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SP Returning Production : 2017-2020 and results
Posted on 2/10/20 at 8:14 am
Posted on 2/10/20 at 8:14 am
2020
16. Texas A&M
25. Kentucky
32. South Carolina
35. Ole Miss
50. Tennessee
58. Arkansas
59. Georgia
61. Florida
71. Vanderbilt
78. Auburn
84. Alabama
100. Missouri
110. Mississippi St
127. LSU
2019 (2018 to 2019 records)
2. Tennessee (5-7 to 8-5)
15. LSU (10-3 to 15-0)
26. Florida (10-3 to 11-2)
45. South Carolina (7-6 to 4-8)
63. Alabama (14-1 to 11-2)
69. Georgia (11-3 to 12-2)
73. Arkansas (2-10 to 2-10)
81. Missouri (8-5 to 6-6)
84. Auburn (8-5 to 9-4)
91. Vanderbilt (6-7 to 3-9)
92. Mississippi St (8-5 to 6-7)
102. Texas A&M (9-4 to 8-5)
114. Kentucky (10-3 to 8-5)
116. Ole Miss (5-7 to 4-8)
2018 (2017 to 2018 records)
8. Mississippi St (9-4 to 8-5)
21. Florida (4-7 to 10-3)
35. Texas A&M (7-6 to 9-4)
40. Arkansas (4-8 to 2-10)
47. Auburn (10-4 to 8-5)
50. Kentucky (7-6 to 10-3)
52. Missouri (7-6 to 8-5)
67. South Carolina (9-4 to 7-6)
77. Ole Miss (6-6 to 5-7)
95. Georgia (13-2 to 11-3)
103. Alabama (13-1 to 14-1)
108. Vanderbilt (5-7 to 6-7)
113. Tennessee (4-8 to 5-7)
122. LSU (9-4 to 10-3)
2017 (2016 to 2017 records)
7. Kentucky (7-6 to 7-6)
8. South Carolina (6-7 to 9-4)
9. Georgia (8-5 to 13-2)
10. Vanderbilt (6-7 to 5-7)
31. Missouri (4-8 to 7-6)
50. Florida (9-4 to 4-7)
56. Auburn (8-5 to 10-4)
63. Mississippi St (6-7 to 9-4)
73. Alabama (14-1 to 13-1)
90. Arkansas (7-6 to 4-8)
107. Texas A&M (8-5 to 7-6)
109. Tennessee (9-4 to 4-8)
110. Ole Miss (5-7 to 6-6)
111. LSU (8-4 to 9-4)
2017 Returning Production
2018 Returning Production
2019 Returning Production
16. Texas A&M
25. Kentucky
32. South Carolina
35. Ole Miss
50. Tennessee
58. Arkansas
59. Georgia
61. Florida
71. Vanderbilt
78. Auburn
84. Alabama
100. Missouri
110. Mississippi St
127. LSU
2019 (2018 to 2019 records)
2. Tennessee (5-7 to 8-5)
15. LSU (10-3 to 15-0)
26. Florida (10-3 to 11-2)
45. South Carolina (7-6 to 4-8)
63. Alabama (14-1 to 11-2)
69. Georgia (11-3 to 12-2)
73. Arkansas (2-10 to 2-10)
81. Missouri (8-5 to 6-6)
84. Auburn (8-5 to 9-4)
91. Vanderbilt (6-7 to 3-9)
92. Mississippi St (8-5 to 6-7)
102. Texas A&M (9-4 to 8-5)
114. Kentucky (10-3 to 8-5)
116. Ole Miss (5-7 to 4-8)
2018 (2017 to 2018 records)
8. Mississippi St (9-4 to 8-5)
21. Florida (4-7 to 10-3)
35. Texas A&M (7-6 to 9-4)
40. Arkansas (4-8 to 2-10)
47. Auburn (10-4 to 8-5)
50. Kentucky (7-6 to 10-3)
52. Missouri (7-6 to 8-5)
67. South Carolina (9-4 to 7-6)
77. Ole Miss (6-6 to 5-7)
95. Georgia (13-2 to 11-3)
103. Alabama (13-1 to 14-1)
108. Vanderbilt (5-7 to 6-7)
113. Tennessee (4-8 to 5-7)
122. LSU (9-4 to 10-3)
2017 (2016 to 2017 records)
7. Kentucky (7-6 to 7-6)
8. South Carolina (6-7 to 9-4)
9. Georgia (8-5 to 13-2)
10. Vanderbilt (6-7 to 5-7)
31. Missouri (4-8 to 7-6)
50. Florida (9-4 to 4-7)
56. Auburn (8-5 to 10-4)
63. Mississippi St (6-7 to 9-4)
73. Alabama (14-1 to 13-1)
90. Arkansas (7-6 to 4-8)
107. Texas A&M (8-5 to 7-6)
109. Tennessee (9-4 to 4-8)
110. Ole Miss (5-7 to 6-6)
111. LSU (8-4 to 9-4)
2017 Returning Production
2018 Returning Production
2019 Returning Production
7
Posted on 2/10/20 at 8:15 am to SummerOfGeorge
So the stat means dick?
Carry on.
Carry on.
Posted on 2/10/20 at 8:16 am to RollTide1987
quote:
So the stat means dick?
It means something, but it's just one piece of the puzzle for sure. Scan the list and the teams in the top 20 of returning talent with good coaching almost all seem to improve while teams that don't almost all seem to stay the same.
This post was edited on 2/10/20 at 8:18 am
Posted on 2/10/20 at 8:26 am to RollTide1987
I think it pretty obviously shows how OP recruiting can be
Posted on 2/10/20 at 8:28 am to JGuidry7
quote:
I think it pretty obviously shows how OP recruiting can be
Right - returning production matters to some extent for everyone, because experience is a big deal. It matters much more for those who have lower talent across the board as they win on the margins with experience, but those teams also have to have good coaching to maximize that experience. If you see a team with solid coaching and really good talent in the top 10 or 20 of returning production (LSU 2019, as an example) it's probably worth giving a double take.
While we laugh at them, Texas A&M definitely fits somewhere in there (not to the extent of LSU last year, but definitely in terms of making a jump). Kentucky has proven what they can do with experienced teams so they jump off the page too.
South Carolina, on the other hand, I'm not sure you can make a conclusion there based on the last few years.
Also - how is Florida always in the top 50-60? I guess they just haven't had a whole lot of guys leave early or something?
This post was edited on 2/10/20 at 8:32 am
Posted on 2/10/20 at 8:32 am to SummerOfGeorge
Completely agree. With that said, all eyes are on our friends at 16 ..
Posted on 2/10/20 at 8:35 am to JGuidry7
quote:
With that said, all eyes are on our friends at 16 ..
Yep - this is certainly the year for them to make a move. Not necessarily win the national title or anything, but legitimately challenge for the division and a NY6 bowl for sure. I think it's fair to say anything less than that type of season would be a big disappointment.
This post was edited on 2/10/20 at 8:37 am
Posted on 2/10/20 at 9:18 am to SummerOfGeorge
So LSU has outperformed it's returning production every year. Yeah all the ingrediets of a one hit wonder.
Posted on 2/10/20 at 9:21 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
It means something, but it's just one piece of the puzzle for sure.
You misunderstand me. Perhaps I should have explained in my OP, but it means nothing in the context of what LSU fans want it to mean.
So long as Alabama hauls in a Top 5 recruiting class every year, loss of production will be negligible due to the fact that extremely talented athletes are behind them waiting to take their place in the rotation.
Anyone who argues that recruiting is overhyped and that rankings are overrated do not know what they are talking about. Statistics bear this out. The more Top 10 recruiting classes you have on your roster, the greater chance you have at winning the national championship. If you're a fan of a team that has a history of competing at a high level, and your coach is bringing in recruiting classes outside the Top 10, your chances of winning it all are practically zero.
This post was edited on 2/10/20 at 9:25 am
Posted on 2/10/20 at 9:22 am to r2d2
quote:
So LSU has outperformed it's returning production every year. Yeah all the ingrediets of a one hit wonder.
I think it's pretty clear LSU's bottom floor in general is 3-4 losses. They've only lost more than 4 games 3 times since 2000 (2002, 2008, 2014).
Posted on 2/10/20 at 9:33 am to SummerOfGeorge
Looks like this actually matters (no shocker there).
Add in the schedule not being one of the most difficult all time and Jimbo about to earn that 7.5 M yall care so much about.
Add in the schedule not being one of the most difficult all time and Jimbo about to earn that 7.5 M yall care so much about.
This post was edited on 2/10/20 at 9:35 am
Posted on 2/10/20 at 9:34 am to Farmer1906
quote:
Add in the schedule not being one of the most difficult all time and Jimbo about to earnt that 7.5 M yall care so much about.
tYear of Jimbo
Posted on 2/10/20 at 9:36 am to RollTide1987
quote:
You misunderstand me. Perhaps I should have explained in my OP, but it means nothing in the context of what LSU fans want it to mean.
So long as Alabama hauls in a Top 5 recruiting class every year, loss of production will be negligible due to the fact that extremely talented athletes are behind them waiting to take their place in the rotation.
Anyone who argues that recruiting is overhyped and that rankings are overrated do not know what they are talking about. Statistics bear this out. The more Top 10 recruiting classes you have on your roster, the greater chance you have at winning the national championship. If you're a fan of a team that has a history of competing at a high level, and your coach is bringing in recruiting classes outside the Top 10, your chances of winning it all are practically zero.
Absolutely - Alabama is in the Bottom 25% of this list almost every single year.
And this year they are at #84 and it could be argued they should be a tad higher given they are bringing back 2 upperclassmen starters on defense who didn't play at all or played sparingly in 2019 and were replaced by true freshmen.
This list gives some insight and can definitely be used to get an idea on some teams, but there's additional factors that determine whether bringing back experience matters or not.
Posted on 2/10/20 at 10:11 am to SummerOfGeorge
I honestly still can’t believe we got to 8 wins with our QB situation.
Posted on 2/10/20 at 10:13 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
73. Arkansas (2-10 to 2-10)
Posted on 2/10/20 at 10:23 am to SummerOfGeorge
So what you’re saying is since LSU improves its win total every year regardless of returning production we are gonna win 16 games next year? Sweet.
Posted on 2/10/20 at 10:28 am to RollTide1987
quote:
So the stat means dick?
Carry on.
He touches on it in an article somewhere, but it basically points to the extremes of this number being strong indicators... middle is less telling. And overall means less than each side of the ball... Like a 80% returning production on the offensive side of the ball is typically an indicator of something like +4-5 ppg, and similarly on defense reducing points scored against.
Ultimately, you can make stats tell you what you want if you try hard enough, but this one is a pretty easy correlation to draw. To George's point, for the teams that traditionally are in the top 5-10 of recruiting and perennial top 25 teams or better, you generally weather the attrition storm a little better due to better coaching.
Posted on 2/10/20 at 10:36 am to fibonaccisquared
quote:
Ultimately, you can make stats tell you what you want if you try hard enough, but this one is a pretty easy correlation to draw. To George's point, for the teams that traditionally are in the top 5-10 of recruiting and perennial top 25 teams or better, you generally weather the attrition storm a little better due to better coaching.
And teams who recruit to a system and know how to coach that system generally profit the most from experienced rosters - Missouri, Kentucky lately, State w/ Mullen all had 2-3 win jumps in years with high experience.
State in 2018 clearly should have had a 2-3 win jump but JoMo just flat out fricked it up.
Posted on 2/10/20 at 10:37 am to SummerOfGeorge
He didn’t recruit to Mullen’s system though.
Posted on 2/10/20 at 10:42 am to djsdawg
quote:
He didn’t recruit to Mullen’s system though.
He had the best defense in the country, an above average o-line, a good stable of backs and a great running QB.
Losing at home to Florida and losing that bowl game to Iowa were disgraceful - especially for a guy who was supposedly known for his ability to adapt his scheme to the personnel.
This post was edited on 2/10/20 at 10:43 am
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