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Ranking the 1-Loss Playoff Teams by Quality Wins
Posted on 11/21/19 at 10:56 am
Posted on 11/21/19 at 10:56 am
Going back to 2014, there have been 14 teams make the playoff with a loss. Most all of those had 3 or 4 wins against Top 25 Opponents in the Final Playoff Rankings.
Here are those teams ranked by the number of Quality Wins...
WINS VS. FINAL TOP 10 OPPONENTS:
3- 2016 Ohio St.** (#6 Mich, #7 Okla, #8 Wisc)
2- 2015 Mich St. (#5 Iowa, #7 Ohio St.)
2- 2014 Oregon (#8 Mich St., #10 Arizona)
2- 2017 Clemson (#7 Auburn, #10 Miami)
1- 2017 Oklahoma (#5 Ohio St.)
1- 2017 Georgia (#7 Georgia)
1- 2014 Alabama (#7 Miss St.)
1- 2014 Ohio St. (#8 Michigan St.)
1- 2016 Washington (#10 Colorado)
0- 2016 Clemson; 2015 Oklahoma; 2018 Oklahoma; 2015 Alabama; 2017 Alabama**
**2016 Ohio State and 2017 Alabama were the only ones on the list without a Conference Championship
WINS AGAINST TOP 15 OPPONENTS:
4- 2015 Michigan St. (#5 Iowa, #7 Ohio St., #14 Mich, #15 Ore)
3- 2017 Oklahoma (#5 Ohio St., #15 TCU, #15 TCU)
3- 2014 Oregon (#8 Mich St., #10 Ariz., #14 UCLA)
3- 2016 Ohio St.** (#6 Mich, #7 Okla, #8 Wisc)
3- 2016 Clemson (#11 FSU; #13 Lou, #14 Auburn)
2- 2017 Clemson (#7 Auburn; #10 Miami)
2- 2017 Georgia (#7 Auburn, #14 Notre Dame)
1- 2014 Alabama (#7 Miss. St.)
1- 2015 Oklahoma (#11 TCU)
1- 2018 Oklahoma (#15 Texas)
0- 2015 Alabama; 2017 Alabama**
**2016 Ohio State and 2017 Alabama were the only ones on the list without a Conference Championship
WINS AGAINST TOP 25 OPPONENTS:
4- 2015 Michigan St. (#5 Iowa, #7 Ohio St., #14 Mich, #15 Ore)
4- 2017 Oklahoma (#5 Ohio St., #15 TCU, #15 TCU, #19 OK St.)
4- 2014 Oregon (#8 Mich St., #10 Ariz., #14 UCLA, #22 Utah)
4- 2016 Clemson (#11 FSU; #13 Lou, #14 Auburn, #22 VT)
4- 2014 Alabama (#7 Miss St., #16 MIZ, #19 Auburn, #23 LSU)
4- 2015 Oklahoma (#11 TCU, #16 OK St., #17 Bay, #23 Tenn)
3- 2016 Ohio St.** (#6 Mich, #7 Okla, #8 Wisc)
3- 2017 Georgia (#7 Auburn, #14 Notre Dame, #23 Miss St.)
3- 2016 Washington (#10 Col, #18 Stan, #19 Utah)
3- 2014 Ohio St. (#8 Mich St., #18 Wis, #25 Minn)
3- 2018 Oklahoma (#15 Tex, #16 WVU, #24 ISU0
3- 2015 Alabama (#19 UF, #20 LSU, #23 Tenn)
2- 2017 Alabama (#17 LSU, #23 Miss St.)
So here are the rules of the Playoff Committee:
1. You must win your Conference unless you are Alabama or Ohio State
2. You must beat a Top 15 team unless you are Alabama
3. You must beat at least three Top 25 teams unless you are Alabama
Here we come to the end of the year, and Alabama is looking at being 11-1 without a Conference Championship. If they win out, they'll have zero wins against Top 15 opponents yet again. Unlike 2017, they'll likely have 1 Top 25 win vs. 2 that year.
Anyone who thinks they'll get left out again at 11-1 is fooling themselves.
Here are those teams ranked by the number of Quality Wins...
WINS VS. FINAL TOP 10 OPPONENTS:
3- 2016 Ohio St.** (#6 Mich, #7 Okla, #8 Wisc)
2- 2015 Mich St. (#5 Iowa, #7 Ohio St.)
2- 2014 Oregon (#8 Mich St., #10 Arizona)
2- 2017 Clemson (#7 Auburn, #10 Miami)
1- 2017 Oklahoma (#5 Ohio St.)
1- 2017 Georgia (#7 Georgia)
1- 2014 Alabama (#7 Miss St.)
1- 2014 Ohio St. (#8 Michigan St.)
1- 2016 Washington (#10 Colorado)
0- 2016 Clemson; 2015 Oklahoma; 2018 Oklahoma; 2015 Alabama; 2017 Alabama**
**2016 Ohio State and 2017 Alabama were the only ones on the list without a Conference Championship
WINS AGAINST TOP 15 OPPONENTS:
4- 2015 Michigan St. (#5 Iowa, #7 Ohio St., #14 Mich, #15 Ore)
3- 2017 Oklahoma (#5 Ohio St., #15 TCU, #15 TCU)
3- 2014 Oregon (#8 Mich St., #10 Ariz., #14 UCLA)
3- 2016 Ohio St.** (#6 Mich, #7 Okla, #8 Wisc)
3- 2016 Clemson (#11 FSU; #13 Lou, #14 Auburn)
2- 2017 Clemson (#7 Auburn; #10 Miami)
2- 2017 Georgia (#7 Auburn, #14 Notre Dame)
1- 2014 Alabama (#7 Miss. St.)
1- 2015 Oklahoma (#11 TCU)
1- 2018 Oklahoma (#15 Texas)
0- 2015 Alabama; 2017 Alabama**
**2016 Ohio State and 2017 Alabama were the only ones on the list without a Conference Championship
WINS AGAINST TOP 25 OPPONENTS:
4- 2015 Michigan St. (#5 Iowa, #7 Ohio St., #14 Mich, #15 Ore)
4- 2017 Oklahoma (#5 Ohio St., #15 TCU, #15 TCU, #19 OK St.)
4- 2014 Oregon (#8 Mich St., #10 Ariz., #14 UCLA, #22 Utah)
4- 2016 Clemson (#11 FSU; #13 Lou, #14 Auburn, #22 VT)
4- 2014 Alabama (#7 Miss St., #16 MIZ, #19 Auburn, #23 LSU)
4- 2015 Oklahoma (#11 TCU, #16 OK St., #17 Bay, #23 Tenn)
3- 2016 Ohio St.** (#6 Mich, #7 Okla, #8 Wisc)
3- 2017 Georgia (#7 Auburn, #14 Notre Dame, #23 Miss St.)
3- 2016 Washington (#10 Col, #18 Stan, #19 Utah)
3- 2014 Ohio St. (#8 Mich St., #18 Wis, #25 Minn)
3- 2018 Oklahoma (#15 Tex, #16 WVU, #24 ISU0
3- 2015 Alabama (#19 UF, #20 LSU, #23 Tenn)
2- 2017 Alabama (#17 LSU, #23 Miss St.)
So here are the rules of the Playoff Committee:
1. You must win your Conference unless you are Alabama or Ohio State
2. You must beat a Top 15 team unless you are Alabama
3. You must beat at least three Top 25 teams unless you are Alabama
Here we come to the end of the year, and Alabama is looking at being 11-1 without a Conference Championship. If they win out, they'll have zero wins against Top 15 opponents yet again. Unlike 2017, they'll likely have 1 Top 25 win vs. 2 that year.
Anyone who thinks they'll get left out again at 11-1 is fooling themselves.
This post was edited on 11/21/19 at 10:59 am
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Posted on 11/21/19 at 11:00 am to BHMKyle
Now do how many times we won the championship despite your views of our undeserving spot in the CFP. And if you're feeling extra spiffy, explain the implications that has occurred due to this egregious phenomenon.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 11:01 am to BHMKyle
In before tin foil hat shite from the Gumps.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 11:02 am to rtr1985
quote:
And if you're feeling extra spiffy, explain the implications that has occurred due to this egregious phenomenon.
Proof for 95% of college football fans that the game is rigged. Other than that, no major implications.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 11:03 am to BHMKyle
quote:
So here are the rules of the Playoff Committee:
1. You must win your Conference unless you are Alabama or Ohio State
got damn why do people continue this retarded take? OSU went in in 16 becuase the team they were competing with had 2 losses. Ditto for '17 alabama.
quote:
2. You must beat a Top 15 team unless you are Alabama
ohio state in '17 had 2 losses including the most pitiful loss of the year. Bama went by default
quote:
You must beat at least three Top 25 teams unless you are Alabama
Where is the "don't lose 2 games" clause?
I did something similar weeks ago here: LINK (on 3 different boards actually) but apparnetly people still can't get it through their thick skulls how the committee actually operates. I can't fricking wait until after CCG weekend so the stupidity will end.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 11:06 am to BHMKyle
Too bad your 95% of football fans didn't agree with you.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 11:08 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Anyone who thinks they'll get left out again at 11-1 is fooling themselves.
These discussions are silly when you leave out who the other competition was for the final spot. This year, if things hold, it will be two different 12-1 conference champions. In 2017 it was a 2-loss conference champion with a 30 point loss to a 5 loss team.
It's not the same.
WG Dawg has presented the case as perfectly as can be presented about 100 times.
This post was edited on 11/21/19 at 11:10 am
Posted on 11/21/19 at 11:11 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Anyone who thinks they'll get left out again at 11-1 is fooling themselves.
No, the ones fooling themselves are the dullards that keep spouting a "bama bias" and not acutally lookign at the common sense reality of why they went. I'll bet you any frickign thing you want; money, ban-bet, seppuku bet, you name the stakes, that bama is not making the playoffs this year UNLESS multiple P5 champs have multiple losses. Since that's literally the only time a non-champ has ever made the playoff.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 11:11 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
This year, if things hold, it will be two different 12-1 conference champions. In 2017 it was a 2-loss conference champion
Yes, and all the talking heads are already starting to pave the way that Alabama's "eye test" is better than Oregon or Oklahoma. No one is saying that the only way Bama gets in is if all other conference champs have 2 losses. No one.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 11:12 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
WG Dawg has presented the case as perfectly as can be presented about 100 times.
at this point when I come into work for the day I just assume that I'm going to post that link again at least 3 or 4 times throughout the day. It's maddening that this "don't pay attention to facts" disease has become so widespread. Even more concernign is that kyle is typically one of the better posters here and always brings facts, but he's ate up with it too at the moment.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 11:13 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
No, the ones fooling themselves are the dullards that keep spouting a "bama bias" and not acutally lookign at the common sense reality of why they went.
If you honestly believe that ANY other team would have gotten into the playoff without winning their conference and without beating a single Top 15 opponent, then more power to you. But anyone with an ounce of reason will admit that there is no way any team with that resume not named "Alabama" would have gotten in. No chance.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 11:14 am to BHMKyle
A bullshite "analysis" because every single year is different.
The only thing that matters each season is comparing #4 vs #5 (and also possible #6).
Those resumes are going to vary each year. Sometimes #4 will look great, other timed they'll have some warts. It depends on what happened that year.
There's always an argument to be had but the #4 team each year was generally agreed upon by a consensus. The two years there were the most argument the #4 seed won the whole thing.
The only thing that matters each season is comparing #4 vs #5 (and also possible #6).
Those resumes are going to vary each year. Sometimes #4 will look great, other timed they'll have some warts. It depends on what happened that year.
There's always an argument to be had but the #4 team each year was generally agreed upon by a consensus. The two years there were the most argument the #4 seed won the whole thing.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 11:14 am to BHMKyle
quote:
all the talking heads are already starting to pave the way t
that's your first problem, you need to realize that kirk fricking herbstreit isn't on the committee and doens't mean jack shite to who the committee picks. You need ot understand these people are paid to generate discussion and ratings and get people talking. What they say means NOTHING. WGAF what kirk thinks
quote:
No one is saying that the only way Bama gets in is if all other conference champs have 2 losses. No one.
because it's better for sports media to have the sheep in the general public think there are as many teams as possible wiht a chance to slip in. If they came out and said "look people, bama is done and has zero chance unless we have mass chaos" it's not as beneficial to them.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 11:15 am to BHMKyle
quote:
1- 2017 Georgia (#7 Georgia)
One heckuva quality win in the G Day game.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 11:16 am to BHMKyle
quote:
anyone with an ounce of reason will admit that there is no way any team with that resume not named "Alabama" would have gotten in. No chance.
the resume of the team they were competing against had 1 more loss and a 30-point beatdown to a putrid iowa team, while bama's lone loss was to the #2 team in the coutnry. OSU's resume wasn't as incredible as you're wanting to believe.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 11:16 am to BHMKyle
quote:
No one is saying that the only way Bama gets in is if all other conference champs have 2 losses. No one.
Literally every single major college football pundit is saying this.
A 1 loss PAC12 champ is going to jump Alabama. They are all saying that because that's almost certainly what will happen.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 11:17 am to SummerOfGeorge
Also, just for comparative purposes
Strength of Record - After Regular Season
2014 Ohio State - #6
2015 Alabama - #2
2016 Ohio State - #2
2017 Alabama - #4
The only team out of those that had a Resume Ranking outside the Top 4 was 2014 Ohio State.
Fast forward to current
2019 Alabama - #6
2019 Oregon - #8
2019 Baylor - #9
2019 Utah - #10
2019 Oklahoma - #12
Alabama only has Auburn left. If things hold chalk the 1 loss teams out of Oregon/Utah and OU/Baylor will probably have #4/#5 SOR and Alabama will still be around #6.
We won't get in unless Oklahoma has 2 losses/Baylor wins the BXII or the Pac XII team has 2 losses.
Strength of Record - After Regular Season
2014 Ohio State - #6
2015 Alabama - #2
2016 Ohio State - #2
2017 Alabama - #4
The only team out of those that had a Resume Ranking outside the Top 4 was 2014 Ohio State.
Fast forward to current
2019 Alabama - #6
2019 Oregon - #8
2019 Baylor - #9
2019 Utah - #10
2019 Oklahoma - #12
Alabama only has Auburn left. If things hold chalk the 1 loss teams out of Oregon/Utah and OU/Baylor will probably have #4/#5 SOR and Alabama will still be around #6.
We won't get in unless Oklahoma has 2 losses/Baylor wins the BXII or the Pac XII team has 2 losses.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 11:17 am to PEPE
quote:
A 1 loss PAC12 champ is going to jump Alabama
100% without even the smallest shadow of a doubt.
Posted on 11/21/19 at 11:20 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Yes, and all the talking heads are already starting to pave the way that Alabama's "eye test" is better than Oregon or Oklahoma. No one is saying that the only way Bama gets in is if all other conference champs have 2 losses. No one.
For one, that's absolutely an exaggeration. Lots of media pundits and writers are very openly saying Alabama has little to no shot. Mandel, Staples, Feldman, Wolken even Herbstreit recently.
For two, it doesn't matter what they say. The playoffs have picked the 4 teams with the best SOR every year except 1. Alabama in all likelihood will not be in that group unless crazy things happen and they are once again a 1-loss team competing with 2-loss conference champions.
The only thing that has been silly is people acting like past years Alabama received some sort of biased entry into the playoff. They didn't. 2015 and 2017 were Top 4 teams based on every metric, both resume ranking metrics and strength of team metric.
This post was edited on 11/21/19 at 11:21 am
Posted on 11/21/19 at 11:23 am to SummerOfGeorge
we have a pretty clear history of apples to apples comparisons on how the ocmmittee operates. What's interesting to me is what htey'll do in a scenario we haven't bene presented with yet, namely if LSU loses the SECCG. There is precedent for htis in 2015 when undefeated iowa (top 4 of playoffs) lost to 1-loss MSU in the CCG then MSU went to playoffs and iowa finished 5th, BUT iowa's resume that year isn't close to what LSU's is this season.
Assuming OSU, Clemson, and UGA would be locks in this case, that'd leave you with:
1-loss LSU that lost their ccg
1-loss Pac 12 champ
1-loss Big 12 champ
It'd be really interesting to me what they would do and I honestly have no idea
Assuming OSU, Clemson, and UGA would be locks in this case, that'd leave you with:
1-loss LSU that lost their ccg
1-loss Pac 12 champ
1-loss Big 12 champ
It'd be really interesting to me what they would do and I honestly have no idea
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