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re: Ranking the 1-Loss Playoff Teams by Quality Wins
Posted on 11/21/19 at 1:27 pm to BHMKyle
Posted on 11/21/19 at 1:27 pm to BHMKyle
Is no one going to tell me how 2017 Wisconsin (12-1) was not even in the discussion but 2017 Alabama (11-1) was an obvious Playoff Team?
Again, I'm not saying Wisconsin should have gone ahead of Alabama, but their resumes were very similar. Very similar. And one of those teams was included in the Playoff and we were supposed to all take it at face value as not even confrontational at all.... and the other team was set into a pile on the other side of the table as not even being considered.
Please someone tell me why Alabama's 2017 resume was far and away better than Wisconsin's. I've never heard anyone tell me why there was such a giant gap in those program's accomplishments that year.
Again, I'm not saying Wisconsin should have gone ahead of Alabama, but their resumes were very similar. Very similar. And one of those teams was included in the Playoff and we were supposed to all take it at face value as not even confrontational at all.... and the other team was set into a pile on the other side of the table as not even being considered.
Please someone tell me why Alabama's 2017 resume was far and away better than Wisconsin's. I've never heard anyone tell me why there was such a giant gap in those program's accomplishments that year.
This post was edited on 11/21/19 at 1:29 pm
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Posted on 11/21/19 at 1:33 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Yea I'd have no issue with that. They should be ahead of Oregon too - and quite frankly, not that far behind Clemson (if at all). I'd rank them the same way the Strength of Record metric does 1-6 1. LSU 2. Ohio State 3. Georgia 4. Clemson 5. Penn State 6. Alabama 7. Minnesota 8. Oregon 9. Oklahoma 10. Utah 11. Baylor
Except everyone on the committee knows that OSU will beat the brakes off of Penn State. They are just projecting a bit. Penn State will not be a part of the top 6 after Saturday.
This post was edited on 11/21/19 at 1:34 pm
Posted on 11/21/19 at 1:35 pm to BHMKyle
You're not wrong, but at the same time if you really want to look at these things you can trace a sort of logic to it.
Why is Minnesota a top 10 team?
Because they beat Penn State, right?
Why were they so much lower prior to that game?
Because they had:
A 7-point win over SDSU (FCS)
A 3-point double OT win over Fresno State (4-6)
A 3-point win over Georgia Southern (6-4 G5)
A 7-point win over Purdue (4-6)
Minnesota was teetering on the bottom of the Top 25, because despite being undefeated they were struggling against teams they shouldn't struggle with. Still they won, so they were ranked.
Then they beat Penn State, and had their signature win. They rocketed up the polls. Almost immediately afterwards, they lost.
If you look at the entire season, the team that has the most argument to be above Alabama is Penn State (as you stated). Their SoR is higher, and is the only one higher out of teams that are not in the top 4 (Alabama's is 6, PSU's is 5). Penn State only struggled with one mediocre team (Pitt) - all other close games were against ranked opponents.
That said, the same argument can be made regarding Oregon and Utah (both with significantly lower SOS than Alabama and Penn State), but both are also ranked above Penn State. If we take the rankings at face value and not presume some maneuvering (i.e. setting up the Utah/Oregon winner to leap frog Alabama, dropping the UGA/LSU loser out, etc), then the committee is also saying that Oregon (1 loss, SOS #44) and Utah (1 loss, SOS #50) are better playoff contenders than Penn State (1 loss, SOS #25).
Why is Baylor behind 3 2-loss teams? The same logic applied to Minnesota could be applied to them, but Minn is above all 3 of those 2-loss teams. Despite Minnesota's SOS (61) being worse than Baylor's (55)
Why is Minnesota a top 10 team?
Because they beat Penn State, right?
Why were they so much lower prior to that game?
Because they had:
A 7-point win over SDSU (FCS)
A 3-point double OT win over Fresno State (4-6)
A 3-point win over Georgia Southern (6-4 G5)
A 7-point win over Purdue (4-6)
Minnesota was teetering on the bottom of the Top 25, because despite being undefeated they were struggling against teams they shouldn't struggle with. Still they won, so they were ranked.
Then they beat Penn State, and had their signature win. They rocketed up the polls. Almost immediately afterwards, they lost.
If you look at the entire season, the team that has the most argument to be above Alabama is Penn State (as you stated). Their SoR is higher, and is the only one higher out of teams that are not in the top 4 (Alabama's is 6, PSU's is 5). Penn State only struggled with one mediocre team (Pitt) - all other close games were against ranked opponents.
That said, the same argument can be made regarding Oregon and Utah (both with significantly lower SOS than Alabama and Penn State), but both are also ranked above Penn State. If we take the rankings at face value and not presume some maneuvering (i.e. setting up the Utah/Oregon winner to leap frog Alabama, dropping the UGA/LSU loser out, etc), then the committee is also saying that Oregon (1 loss, SOS #44) and Utah (1 loss, SOS #50) are better playoff contenders than Penn State (1 loss, SOS #25).
Why is Baylor behind 3 2-loss teams? The same logic applied to Minnesota could be applied to them, but Minn is above all 3 of those 2-loss teams. Despite Minnesota's SOS (61) being worse than Baylor's (55)
Posted on 11/21/19 at 1:35 pm to BHMKyle
Because they don’t have to use any metric if they don’t want. A 5th grader could see Alabama was a better team than Wisconsin.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 1:42 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Is no one going to tell me how 2017 Wisconsin (12-1) was not even in the discussion but 2017 Alabama (11-1) was an obvious Playoff Team?
Wisconsin was in the discussion, I imagine. The problem with Wisconsin wasn't a comparison to Alabama, but rather the circular logic of letting them in vs Ohio State.
OSU beat them. They're in.
Wisconsin had the better record. They're in.
OSU lost by 30 and had 2 losses. They're out.
Wisconsin lost to OSU. They're out.
Wisconsin was left in a weird place because they lost to an Ohio State team that looked like a terrible Playoff contender. That loss was like a stink they could not scrub off.
OSU needed to destroy Wisconsin and prove they were the absolute, 1000000%, big boys of the Big 10.
Remember, Wisconsin went into that game #4 in the playoff polls. They win, even by a hair, and they were in. No ifs, ands, or buts.
Losing to a #8 Ohio State team meant that the committee now had to either:
Move a 1-loss Alabama team to #4 from #5
Bump a 2-loss, #8 Ohio State team to #4
It is a series of events, not a singular event.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 1:47 pm to skrayper
I can see it.
The real players are:
Can lose one and get in.
LSU
OSU
Win out and they are in
Georgia
Oregon
USC
PSU
Minnesota
Need a bit of help
Oklahoma
Baylor
Alabama
IMO If Georgia hadn’t lost to USC, they could get in with SECCG loss. Now they have to beat LSU. LSU is in even with a loss.
PSU loses this week to be out. I still think Minnesota has 1-2 more losses in them. So they are out. Baylor Was ranked way low for an undefeated team. I think they are out unless chaos happens. Oklahoma is paying for the KSU loss more than I thought they would.
The way the committee is treating the B12 is a bit strange to me.
The real players are:
Can lose one and get in.
LSU
OSU
Win out and they are in
Georgia
Oregon
USC
PSU
Minnesota
Need a bit of help
Oklahoma
Baylor
Alabama
IMO If Georgia hadn’t lost to USC, they could get in with SECCG loss. Now they have to beat LSU. LSU is in even with a loss.
PSU loses this week to be out. I still think Minnesota has 1-2 more losses in them. So they are out. Baylor Was ranked way low for an undefeated team. I think they are out unless chaos happens. Oklahoma is paying for the KSU loss more than I thought they would.
The way the committee is treating the B12 is a bit strange to me.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 2:20 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Is no one going to tell me how 2017 Wisconsin (12-1) was not even in the discussion but 2017 Alabama (11-1) was an obvious Playoff Team?
They absolutely should have been. But, much like Baylor and Utah this year, those teams don't get national discussion most of the time.
Also, as noted above, they got caught in the B1G situation with Ohio State.
Per Sagarin Rankings
Wisconsin
Avg Opp : #53
0-1 vs Top 10
3-1 vs Top 30
5-1 vs Top 50
#2 Ohio State (L)
#18 Iowa (W)
#20 Northwestern (W)
#26 Michigan (W)
#37 Purdue (W)
#47 Florida Atlantic (W)
#62 Minnesota (W)
#75 Nebraska (W)
#77 Maryland (W)
#89 Utah State (W)
#112 BYU (W)
#126 Illinois (W)
Alabama
Avg Opp : #59
0-1 vs Top 10
3-1 vs Top 30
4-1 vs Top 50
#8 Auburn (L)
#17 Mississippi St (W)
#19 LSU (W)
#28 Florida St (W)
#43 Texas A&M (W)
#53 Fresno St (W)
#57 Ole Miss (W)
#74 Arkansas (W)
#83 Vanderbilt (W)
#84 Colorado St (W)
#92 Tennessee (W)
#151 Mercer (W)
This post was edited on 11/21/19 at 2:29 pm
Posted on 11/21/19 at 4:33 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
They absolutely should have been. But, much like Baylor and Utah this year, those teams don't get national discussion most of the time.
So what you are telling me is that programs like Alabama always get the benefit of the doubt. That's kind of exactly what I've been saying.
The thing is, they weren't. No one thought Wisconsin belonged in the Playoff once they lost to Ohio State. And immediately following the game, every talking head at ESPN framed the debate as between Alabama and Ohio State. I wonder why?
quote:
Per Sagarin Rankings
Wisconsin
Avg Opp : #53
0-1 vs Top 10
3-1 vs Top 30
5-1 vs Top 50
quote:
Alabama
Avg Opp : #59
0-1 vs Top 10
3-1 vs Top 30
4-1 vs Top 50
So basically it boiled down to this:
Alabama = Wisconsin
Resumes were pretty much equal.
But everyone was also in agreement that Ohio State > Wisconsin since OSU just beat them head-to-head on a neutral field and Ohio State won the Big 10 Championship.
Well that's a pretty simple mathematical formula.
If Ohio State > Wisconsin.... and Wisconsin = Alabama, then Ohio State is obviously > Alabama
Yet everyone wants to pretend you're a conspiracy theorist for proposing such a notion. It's actually quite obvious to me.
No one had a problem with Ohio State coming in ahead of Wisconsin despite the fact that OSU had 2 losses. No one even contemplated that morning whether OSU would be ahead of Wisconsin. Everyone knew Ohio State would be in the #4 or #5 spot.
So if no one had a problem with OSU being ahead of Wisconsin despite an extra loss, why does everyone have a problem with them being ahead of Bama?
Posted on 11/21/19 at 4:36 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
So what you are telling me is that programs like Alabama always get the benefit of the doubt. That's kind of exactly what I've been saying.
The thing is, they weren't. No one thought Wisconsin belonged in the Playoff once they lost to Ohio State. And immediately following the game, every talking head at ESPN framed the debate as between Alabama and Ohio State. I wonder why?
It's not just Alabama - it's also Ohio State and now Clemson.
If Clemson was Baylor or TCU or Utah with their undefeated record, schedule and conference strength..........do you think they'd just be clearly written in to the playoffs right now? I don't.
quote:
If Ohio State > Wisconsin.... and Wisconsin = Alabama, then Ohio State is obviously > Alabama
Yet everyone wants to pretend you're a conspiracy theorist for proposing such a notion. It's actually quite obvious to me.
No one had a problem with Ohio State coming in ahead of Wisconsin despite the fact that OSU had 2 losses. No one even contemplated that morning whether OSU would be ahead of Wisconsin. Everyone knew Ohio State would be in the #4 or #5 spot.
So if no one had a problem with OSU being ahead of Wisconsin despite an extra loss, why does everyone have a problem with them being ahead of Bama?
Ohio State had proven that their best was very very good, but they'd also proven their worst was dog shite. And they threw out their "worst" performances more than a few times.
Not to mention, these people have eyes. They've seen Wisconsin and their cousin Michigan State play Alabama types. They lose. Every time. And most of the time, they lose badly. And this isn't "I watch one team on one TV and another on another TV and one looks better".......they've seen Wisconsin and other teams like Wisconsin play teams like Alabama/Ohio State over the last 5 years and it never goes well. Ever.
Is that completely fair? Maybe not, but Wisconsin hadn't beaten anybody elite (and still hasn't, FWIW) to prove to people they belonged. And Michigan State's trip in 2015 did not do them any favors, either.
This post was edited on 11/21/19 at 4:46 pm
Posted on 11/21/19 at 4:50 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
It's not just Alabama - it's also Ohio State and now Clemson.
There's definitely a hierarchy for sure.... Alabama is at the top ahead of Ohio State though, as evidenced by 2017.
I thought the Committee made a mistake in 2014 to put Ohio State ahead of TCU and/or Baylor. Again, it all comes down to $$$.
quote:
If Clemson was Baylor or TCU or Utah with their undefeated record, schedule and conference strength..........do you think they'd just be clearly written in to the playoffs right now? I don't.
I don't know. Clemson obviously gets the benefit of the doubt, whether its deserved or not. But it does at least help that Clemson is undefeated. If Clemson had lost to North Carolina, then I do not believe they'd be currently ranked in the Top 4. I really don't. I don't think Clemson can afford any loss if they want to make the playoff. Not with that schedule.
But if a team like Clemson runs the table, they deserve a spot as an unbeaten Power 5 Champ.
At some point, teams should be punished for playing soft schedules.... especially if they have a loss. If Clemson has one blemish on their record this season, they don't deserve to go. I feel the same way about Alabama. If you are going to play a schedule that produces a resume that does not include a Top 15 win and only one Top 25 win, you don't deserve a spot in the Playoff unless you run the table.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 5:06 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Not to mention, these people have eyes. They've seen Wisconsin and their cousin Michigan State play Alabama types. They lose. Every time.
Yes. I agree. But I've also been told with assurance from ESPN and the Committee chair that past season results have zero bearing. Is that just BS they are spewing?
I get "eye test". The problem is "eye test" will always whitewash over merit.
Alabama could lose 3 games this season... maybe even 4... and everyone would still pick them to beat a 12-1 BIG 12 Champ, Baylor. Should we just keep Alabama in that Top 4 no matter how many times they lose in a season? Should they stay in the Top 4 even if they have 3 losses? Because "eye test" says we should do just that.
At some point "eye test" becomes completely unfair. Everyone else fails the eye test if the merit is not there. But Bama.... and usually only Bama.... is given the eye test trump card despite there being no merit on the resume.
That's why they got into the BCS Title Game in 2011. That's why they got into the Playoff in 2017. That's why they are ranked well ahead of a team like Penn State currently.
That's why anyone who thinks an 11-1 Alabama gets left out this year is a fool.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 5:29 pm to BHMKyle
I think this is all a bit premature.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 6:27 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
we have a pretty clear history of apples to apples comparisons on how the ocmmittee operates. What's interesting to me is what htey'll do in a scenario we haven't bene presented with yet, namely if LSU loses the SECCG. There is precedent for htis in 2015 when undefeated iowa (top 4 of playoffs) lost to 1-loss MSU in the CCG then MSU went to playoffs and iowa finished 5th, BUT iowa's resume that year isn't close to what LSU's is this season.
Assuming OSU, Clemson, and UGA would be locks in this case, that'd leave you with:
1-loss LSU that lost their ccg
1-loss Pac 12 champ
1-loss Big 12 champ
It'd be really interesting to me what they would do and I honestly have no idea
Since the committee seems very consistent on the criteria that resumes have to be considered equal or indistinguishable before conference championship "breaks the tie" I would be shocked if they left LSU out in that scenario.
The other new "scenario" could involve Clemson if they lost a game. To my mind, this is also the only somewhat realistic chance a 1 loss Alabama gets in since Alabama's resume would boast a 2nd best win against Clemson's best win (Texas A&M) without the bad loss.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 6:57 pm to BHMKyle
The powers that be view the SEC Championship as a bye week for Alabama
Posted on 11/21/19 at 7:36 pm to BHMKyle
Let’s just for the heck of it say Ohio State losses to Peen State this weekend! LSU wins out beats UGA wouldn’t that also open the door for Bama to get in
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