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Vandy, Auburn, Tenn do not belong where they were seeded. Check Record & Vegas
Posted on 5/26/25 at 11:46 am
Posted on 5/26/25 at 11:46 am
True rankings can be found on betting sites. You'll always find the real truth of what the smartest people think when you track Vegas odds. And obviously the smartest people think different than the committee.
Auburn is in a 4-way tie at 8th (so could be 11th highest odds in a tie breaker). Vandy is ranked 7th. Auburn lost 18 games and had 38 wins. That is not 4 seed caliber. It just isn't. Way too many bad losses that don't offset the good wins. Tennessee far too low ranking. 43-16 and 3rd highest Vegas odds, yet seeded 14th.
Committee is absolutely horrible. I don't think any of these guys watch college baseball. This was a really, really bad group decision by them.
Like I said to previous poster, if there was a Polling Service, a Committee, a Person, a Website, an Anything that was more accurate consistently than Vegas, then there would be a millionaire or billionaire off sports betting because it would be exploited. Except there isn't. That means there is nothing more accurate than Vegas over time.
Trust me, if some group, some person, some site consistently beat Vegas over time, there would be exploitation and millionaires/billionaires off sports betting. But that doesn't exist.
CWS Winner Odds
1. Arkansas Razorbacks+450
2. LSU Tigers+500
3. Tennessee Volunteers+750
4. Texas Longhorns+900
T-5. Georgia+1000
T-5. North Carolina Tar Heels+1000
7. Vanderbilt Commodores+1500
T-8. Florida+2000
T-8. FSU +2000
T-8. Oregon +2000
T-8. Auburn+2000
Auburn is in a 4-way tie at 8th (so could be 11th highest odds in a tie breaker). Vandy is ranked 7th. Auburn lost 18 games and had 38 wins. That is not 4 seed caliber. It just isn't. Way too many bad losses that don't offset the good wins. Tennessee far too low ranking. 43-16 and 3rd highest Vegas odds, yet seeded 14th.
Committee is absolutely horrible. I don't think any of these guys watch college baseball. This was a really, really bad group decision by them.
Like I said to previous poster, if there was a Polling Service, a Committee, a Person, a Website, an Anything that was more accurate consistently than Vegas, then there would be a millionaire or billionaire off sports betting because it would be exploited. Except there isn't. That means there is nothing more accurate than Vegas over time.
Trust me, if some group, some person, some site consistently beat Vegas over time, there would be exploitation and millionaires/billionaires off sports betting. But that doesn't exist.
CWS Winner Odds
1. Arkansas Razorbacks+450
2. LSU Tigers+500
3. Tennessee Volunteers+750
4. Texas Longhorns+900
T-5. Georgia+1000
T-5. North Carolina Tar Heels+1000
7. Vanderbilt Commodores+1500
T-8. Florida+2000
T-8. FSU +2000
T-8. Oregon +2000
T-8. Auburn+2000
This post was edited on 5/26/25 at 1:14 pm
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Posted on 5/26/25 at 11:47 am to Saunson69
Posted on 5/26/25 at 11:47 am to Saunson69
Everything is pointing towards Arkansas this year.
Posted on 5/26/25 at 11:47 am to Saunson69
We swept AU and got swept by VU but it really doesn't matter.
Posted on 5/26/25 at 11:54 am to Saunson69
Using futures markets to determine any pecking order in any sport is not wise.
Posted on 5/26/25 at 11:59 am to DylanSampson4Heisman
quote:
Everything is pointing towards Arkansas this year.
Yep. It’s the Omahogs year.
Posted on 5/26/25 at 12:02 pm to Saunson69
Just cancel the tournament then since Vegas has already decided the outcome.
Posted on 5/26/25 at 12:03 pm to Vandyrone
quote:
Using futures markets to determine any pecking order in any sport is not wise.
It's actually the most wise thing to do compared to any other person or group's opinion. Vegas makes money for a reason. I trust Vegas futures over any polling, RPI, or committee.
This post was edited on 5/26/25 at 12:05 pm
Posted on 5/26/25 at 12:04 pm to reVealed
Vandy is being disrespected by Vegas for sure. Arkansas is the frontrunner for a reason though. Most complete team.
Posted on 5/26/25 at 12:05 pm to DylanSampson4Heisman
Difference between Arkansas and LSU is negligible though. Not sure if that's just because people have a preconceived bias that LSU is the best college baseball program, so it influences them without watching any college baseball.
Posted on 5/26/25 at 12:06 pm to Saunson69
Thankfully the ncaa doesn’t take its marching orders from Vegas ….
quote:
Committee is absolutely horrible. I don't think any of these guys watch college baseball. This was a really, really bad group decision by them.
Posted on 5/26/25 at 12:08 pm to Saunson69
True. Both have a favorable draw to get to Omaha. The biggest travesty of the bracket is that they are going to play in the first round of the CWS.
Posted on 5/26/25 at 12:10 pm to Saunson69
It doesn’t matter!!!!
I love LSU’s regional and pairing with Clemson far better than Auburns pairing with Coastal and Florida and Arkansas’ pairing with Tennessee.
I love LSU’s regional and pairing with Clemson far better than Auburns pairing with Coastal and Florida and Arkansas’ pairing with Tennessee.
Posted on 5/26/25 at 12:10 pm to Saunson69
quote:
True rankings can be found on betting sites. You'll always find the real truth of what the smartest people think when you track Vegas odds.
These are not the same
Posted on 5/26/25 at 12:10 pm to Saunson69
Cry harder
Posted on 5/26/25 at 12:14 pm to Saunson69
quote:
It's actually the most wise thing to do compared to any other person or group's opinion. Vegas makes money for a reason.
Then you don’t understand nuances of futures markets. They’re not like regular betting lines and their movement is almost nonexistent. The reason being is that they don’t offer the opposite betting option. You can’t bet on Arkansas to NOT win the CWS. Early season favorites in futures markets will remain favorites throughout the year even if they underperform. A&M had no chance of getting in today and they were still the 13th ranked futures option at +4000. Teams that play well late in the year will see their odds slowly reduced but nothing reactionary like in-game betting or specific game line movement.
Once again, the reason futures are far different is that there isn’t an opposing betting option for any team that you can try and take advantage of because of some line movement that didn’t react fast enough. Vegas has the luxury of sitting on early season favorites and slowly move up and comers because of this.
This post was edited on 5/26/25 at 12:17 pm
Posted on 5/26/25 at 12:33 pm to Vandyrone
As a Tenn fan I don’t get the love Vegas is giving us. We can beat anybody in the country in 1 game but the run to being Omaha champs requires 3-4 good starters. After 1 and 2 our starting pitchers are dog poo.
Posted on 5/26/25 at 12:36 pm to hooperj75
Honestly the idea that the teams should be seeded based on Vegas' or anyone else's subjective opinion of who is most likely to win, rather than what happened on the field throughout the season, is a trash take anyway.
Posted on 5/26/25 at 12:55 pm to Vandyrone
No, It's you that doesn't understand how Vegas over time is vastly more accurate at ranking than any polling service, committee, or individual. Otherwise it would get exploited and people would be millionaires off sports betting. It's also inaccurate to say they set pre-season and don't move on teams performance. That's just false.
What are you talking about betting on not to win? If they aren't getting bets or are losing, then the odds go up. No need for a "not to win CWS" bet. The odds are based on real time quant data and how people choose who is going to win. More based on real time quant data than what public chooses, but public can have some effect. You don't need a "not going to win option". The odds shift up and down for teams based on who is losing, winning, and getting bets. If Tenn gets no bets or Tenn lost their last 5, then it goes +700 to +1000. No need for a not to win option.
Yes TAMU had whatever ranking odds as they are the whatever ranked team in true talent and must've been a strong bubble team, not "no chance at all". They didn't make it, so now removed. That's on the committee. +4000 odds yesterday absolutely meant they had a decent chance to get in. If TAMU was in the tourney, they'd likely beat every 3 or 4 seed out there because that's their true talent. They're better than 4 seed Southern Jaguars or whoever. Committee doesn't rank on true talent and made a mistake not inputting TAMU as evidenced by their CWS odds being vastly better than teams outside the top 25. For example, LSU 2022 before TAMU at 9-2 had +300 odds to make CFP, when they lost to TAMU it went to like +10,000. The odds change.
Once again, if there was an individual, committee or polling service that is more accurate than Vegas, then there'd be stories of millionaires made off sports betting as they'd exploit that flaw. Trust me, if that flaw existed, it'd be exploited. Except there isn't. As Vegas is most accurate over time.
I am sure that if you did a study of the past 25 years on who the committee set as the overall 1 seed vs who Vegas showed as the CWS favorite, Vegas would be more accurate. That was definitely the case in 2023 when LSU was the Vegas CWS favorite, yet the committee gave them a 5 seed. Once again highlighting that they are inaccurate.
I like to put it this way. Vegas is not God. They do not know the definitive future, but over periods of time they know the future better than any humans outside Vegas.
What are you talking about betting on not to win? If they aren't getting bets or are losing, then the odds go up. No need for a "not to win CWS" bet. The odds are based on real time quant data and how people choose who is going to win. More based on real time quant data than what public chooses, but public can have some effect. You don't need a "not going to win option". The odds shift up and down for teams based on who is losing, winning, and getting bets. If Tenn gets no bets or Tenn lost their last 5, then it goes +700 to +1000. No need for a not to win option.
Yes TAMU had whatever ranking odds as they are the whatever ranked team in true talent and must've been a strong bubble team, not "no chance at all". They didn't make it, so now removed. That's on the committee. +4000 odds yesterday absolutely meant they had a decent chance to get in. If TAMU was in the tourney, they'd likely beat every 3 or 4 seed out there because that's their true talent. They're better than 4 seed Southern Jaguars or whoever. Committee doesn't rank on true talent and made a mistake not inputting TAMU as evidenced by their CWS odds being vastly better than teams outside the top 25. For example, LSU 2022 before TAMU at 9-2 had +300 odds to make CFP, when they lost to TAMU it went to like +10,000. The odds change.
Once again, if there was an individual, committee or polling service that is more accurate than Vegas, then there'd be stories of millionaires made off sports betting as they'd exploit that flaw. Trust me, if that flaw existed, it'd be exploited. Except there isn't. As Vegas is most accurate over time.
I am sure that if you did a study of the past 25 years on who the committee set as the overall 1 seed vs who Vegas showed as the CWS favorite, Vegas would be more accurate. That was definitely the case in 2023 when LSU was the Vegas CWS favorite, yet the committee gave them a 5 seed. Once again highlighting that they are inaccurate.
I like to put it this way. Vegas is not God. They do not know the definitive future, but over periods of time they know the future better than any humans outside Vegas.
This post was edited on 5/26/25 at 1:48 pm
Posted on 5/26/25 at 1:10 pm to DylanSampson4Heisman
I'd take Vegas seeding over this Committee.
Like I said to previous poster, if there was a Polling Service, a Committee, a Person, a Website, an Anything that was more accurate consistently than Vegas, then there would be a millionaire or billionaire off sports betting because it would be exploited. Except there isn't. That means there is nothing more accurate than Vegas.
Trust me, if something or someone or some group was more accurate than Vegas, then it would be exploited.
Like I said to previous poster, if there was a Polling Service, a Committee, a Person, a Website, an Anything that was more accurate consistently than Vegas, then there would be a millionaire or billionaire off sports betting because it would be exploited. Except there isn't. That means there is nothing more accurate than Vegas.
Trust me, if something or someone or some group was more accurate than Vegas, then it would be exploited.
This post was edited on 5/26/25 at 1:12 pm
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