*Super Dee Duper Official X's and O's discussion of LSU vs Alabama Thread*

Bump. Will participate when I'm on computer instead of phone

Matchup to watch for- Alabama wide receivers against LSU corners....in the running game. Gehrig Deiter has the 2nd highest grade in the country for eligible receivers when it comes to run blocking. Stewart and Ridley are also very good blockers. This springs the chunk yardage plays on the ground. A Tennessee corner got put on skates on that reverse a few weeks ago that went for a touchdown. Just blocked out of the play for 4 or 5 seconds. How good are White and Jackson at getting off blocks and tackling guys in space?

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What does the FPI say?

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FPI has Alabama with a 65.5% chance of winning

Massey has Alabama with an 83% chance of winning (28-14 is their score)

S&P+ has Alabama with a 64% chance of winning (29-23 is their score)

My keys to success:

LSU: O line needs to play lights out--allow Fournette and Guice to run downfield--give Etling time to air it out some, Donte Jackson needs to watch out with the PI calls, LSU D must contain Hurts and stop the run. LSU needs to just worry about the next first down--short passing plays. Alabama's DBs are serviceable and our WRs have looked better so I feel confident in that match up. For once in this match-up, the better offense will win the game. Both D's are stout.



Bama 24 LSU 17

The biggest two man on man match-ups will be the centers vs the nose tackles.

I'm sticking with the 12 personnel for lsu

DeSean smith is a matchup nightmare for bamas lbs and a new fs in the game. It allows quick throws and they can also chip the pass rushers before running delayed routes in the flat. Plus it's less predictable than the i formation

Some in the weeds Line of Scrimmage stats (since this will in all likelihood decide the football game). These are S&P+ analytical stats

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OPPORTUNITY RATE - This is the percentage of carries in which the offensive line "does its job" and produces at least five yards of rushing for the runner. (Generally speaking, the first five yards are considered the line's responsibility, the next five are split evenly between the runner and the line, and anything over 10 yards is all on the runner.) See Highlight Yards and Adj. Line Yards for more information.

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Opportunity Rate
LSU Offensive Line : 12th
Alabama Defensive Line : 3rd

Alabama Offensive Line : 5th
LSU Defensive Line : 4th

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Stuff Rate - This is the percentage of runs where the runner is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. Since being stuffed is bad, offenses are ranked from stuffed least often (No. 1) to most often (No. 125); for defenses, the opposite is true.

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Stuff Rate
LSU Offensive Line : 43rd
Alabama Defensive Line : 10th

Alabama Offensive Line : 76th
LSU Defensive Line : 88th

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Have you done your comparative stats post yet? Always interesting to look over.

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I was actually just looking for it because I posted something like that late last week, but I couldn't find it. I'll figure it out tonight and throw it up here.

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The biggest two man on man match-ups will be the centers vs the nose tackles.

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100% agree. Will open up or throw a wrench in everything else.

For LSU to run the ball they are gonna have to move Daron Payne. I don't think they can. They won't get wide against the Bama ends and backers.

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How good are White and Jackson at getting off blocks and tackling guys in space?

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Less that they are good at getting off blocks once engaged, and more that they are extremely hard to even engage with in the first place. Donte Jackson will be without a doubt the quickest CB you will play against all year. White might be #2. Plus White plays a ton in the slot when there are 3 WRs, so when he can go either direction on an outside run, he is really hard to block.