re: Playoff Team Rating Profiles (FEI)

getting all up in my feelings bc i can’t read. op holding your hand like a little baby and you’re still just too dumb for any of it to take. gotta assume you’re probably used to this.

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Yeah, this FEI ranking seems pretty useless. It produces wacky results, such as:

Oregon 3
Utah 5
Notre Dame 6




Their ratings aren't wins and losses, it's like SP+ - how good a team is based on analysis of their stats curved by who they played.

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Problem with that is some teams play to win and some teams play for stats. If you have a win secured do you run up the score or do you pull your starters and just run the ball to kill the clock? Why reward the former? It doesn't make them a better team.

Football is about winning games and not stats. Stats have a place but they are far less important and really hard to compare across all of those variables.

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Problem with that is some teams play to win and some teams play for stats. If you have a win secured do you run up the score or do you pull your starters and just run the ball to kill the clock? Why reward the former? It doesn't make them a better team.

Football is about winning games and not stats. Stats have a place but they are far less important and really hard to compare across all of those variables.

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That's why stats in garbage time are not included, to eliminate the run up the score vs take the air out of the ball differential.

And yes, these sorts of ratings have their place and are not for use everywhere. You shouldn't be selecting teams for a playoff based on their FEI or SP+ rank (winning games is what matters), but how you evaluate their wins and losses should absolutely be based on the quality of the teams they beat (their FEI/SP+ rank).

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BYU has one less loss than Utah and already beat Utah, but FEI ranks them 10 spots lower

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BYU beat Colorado by 3

BYU beat WVU by 14

BYU went to OT with Arizona

BYU lost to Texas Tech by 22


Utah beat Colorado by 46

Utah beat WVU by 34

Utah beat Az St by 32

Utah lost to Texas Tech by 24


BYU beat Utah by 3 at home


So in terms of how have they played all season long, yes, Utah is above BYU.


In terms of their strength of record

BYU : #6, 8, 7
Utah : #19, 18, 16

BYU is CLEARLY ahead of Utah.


But yea, if your team played BYU or Utah tomorrow, the spread in Vegas (and expectation) would be that Utah would give you a better game. Based on their performances the entire season.

I could see Utah having a slightly tougher point spread vs a random team compared to BYU.

Not much difference.

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A&M's resume is pretty clearly the #1 resume in the country

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That is not what FEI is saying. FEI is saying that A&M has been elite compared to what an average team would do against its schedule - basically it is saying A&M has played a schedule with meat to it, every team they play would give a 6-6 team some struggle

For playoff teams, you want to be looking at EWD: which is SOR for how an elite team would perform against their schedule, A&M is #2 in that regard

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For playoff teams, you want to be looking at EWD: which is SOR for how an elite team would perform against their schedule, A&M is #2 in that regard

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They are tied with Indiana at 1.40 (assume that Indiana leads by a thousandth pt somewhere down the non-rounded line - but basically a pure tie). So if you then step down to the Good SOR, A&M is #1 and Indiana is #3.

So I'd have A&M #1, Indiana #2 and Ohio St #3.

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It will be interesting to see how SOS and SOR change after the SEC 'FCS challenge' week taking place this week.

I know, I know, we play a shite schedule and it doesn't matter. I have to agree.

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(a) Likely won't change much - for one FCS teams usually aren't included and for two a "bad" team doesn't really penalize you, it just gives you nothing added.

(b) Ohio State has played a bad schedule but they've done exactly what you are supposed to do with it. They're clearly an elite team, it's just hard to tell exactly how elite since they haven't played anyone else near their caliber. But they will to some slight extent in 2 weeks, definitely will in Indy and then again in the playoff. So it's a bit of a moot point except for whether they are #1, 2 or 3.

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You can understand analytics and still believe that they're useless.

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I don’t think anyone who understands them finds them useless. They clearly have use. The extent of the use is another story.