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re: Opinions will another 5 loss season get Gus fired.
Posted on 6/14/19 at 10:22 am to BamaNatureBoy
Posted on 6/14/19 at 10:22 am to BamaNatureBoy
Depends on who the 5 losses are to.
If the losses come to Oregon, Florida, LSU (all away from home) in addition to Georgia and Alabama..... and all of those teams have the type season they are projected to have, I have a hard time seeing Auburn fire their coach. If preseason projections are correct, this is how Auburn's season would look under that scenario:
#2 Alabama- Loss at home
#3 Georgia- Loss at home
#6 LSU- Loss in Baton Rouge
#8 Florida- Loss in Gainesville
#10 Oregon- Loss in Dallas
#11 Texas A&M- Win in College Station
#21 Mississippi St.- Win at home
I mean yes, no major program is going to be happy with 5 losses, but if all 5 are against Top 10 teams and you still had 2 wins against Top 25 teams, do you really want to fire a coach and start all over?
Things should start getting easier for Auburn on the schedule front in the near future. If you look at OOC opponents along with their East opponents, here is how its looked during the Gus era using FINAL AP Rankings except for 2019 in which I'm using CURRENT PROJECTED PRESEASON RANKINGS:
2013: NR Washington State, at NR Tennessee, NR Georgia
2014: at #18 Kansas State, NR South Carolina, at #9 Georgia
2015: NR Louisville, at NR Kentucky, NR Georgia
2016: #1 Clemson, NR Vanderbilt, at NR Georgia
2017: at #4 Clemson, NR Missouri, at #2 Georgia
2018: #13 Washington, NR Tennessee, #7 Georgia
2019: #10 Oregon, at #8 Florida, #3 Georgia
Has Gus' Auburn program really fallen off the past few years because of a lack of talent/coaching or is it just that the schedule has been so brutal that no team would be able to handle it?
Obviously there have been some questionable coaching decisions, etc.... but I don't think Gus is the main problem.
Auburn's softening the past few years is in direct correlation with Georgia improving under Kirby along with their unbelievably difficult OOC schedule.
We all know the SEC West is the most difficult division in college football most years. There is no debating that. In fact its nearly impossible for any team to get through just the SEC West unscathed..... note most SEC West Champs have a a division loss. 2011 Alabama lost to LSU. 2013 Auburn lost to LSU. 2014 Alabama lost to Ole Miss. 2015 Alabama lost to Ole Miss. 2017 Auburn lost to LSU. Etc.
But Auburn is the only SEC West team who has to play East Leader Georgia every year. Then throw in difficult OOC games like #1 Clemson (2016), #4 Clemson (2017), #13 Washington (2018), and now projected #10 Oregon (2019).... how can anyone get through that gauntlet?
Meanwhile you've got Alabama playing Tennessee every year and playing these OOC foes:
2017: 6-Loss Florida State
2018: 10-Loss Louisville
2019: Duke
This has been a rough patch for Auburn but I think the schedule is mostly responsible for that. All things considered, Auburn has done fairly decent the last 5 years.
Starting next year, things get a bit easier:
2020: North Carolina, Kentucky
2021: at Penn State, at South Carolina
2022: Penn State, Missouri
2023: at California; at Vanderbilt
... OOC series with Baylor and UCLA to follow Cal. Penn State could be decent, and Mizzou and South Carolina are always capable of having a good year, but it gets more manageable IMO. You don't see a Clemson or a Florida on those schedules at least.
I think Auburn should hang on to Gus and give him a few more years. I think things are due to improve beginning next year if Auburn can weather this scheduling perfect storm.
If the losses come to Oregon, Florida, LSU (all away from home) in addition to Georgia and Alabama..... and all of those teams have the type season they are projected to have, I have a hard time seeing Auburn fire their coach. If preseason projections are correct, this is how Auburn's season would look under that scenario:
#2 Alabama- Loss at home
#3 Georgia- Loss at home
#6 LSU- Loss in Baton Rouge
#8 Florida- Loss in Gainesville
#10 Oregon- Loss in Dallas
#11 Texas A&M- Win in College Station
#21 Mississippi St.- Win at home
I mean yes, no major program is going to be happy with 5 losses, but if all 5 are against Top 10 teams and you still had 2 wins against Top 25 teams, do you really want to fire a coach and start all over?
Things should start getting easier for Auburn on the schedule front in the near future. If you look at OOC opponents along with their East opponents, here is how its looked during the Gus era using FINAL AP Rankings except for 2019 in which I'm using CURRENT PROJECTED PRESEASON RANKINGS:
2013: NR Washington State, at NR Tennessee, NR Georgia
2014: at #18 Kansas State, NR South Carolina, at #9 Georgia
2015: NR Louisville, at NR Kentucky, NR Georgia
2016: #1 Clemson, NR Vanderbilt, at NR Georgia
2017: at #4 Clemson, NR Missouri, at #2 Georgia
2018: #13 Washington, NR Tennessee, #7 Georgia
2019: #10 Oregon, at #8 Florida, #3 Georgia
Has Gus' Auburn program really fallen off the past few years because of a lack of talent/coaching or is it just that the schedule has been so brutal that no team would be able to handle it?
Obviously there have been some questionable coaching decisions, etc.... but I don't think Gus is the main problem.
Auburn's softening the past few years is in direct correlation with Georgia improving under Kirby along with their unbelievably difficult OOC schedule.
We all know the SEC West is the most difficult division in college football most years. There is no debating that. In fact its nearly impossible for any team to get through just the SEC West unscathed..... note most SEC West Champs have a a division loss. 2011 Alabama lost to LSU. 2013 Auburn lost to LSU. 2014 Alabama lost to Ole Miss. 2015 Alabama lost to Ole Miss. 2017 Auburn lost to LSU. Etc.
But Auburn is the only SEC West team who has to play East Leader Georgia every year. Then throw in difficult OOC games like #1 Clemson (2016), #4 Clemson (2017), #13 Washington (2018), and now projected #10 Oregon (2019).... how can anyone get through that gauntlet?
Meanwhile you've got Alabama playing Tennessee every year and playing these OOC foes:
2017: 6-Loss Florida State
2018: 10-Loss Louisville
2019: Duke
This has been a rough patch for Auburn but I think the schedule is mostly responsible for that. All things considered, Auburn has done fairly decent the last 5 years.
Starting next year, things get a bit easier:
2020: North Carolina, Kentucky
2021: at Penn State, at South Carolina
2022: Penn State, Missouri
2023: at California; at Vanderbilt
... OOC series with Baylor and UCLA to follow Cal. Penn State could be decent, and Mizzou and South Carolina are always capable of having a good year, but it gets more manageable IMO. You don't see a Clemson or a Florida on those schedules at least.
I think Auburn should hang on to Gus and give him a few more years. I think things are due to improve beginning next year if Auburn can weather this scheduling perfect storm.
This post was edited on 6/14/19 at 10:25 am
2
Posted on 6/14/19 at 10:26 am to BHMKyle
quote:
LSU (all away from home) in addition to Georgia and Alabama.
I think losing those 3 gets him fired, regardless of what else happens. It should, at least. Yes, they are good teams, but there are always going to be good teams on our schedule. If he can't take care of at least a couple of those, then he's not the right guy for the job.
Posted on 6/14/19 at 10:27 am to Pettifogger
quote:
8-5 with a win over UGA/Bama probably saves him. Another 8-5 year where we get rolled by our rivals and I doubt he survives.
I don’t know man. So tired of UGA/Bama being his life preserver. Even he was to win one at Amen Corner, that still means he lost to some form of LSU, MSU, OM, UF, ATM etc as well.
Posted on 6/14/19 at 10:32 am to Leto II
quote:
I think losing those 3 gets him fired, regardless of what else happens.
Well if Auburn fires a coach for losing to the #2, #3, and #6 teams, then they deserve to have to pay him a bunch of money and start all over from scratch in the process.
Posted on 6/14/19 at 10:55 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Well if Auburn fires a coach for losing to the #2, #3, and #6 teams, then they deserve to have to pay him a bunch of money and start all over from scratch in the process.
Those are the teams on our schedule and that's not changing anytime soon that I can see. If the Auburn brass wants to see Auburn win another SEC title in the near future, they need a coach who can beat those 3 teams more than 1/3 of the time. That's the reality. Throw in losing to the Miss States of the world and it's probably time for a change.
Besides, Auburn's done better than most teams when we've replaced a coach.
Auburn has the resources and spends the money (take that as you will) to be a top-10-15 team, and beating top-10 teams should be be in our wheelhouse.
This post was edited on 6/14/19 at 10:57 am
Posted on 6/14/19 at 11:20 am to bigDgator
quote:
What if Auburn loses to Oregon, Florida and Georgia in the regular season, and then loses to Georgia or Fla (or whoever wins the East) again in the SEC champ game and then loses the bowl game?
That would mean Alabama would have to have two SEC losses. Who would the second loss be to, State?
It just seems extremely unlikely.
It does seem that should Auburn have wins against Bama and UGA, with possible regular season losses to LSU, Florida, A&M and Oregon, and a loss in a bowl game, bringing their final record to 8-5, they would be hard-pressed to let Gus go - especially considering the buyout.
Posted on 6/14/19 at 11:25 am to BamaNatureBoy
Probably. Only caveat is if we end up 8-5, it will depend on which are the 8 and which are the 5. If we lose to say A&M, MSU, Oregon, LSU, and UF but beat UGA and Bama my guess that he would stay.
Posted on 6/14/19 at 11:26 am to Leto II
quote:
Those are the teams on our schedule and that's not changing anytime soon that I can see.
No its not likely going to. But IMO Auburn should be campaigning harder and louder about changing up the schedules to make things more fair.
According to S&P+, here are how many times since 2012 each SEC team has played a Top 3 ranked SOS nationally:
7- Auburn (2012, 2013, 2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018)
2- Alabama (2015, 2016)
2- Arkansas (2014, 2017)
2- Tennessee (2013, 2018)
1- Florida (2014)
1- LSU (2018)
1- Ole Miss (2012)
1- Missouri (2012)
0- Georgia
0- Kentucky
0- Mississippi State
0- South Carolina
0- Texas A&M
0- Vanderbilt
That's a problem. Keep in mind Bama's SOS gets a huge boost most years by playing in the SEC CG as well as the Playoff, so if there was a way to just look at Regular Season SOS the numbers would likely even look more out of line across the board.
Auburn has a legit gripe with the league about scheduling imbalance. No one can deny the obvious facts displayed above that inherent scheduling puts Auburn at a significant disadvantage. Auburn is guaranteed a Top 3 toughest schedule in the nation every year and there is nothing they can do about it. No one else has that uphill battle to climb. And sadly for Gus and Auburn, 2019 looks like the toughest one yet.
If I were Auburn, I'd do the following:
1. Petition hard and loud about changing up the schedules to make things more fair... particularly I'd ask to move to the East so that you could get rid of having to play LSU every year.
2. Stop scheduling tough programs like Clemson and start scheduling known losers OOC. Auburn already plays a tough enough SOS, there is no reason to kill yourself by playing a ranked OOC opponent every season like Clemson, Washington, Oregon, etc.
Auburn should lock in home-and-home series with Duke, Wake Forest, Indiana, Purdue, Kansas, Virginia, Colorado, etc.
All of these programs are capable of having a decent year from time to time but we're talking one Top 10 finish every 20 years or so. Chances are it would ease up the schedule a bit.
You can fire your coach if you want, but whoever comes in is going to have to face the same gauntlet. Until Auburn gets that issue resolved, every coach will have to face the same thing.
This post was edited on 6/14/19 at 11:28 am
Posted on 6/14/19 at 11:49 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Auburn has a legit gripe with the league about scheduling imbalance. No one can deny the obvious facts displayed above that inherent scheduling puts Auburn at a significant disadvantage.
Auburn wants to maintain their historic rivalries with: Alabama, Georgia, Florida and Tennessee, so they really shouldn't open their pie-holes about tough schedules.
Why is it that when LSU fans were making the same statements before 2012, when Florida was frequently in the top 5, the rest of the conference laughed?
Therefore, in order to maintain consistency...
...
Posted on 6/14/19 at 12:04 pm to BamaNatureBoy
He will be an analyst at Bama.
Posted on 6/14/19 at 12:06 pm to BamaNatureBoy
If Auburn fans expect to go 12-0, they will no doubt go 8-5.
If Auburn fans expect to go 8-5, they will no doubt win minimum 11 games.
That's just the way it is.
If Auburn fans expect to go 8-5, they will no doubt win minimum 11 games.
That's just the way it is.
Posted on 6/14/19 at 12:52 pm to 3down10
quote:
If Auburn fans expect to go 12-0, they will no doubt go 8-5.
If Auburn fans expect to go 8-5, they will no doubt win minimum 11 games.
That's just the way it is.
I expect 5-7, so National Championship?
Posted on 6/14/19 at 12:56 pm to yatesdog38
quote:
He will get fired on September 29th after a 24 point loss at home to the Mississippi State Bulldogs.
Dream on little doggy. Your "best team ever" just left school and your coach is a fresh pile of runny dog poop.
Posted on 6/14/19 at 1:17 pm to Nitro Express
If the Nix kid doesn't play great in year one then the Barn will actually have a losing season.
Posted on 6/14/19 at 1:18 pm to MykTide
quote:
They need to leave that poor guy alone and let him do his job. 5 losses would just motivate him. He would deserve a raise if that's the case.
Posted on 6/14/19 at 1:19 pm to JoseyWalesTheOutlaw
Gatewood will be the starter.
This post was edited on 6/14/19 at 1:20 pm
Posted on 6/14/19 at 1:20 pm to JoseyWalesTheOutlaw
quote:
If the Nix kid doesn't play great in year one then the Barn will actually have a losing season.
He may not have to if Gatewood starts and plays well. If Gus has a hand in coaching either one they are screwed.
Posted on 6/14/19 at 1:23 pm to Leto II
No, Gatewood is the perfect Gus System QB. The key will be if he can stay healthy.
Posted on 6/14/19 at 1:30 pm to JoseyWalesTheOutlaw
quote:
If the Nix kid doesn't play great in year one then the Barn will actually have a losing season.
Murmurs from practice say the running QB behemoth Joey Gatewood will start. That’s about the only hope I have for Gus getting his groove back - a running QB. If not, bye bye.
Posted on 6/14/19 at 1:55 pm to Rhino5
quote:
I don’t know man. So tired of UGA/Bama being his life preserver. Even he was to win one at Amen Corner, that still means he lost to some form of LSU, MSU, OM, UF, ATM etc as well.
I agree. But the reality is we're not beating UGA or Bama enough to really say they're a life preserver. The two times it happened were legitimately pretty good years, it's just that one ended with a thud.
I've been saying this every year for like 5 years, but I really just want to feel like we're building something. More often than not it feels like Gus is starting anew each season in some major way. Obviously people graduate and that's not his fault, but not having QBs on the roster with experience IS his fault. Not having consistency on offense because you're not picking the right guys for what we need to do is certainly his fault.
So if for example we struggled early and put it together throughout the year and were rolling as we finished, especially with a young QB, I'd be a lot more tolerant of keeping Gus and seeing if he can carry on the momentum. The problem is we usually drop a game early, hit a brief peak by destroying Arkansas or similar, then collapse.
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