In addition Team A had 3 ranked wins against top 25 opponents while Team B only had one. Because of this we feel Team A should be ranked ahead of team B”.
But maybe I am ignorant; maybe this committee will be different than the previous ten.
And yes, whether they admit it or not, brand recognition and TV viewership is considered.
quote:
You just made up everything after this. This only thing we've learned is every committee has used different arguments and criteria to rank teams, even week to week, much less year to year
Every year they say they looked at the same things; overall record of course; but beyond that strength of schedule, strength of record, wins against ranked teams, head to head results. Every year. The way they weight things may change some year to year. But they are not debating every single record of every single potential playoff teams schedule. Why would they when that is what strength of schedule is for?
I think with the networks wanting to keep marque out of conference games being scheduled, despite it being dumb if you want to make a 12 team playoff, they will put extra emphasis on strength of schedule like basketball did years back.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 4:20 pm to Cleary Rebels
quote:
He’s Serraneaux too.
Now that I will take as an insult.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 4:34 pm to lsufball19
quote:
I take it as you wanting paint your losses to Vandy and Oklahoma in a very different light than reality
So what is that? I paint them as two road losses to .500 P4 schools.
They are so bad they dropped Alabama’s strength of schedule down to 17 and strength of record down to 10.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 5:51 pm to olemissfan26
quote:I mentioned this earlier in the season, and got downvoted to hell
Need an NIT bracket for leftover teams
But I think it's a valid idea. Bowls are dying, but you still need a postseason reward for a "good" year... before you bitch about that, consider that the NFL has 14 playoff spots for 32 teams.
CFB has 12 playoff spots, for 100+ teams.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 5:55 pm to gamecockman12
quote:
Bama hardly getting punished for a 3-touchdown loss at OU is mind boggling.
Yep and a loss at Vandy which finished 6-6
Posted on 12/2/24 at 5:58 pm to Hussss
Miami played one single opponent that's currently ranked (#23/#25 Syracuse) and lost. They should be first out.
Posted on 12/2/24 at 6:02 pm to captdalton
Cajun Bama and Serraneaux are the same people.
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