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Scoring Offense/Defense Analysis - Alabama/LSU
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:25 pm
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:25 pm
Since this subject came up, let's go into a bit more detail. (including the Jacksonville State game)
LSU scores 6.1 ppg more than its opponents allow
LSU allows 17.2 ppg fewer than its opponents score
Alabama scores 15.7 ppg more than its opponents allow.
Alabama allows 16.6 ppg fewer than its opponents score.
Factoring the numbers:
Alabama model
Alabama - 31
LSU - 13
LSU model
Alabama - 27
LSU - 21
LSU scores 6.1 ppg more than its opponents allow
LSU allows 17.2 ppg fewer than its opponents score
Alabama scores 15.7 ppg more than its opponents allow.
Alabama allows 16.6 ppg fewer than its opponents score.
Factoring the numbers:
Alabama model
Alabama - 31
LSU - 13
LSU model
Alabama - 27
LSU - 21
16
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:27 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
LSU fans are gonna be very upset
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:28 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
This post has me very upset
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:28 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
So the average of those would be
Bama 29 l5u 17
Bama minus 12
OR Bama -9 factoring 3pts for home field .
Bama 29 l5u 17
Bama minus 12
OR Bama -9 factoring 3pts for home field .
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:28 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Since both of your models are predicting an LSU loss can we cancel the game and save embarrassment?
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:29 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Op - you get an F unless you can show your work
You know the drill
You know the drill
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:30 pm to Old Sarge
A couple of aggies touching each other in a Bama/LSU thread when:
a.) The game won't be for another 2 weeks, and
b.) A&M actually has a game this weekend.
a.) The game won't be for another 2 weeks, and
b.) A&M actually has a game this weekend.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:30 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Alabama's defense has scored 56 pts through 8 games, is that factored into those numbers?
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:32 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
Yes based on available stats this seems to be fair, but the caveat will be if LSU's offense has really made the move to being better under O. If yes, then the prior stats will have minimal insight into the outcome of the game
This should be a good game. I think the only problem I see for LSU is the lack of mobility from etling. Bama has fricking 32 sacks and something like 18 INT's with 12 defensive TD's scored? That is fricking big numbers.
Also, can LSU line find some push to get LF and guide some yards? If Bama shuts down their run it could be a long night for LSU, offensively. However, LSU defense is pretty damn good minus some DT play being suspect at times.
This should be a good game. I think the only problem I see for LSU is the lack of mobility from etling. Bama has fricking 32 sacks and something like 18 INT's with 12 defensive TD's scored? That is fricking big numbers.
Also, can LSU line find some push to get LF and guide some yards? If Bama shuts down their run it could be a long night for LSU, offensively. However, LSU defense is pretty damn good minus some DT play being suspect at times.
This post was edited on 10/25/16 at 12:37 pm
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:32 pm to RT1941
quote:
Alabama's defense has scored 56 pts through 8 games, is that factored into those numbers?
I'm sure it's factored in to the " Bama scores xxx more than three opponent's allow" statement. Most scoring averages are total score, not offensive scores.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:32 pm to WildTchoupitoulas
quote:
b.) A&M actually has a game this weekend.
And what a huge game it is.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:34 pm to RockyMtnTigerWDE
quote:
Yes based on available stats this seems to be fair, but the caveat will be if LSU's offense has really made the move to being better under O. If yes, then none of the prior stats mean anything.
Which is a fair point.
But it's also a fair point that Alabama's defense has improved since a September trip to Oxford.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:34 pm to CGSC Lobotomy
You should try rerunning those numbers with LSU's last three games, because the first four are now irrelevant.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:35 pm to TxTiger82
quote:
You should try rerunning those numbers with LSU's last three games, because the first four are now irrelevant.
Lol.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:35 pm to RockyMtnTigerWDE
quote:
Yes based on available stats this seems to be fair, but the caveat will be if LSU's offense has really made the move to being better under O. If yes, then none of the prior stats mean anything.
The prior stats certainly matter. They just include 2 teams that have vastly superior defenses than anything Bama has faced, to this point.
This post was edited on 10/25/16 at 12:38 pm
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:36 pm to TxTiger82
Last 3 games is LSU offense +11.4
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:37 pm to VermilionTiger
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:37 pm to CapstoneGrad06
True, which why I gave such high praise to the Bama defense.
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:37 pm to Triple Daves
quote:
Last 3 games is LSU offense +11.4
Which probably means LSU wins the "LSU model."
Posted on 10/25/16 at 12:38 pm to TxTiger82
quote:
Which probably means LSU wins the "LSU model."
Per my quick calculation in my head they lose 27-25 but I could be off.
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