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My Final Bracket Projection
Posted on 5/24/26 at 2:21 pm
Posted on 5/24/26 at 2:21 pm
1. Georgia Tech hosts 32. UCF
2. UCLA hosts 31. Arizona State
3. Georgia hosts 30. Liberty
4. N. Carolina hosts 29. Coastal Carolina
5. Auburn hosts 28. Miami
6. Texas hosts 27. Oklahoma St.
7. Alabama hosts 26. Jacksonville St.
8. Florida hosts 25. Virginia
9. Southern Miss hosts 24. Tennessee
10. Florida St hosts 23. Oklahoma
11. Texas A&M hosts 22. Cincinnati
12. Nebraska hosts 21. Wake Forest
13. W. Virginia hosts 20. Ole Miss
14. Arkansas hosts 19. USC
15. Oregon St. hosts 17. Miss St.
16. Oregon hosts 18. Kansas
Some notes:
*I think Georgia Tech has done enough to capture the overall #1 seed even if UCLA beats Oregon. The Yellow Jackets have an insane resume at this point… highest DSR and KPI… most Quad 1 wins, etc.
*Mississippi State is the biggest casualty of the final week… I had them #11 going into the final week and although they didn’t do anything worthy of dropping out of a host spot, Arkansas went on an absolute tear beating Tennessee, Texas, and Auburn in a 4-day period. With 18 Quad 1 wins I don’t see the Hogs not hosting. Unfortunately I just don’t see the committee letting 8 SEC teams host.
*I think Kentucky makes it and isn’t one of the last 4 in. I think they get assigned to the Lincoln, Nebraska Regional.
*The 7, 8, 9, 10, and 11 slots are the hardest to project. I think Alabama is at the top of the group but it also wouldn’t shock me to see the committee prop up Southern Miss and give them a National Seed. Texas A&M could also very easily be ranked ahead of Florida. It will be wild to see what the committee does.
*The 4, 5, 6 slots are also tough. UNC really lacks quality wins so I wouldn’t be shocked to see them fall to #6. Auburn and Texas are a coin flip. While the Longhorns won the series in Auburn, Auburn is ahead in every metric, has 3+ Q1 wins and and a whopping 7+ Q1+2 wins so I went with Auburn.
2. UCLA hosts 31. Arizona State
3. Georgia hosts 30. Liberty
4. N. Carolina hosts 29. Coastal Carolina
5. Auburn hosts 28. Miami
6. Texas hosts 27. Oklahoma St.
7. Alabama hosts 26. Jacksonville St.
8. Florida hosts 25. Virginia
9. Southern Miss hosts 24. Tennessee
10. Florida St hosts 23. Oklahoma
11. Texas A&M hosts 22. Cincinnati
12. Nebraska hosts 21. Wake Forest
13. W. Virginia hosts 20. Ole Miss
14. Arkansas hosts 19. USC
15. Oregon St. hosts 17. Miss St.
16. Oregon hosts 18. Kansas
Some notes:
*I think Georgia Tech has done enough to capture the overall #1 seed even if UCLA beats Oregon. The Yellow Jackets have an insane resume at this point… highest DSR and KPI… most Quad 1 wins, etc.
*Mississippi State is the biggest casualty of the final week… I had them #11 going into the final week and although they didn’t do anything worthy of dropping out of a host spot, Arkansas went on an absolute tear beating Tennessee, Texas, and Auburn in a 4-day period. With 18 Quad 1 wins I don’t see the Hogs not hosting. Unfortunately I just don’t see the committee letting 8 SEC teams host.
*I think Kentucky makes it and isn’t one of the last 4 in. I think they get assigned to the Lincoln, Nebraska Regional.
*The 7, 8, 9, 10, and 11 slots are the hardest to project. I think Alabama is at the top of the group but it also wouldn’t shock me to see the committee prop up Southern Miss and give them a National Seed. Texas A&M could also very easily be ranked ahead of Florida. It will be wild to see what the committee does.
*The 4, 5, 6 slots are also tough. UNC really lacks quality wins so I wouldn’t be shocked to see them fall to #6. Auburn and Texas are a coin flip. While the Longhorns won the series in Auburn, Auburn is ahead in every metric, has 3+ Q1 wins and and a whopping 7+ Q1+2 wins so I went with Auburn.
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Posted on 5/24/26 at 8:49 pm to AUTiger789
Very good analysis. Not sure how accurate you'll be but you explained it well.
Posted on 5/24/26 at 9:40 pm to AUTiger789
Kentucky deserves to be left out
Posted on 5/24/26 at 10:44 pm to AUTiger789
Love the analysis! My top 8 would be 1) UCLA 2) Georgia Tech 3) Georgia 4) North Carolina 5) Texas 6) Auburn 7) Florida 8) Florida State
Posted on 5/25/26 at 1:47 am to crazie04
Been trying to work out why Bama and Auburn having roughly the same record, SOS/Quality wins etc. etc., that Auburn, having been swept by Bama still gets the higher nod.
We swept Florida also. We were 8-10 after Arkansas and finished 18-12, so we were on an SEC heater until we lost in the SEC Tourney, which tbh, I don't think most people really care about any more, they would rather rest their arms. Only the desperate teams even half try. UGA felt with their RPI in the teens, they needed to win to get a for sure top 8 seed. Arkansas was trying to wet a top 8 seed, everyone else was pretty much lock in except Vamdy, LSU was too bad to win the SEC Tourney this year.
We swept Florida also. We were 8-10 after Arkansas and finished 18-12, so we were on an SEC heater until we lost in the SEC Tourney, which tbh, I don't think most people really care about any more, they would rather rest their arms. Only the desperate teams even half try. UGA felt with their RPI in the teens, they needed to win to get a for sure top 8 seed. Arkansas was trying to wet a top 8 seed, everyone else was pretty much lock in except Vamdy, LSU was too bad to win the SEC Tourney this year.
Posted on 5/25/26 at 2:30 am to AUTiger789
The RPI is still very important. I don't agree with it as Arkansas losing some midweek games early isn't really telling you how they play right now. But it is what it is. Not being top 20 RPI has hurt them.
Posted on 5/25/26 at 2:33 am to TTOWN RONMON
quote:
UGA felt with their RPI in the teens, they needed to win to get a for sure top 8 seed.
Not true. The RPI was gonna rise. I suppose had we lost our first game, maybe. But no one was really worried we wouldn't be a top 8. Of course, we wanted to be a top 4 and winning the tournament assured us of that.
Posted on 5/25/26 at 8:49 am to TTOWN RONMON
quote:
Been trying to work out why Bama and Auburn having roughly the same record, SOS/Quality wins etc. etc.,
Auburn is ahead in every metric.
RPI: AU 3, Bama 6
DSR: AU 5, Bama 15
KPI: AU 3, Bama 6
Quad 1 Wins: AU 17, Bama 15
Quad 1+2 Wins: AU 26, Bama 19
SOS: AU 1, Bama 3
Record vs hosts: AU 14-12, Bama 7-4
Losses to non-hosts: AU 7, Bama 15
Auburn’s SOS is rated #1 toughest… but it’s so far and away more difficult than any of the others, just stating the SOS ranking doesn’t do it justice. Auburn played 15 (!) more games than Alabama did against host teams and Bama has a top 3 toughest schedule.
I think most people believe that the entire mountain of data above is enough to overcome a series sweep in Tuscaloosa. That’s the only data point bama has to justify a higher seed. It very well may be enough. Wouldn’t shock me to see bama higher.
Posted on 5/25/26 at 8:50 am to TTOWN RONMON
quote:
UGA felt with their RPI in the teens, they needed to win to get a for sure top 8 seed. Arkansas was trying to wet a top 8 seed,
Georgia was already locked in to a top 8 seed. This is some serious Bammer delusion
Posted on 5/25/26 at 8:56 am to AUTiger789
Here’s my redo based on the announced host sites. I had Arkansas and Oregon St hosting instead of MSU and Kansas. Those have been subbed in now and the 14-19 teams adjusted:
1. Georgia Tech hosts 32. UCF
2. UCLA hosts 31. Arizona State
3. Georgia hosts 30. Liberty
4. N. Carolina hosts 29. Coastal Carolina
5. Auburn hosts 28. Miami
6. Texas hosts 27. Oklahoma St.
7. Alabama hosts 26. Jacksonville St.
8. Florida hosts 25. Virginia
9. Southern Miss hosts 24. Tennessee
10. Florida St hosts 23. Oklahoma
11. Texas A&M hosts 22. Cincinnati
12. Nebraska hosts 21. Wake Forest
13. W. Virginia hosts 20. Ole Miss
14. Oregon hosts 18. Oregon St.
15. Miss St. hosts 19. USC
16. Kansas hosts 17. Arkansas
I still think Kentucky is in and headed to Nebraska’s regional.
1. Georgia Tech hosts 32. UCF
2. UCLA hosts 31. Arizona State
3. Georgia hosts 30. Liberty
4. N. Carolina hosts 29. Coastal Carolina
5. Auburn hosts 28. Miami
6. Texas hosts 27. Oklahoma St.
7. Alabama hosts 26. Jacksonville St.
8. Florida hosts 25. Virginia
9. Southern Miss hosts 24. Tennessee
10. Florida St hosts 23. Oklahoma
11. Texas A&M hosts 22. Cincinnati
12. Nebraska hosts 21. Wake Forest
13. W. Virginia hosts 20. Ole Miss
14. Oregon hosts 18. Oregon St.
15. Miss St. hosts 19. USC
16. Kansas hosts 17. Arkansas
I still think Kentucky is in and headed to Nebraska’s regional.
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