re: SEC Preseason Power Rankings (Baseball)

quote:

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It's going to be a lot like last year.

LSU and Vandy are both still stacked while South Carolina and Mississippi State will be a tier below talent-wise but will have a shot at getting hot at the right time to make a postseason run.

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I disagree that USC's talent is that much lower than either LSU's or Vandy's talent:

Collegiate Baseball:

2013:
UF: 1st
MSU: 2nd
LSU: 10th
USC: 11th
Vandy: 23rd
Arky: 33rd

2012:
Vandy: 1st
LSU: 4th
UF: 7th
USC: 10th
Arky: 26th
MSU: 37th

2011:
USC: 1st
Vandy: 2nd
LSU: 7th
UF: 8th
Arky: 19th
MSU: 20th

2010:
LSU: 1st
UF: 5th
USC: 7th
Vandy: 10th
Arky: 14th
MSU: 18th

Average Ranking:

UF: 5.25
LSU: 5.5
USC: 7.25
Vandy: 9.0
MSU: 19.25
Arky: 23.0

Baseball America:

2013:
UF: 1st
USC: 3rd
MSU: 9th
Vandy: 20th
LSU: 26th*
Arky: 26th*

2012:
Vandy: 1st
LSU: 14th
USC: 16th
Arky: 21st
UF: 22nd
MSU: 26th*

2011:
Vandy: 1st
USC: 6th
MSU: 14th
UF: 15th
Arky: 22nd
LSU: 26th*

2010:
LSU: 2nd
UF: 6th
Arky: 8th
Vandy: 12th
USC: 19th
MSU: 22nd

Average Ranking:

Vandy: 8.5
USC: 11.0
UF: 11.0
LSU: 17.0
MSU: 17.75
Arky: 19.25

* - Baseball America's rankings only gives the top 25: several of the above teams did not make the top 25 ranking in a number of BA's rankings above, so for ranking purposes I gave each of those teams a fictional ranking of "26th" in order to make the numbers work.

So for each ranking service over the past 4 classes, USC is within 2-3 ranking spots of the top averages in the SEC. That's hardly enough of a difference to say that USC is a "tier below" any other program in the conference. Don't forget that the Gamecocks were pretty young and inexperienced last season, plus had some injury issues of their own especially with their Ace Pitcher Montgomery missing a portion of the early season as well as having thin depth in the bullpen. USC still was one single win shy of returning to Omaha for the 4th consecutive season...

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based on returning players, players learning the new sc system or what?

shouldn't the more talented team that returns more talented players beat the teams that it beat last season?

what logic should we use for preseason rankings?

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Arkansas was the 2nd SEC series of the season for the Gamecocks, after Missouri. Montgomery was down with injury for the series, and we tried Evan Beal as the Friday starter against y'all, which turned out to be a failed experiment. But according to class rankings, USC has by far the better talent than Arkansas, and only one cycle out of both services brought in a lower ranked class than the Razorbacks. And last year's results were atypical of recent results as USC was 7-2 versus Arky in the previous 3 series before then...

USC misses both MSU and LSU during the SEC schedule this season: we host Ole Miss, UT, UF, Bama, and Missouri while traveling to UK, Arky, AU, UGA, and Vandy. The Arky and Vandy away series will be critical series, while the Ole Miss and UF home series will also be tough. UK has also played us pretty tough in recent years....