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re: Texas @ Florida line has moved from -7.5 to -4.5
Posted on 10/3/25 at 7:14 pm to SECCaptain
Posted on 10/3/25 at 7:14 pm to SECCaptain
We need you to win so our matchup is top 10
0
Posted on 10/3/25 at 7:54 pm to SECCaptain
quote:
If the line moved last Sunday, you might have a point.
I'm not sure what you are talking about. What point am I making? I'm bewildered at the line movement
Posted on 10/3/25 at 8:05 pm to joshnorris14
Sharps bet as soon as lines come out, movement during the week happens for several reasons. Sometimes it's straight manipulation and has nothing to do with betting trends/patterns
Posted on 10/3/25 at 8:10 pm to joshnorris14
The freaking swamp is Legitimately hard place to play, particularly early in the season
Posted on 10/3/25 at 8:11 pm to SECCaptain
Play the line always never try to guess. Watch it, if it moves more than 2 place a bet opposite. Never assume you know CFB more than Vegas. You do not. Learned that often when betting.
Posted on 10/3/25 at 8:14 pm to TutHillTiger
The heat is insane..no wind, metal stands, lots of moisture is the air, easily feels like over 100 degrees for early games. It is very, very humid.
Posted on 10/3/25 at 8:14 pm to Gatorbait2008
The OU/tx line has been out awhile. Started at tx -11.5 and as of today its -3.5
Posted on 10/3/25 at 8:20 pm to OU Guy
Hmm.vegas does not think Texas is elite it seems.
Posted on 10/3/25 at 8:25 pm to Gatorbait2008
Vegas wins because it exploits the public, the vast majority of which are completely uniformed bettors. Here's your guaranteed 55-60% win rate this weekend
PITT -4.5
OREGON STATE +1.5 O53.5
LOUISVILLE -6.5 U62.5
MARYLAND +7.5 U53.5
JAMES MADISON -17.5 U54.5
MIAMI(OH) +1.5
PENN STATE U50.5
TEXAS STATE -8.5 U65.5
OLD DOMINION -14 U54.5
TEXAS TECH -8.5
UNLV -3.5 U53.5
DUKE -1.5 O56.5
MEMPHIS -20.5 AND U57
UTSA -6.5
FLORIDA STATE +7.5 O53.5
ILLINOIS -9.5 O55.5
MISS STATE +16 AND U58.5
TEXAS -5.5 AND U42.5
SAN DIEGO STATE -4.5 AND U41.5
NEW MEXICO +3.5 AND U58.5
Most of these are betting the spread or total and simply taking the other for hedging, not parlays. E.g. Miami/Florida State total may be under 53.5, but if it is then Miami isn't covering -7.5. Inverse is true with over and Miami covering. Best bet is obviously Florida State +7.5 and O53.5 as it has an intrinsic hedge with a solid probability of both hitting, and you can close either early dependent upon game script
Any spreads larger than 9 should be closed before 4Q if covered by less than 2 TD at start of 4Q. Several O/U should be closed prior to 2h kickoff dependent upon game script and who gets ball
Get back to me Sunday and tell me more about Vegas
PITT -4.5
OREGON STATE +1.5 O53.5
LOUISVILLE -6.5 U62.5
MARYLAND +7.5 U53.5
JAMES MADISON -17.5 U54.5
MIAMI(OH) +1.5
PENN STATE U50.5
TEXAS STATE -8.5 U65.5
OLD DOMINION -14 U54.5
TEXAS TECH -8.5
UNLV -3.5 U53.5
DUKE -1.5 O56.5
MEMPHIS -20.5 AND U57
UTSA -6.5
FLORIDA STATE +7.5 O53.5
ILLINOIS -9.5 O55.5
MISS STATE +16 AND U58.5
TEXAS -5.5 AND U42.5
SAN DIEGO STATE -4.5 AND U41.5
NEW MEXICO +3.5 AND U58.5
Most of these are betting the spread or total and simply taking the other for hedging, not parlays. E.g. Miami/Florida State total may be under 53.5, but if it is then Miami isn't covering -7.5. Inverse is true with over and Miami covering. Best bet is obviously Florida State +7.5 and O53.5 as it has an intrinsic hedge with a solid probability of both hitting, and you can close either early dependent upon game script
Any spreads larger than 9 should be closed before 4Q if covered by less than 2 TD at start of 4Q. Several O/U should be closed prior to 2h kickoff dependent upon game script and who gets ball
Get back to me Sunday and tell me more about Vegas
This post was edited on 10/3/25 at 10:44 pm
Posted on 10/3/25 at 9:20 pm to GreatPumpkin
quote:
A Manning in the Swamp. What could possibly go wrong?
Very underrated post. Peyton had problems with Florida.
Posted on 10/3/25 at 9:22 pm to Sid E Walker
quote:but Eli didn’t against Zook
Very underrated post. Peyton had problems with Florida.
Peyton struggled against spurrier
Gaypier is a poor man’s zook
Posted on 10/3/25 at 9:37 pm to Gatorbait2008
quote:
The heat is insane.
The high tomorrow is 80 degrees.
Posted on 10/3/25 at 11:56 pm to BellsOfTheGrind
bettors know texas sux
Posted on 10/4/25 at 2:50 am to joshnorris14
Arch is adopted
Posted on 10/4/25 at 5:40 am to dallastiger55
quote:
Gonna be a rainy muddy game. That will slow Texas down
Texas will slow Texas down
Posted on 10/6/25 at 10:41 am to BellsOfTheGrind
Good Call 
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