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re: Line is now 10 1/2 pts.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 9:58 am to TailbackU
Posted on 1/6/14 at 9:58 am to TailbackU
I put $1 on a 3-team upset parlay on my online sports betting account to win $120, I took UCF, Oklahoma and Auburn all straight up. I'd love to hedge my bet by betting some money on FSU straight up but with a 10.5 pt line you'd have to bet $100 just to win $30 or so.
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Posted on 1/6/14 at 10:00 am to TailbackU
quote:
Makes me a little more nervous wondering what insider news has come across the handicappers desks that would cause the line to move so much in the last couple days.
Insider news?
Everyone is betting on FSU. There's nothing else moving the line, they're trying to make Auburn a more attractive bet because not enough people are taking them.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 10:03 am to TailbackU
quote:
TailbackU
Auburn Fan
ATL
Member since Oct 2005
24 posts
Posted on 1/6/14 at 10:05 am to TailbackU
Does not worry me at all. "Vegas" doesn't know jack shite. "They" have missed on AU ten times in a row and by almost 2 TDs per game. The public is about to take a bath again and Vegas is going to collect big time when AU wins (and so am I 
)
We comin!
) We comin!
Posted on 1/6/14 at 10:07 am to Stonehog
quote:
Everyone is betting on FSU. There's nothing else moving the line, they're trying to make Auburn a more attractive bet because not enough people are taking them.
Not necessarily. People are constantly over betting the favorites. Vegas will sometimes "inflate" the line to increase their profit margins. For example, they might know that the line should be around 7-8, but they inflate it to 10.5 as people will still bet on FSU at that number. In these cases, they try to get above a 50% split on FSU at an artificially inflated number. When AU covers, they make more than the just the vig.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 10:08 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
I'll take Auburn and the points.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 10:08 am to TailbackU
Sharp money coming in big on FSU
Posted on 1/6/14 at 10:08 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
I'm letting the line inflate as much as it can before I place my bet this afternoon. I'm pretty sure that's what most people betting on AU are doing. The public thinks FSU is going to win so let them raise the line.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 10:11 am to CarolinaSoCocky
Public is probably around 60-65%. This isn't public money driving the line.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 10:11 am to TheOcean
People keep coming up with their own incorrect theories as to why the line is going up, but it's because the bigger bets are being placed on FSU. Everyone keeps saying public on FSU but #s tell a different story.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 10:16 am to Louie T
Doesn't matter if it's the public or big money, more wages are being placed on FSU than Auburn which will increase the line.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 10:19 am to Louie T
quote:
People keep coming up with their own incorrect theories as to why the line is going up, but it's because the bigger bets are being placed on FSU. Everyone keeps saying public on FSU but #s tell a different story.
Semantics. More money is on FSU, bottom line.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 10:20 am to CarolinaSoCocky
quote:Yes it does. Sportsbooks are a lot more willing to take a stand against the public and with sharper bettors (not saying that is the case here but it happens). We went through this last night on the MSB; the 50/50 split rarely happens because the line fluctuates too much (especially when the line opens as early as it does for a bowl game). Public is betting Auburn and the line is still climbing.
Doesn't matter if it's the public or big money
quote:And multiple people who follow market moves at sportsbooks have said the exact opposite.
more wages are being placed on FSU than Auburn which will increase the line.
No one is saying without a doubt FSU is the right side, but there is no disputing that public is on Auburn at this point and the line is moving in the opposite direction.
Once again, this isn't an infallible strategy but it is one of the strongest correlations in betting. Vegas has been wrong on Auburn the entire year though.
This post was edited on 1/6/14 at 10:25 am
Posted on 1/6/14 at 10:24 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
quote:
"Vegas" doesn't know jack shite
Ya, those casinos just build themselves. Posted on 1/6/14 at 10:25 am to TheOcean
quote:
Sharp money coming in big on FSU
No it isn't. I know more than any "sharp" about AU and I just put down my 7th bet on AU with more to come.
My biggest bets are on the moneyline at +210 though. I put the bets down the Monday after the SECCG. Line closed at Planet Hollywood at +10 and +290 last night and this morning it just opened at +10.5 and +300 so I might as well add to the position at the better line.
Does not make one iota of difference what the line does as far as the outcome or my confidence. I feel I know more about AU than 97% of the "sharps" as it is.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 10:26 am to CarolinaSoCocky
quote:
Doesn't matter if it's the public or big money, more wages are being placed on FSU than Auburn which will increase the line.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 10:29 am to Tiger n Miami AU83
So 60-65% public on fsu is driving the line two points? Please.
Posted on 1/6/14 at 10:30 am to EC Reb
quote:
quote:"Vegas" doesn't know jack shite Ya, those casinos just build themselves.
I know how it works. A lot of misinformation around here, about "Vegas" wanting to take sides. I always laugh at people saying that - it is often degenerate gamblers or people looking for an "edge".
The owners of the vegas Casinos are the public. The sportsbook take is nothing as far as the big picture of how they make money. All the people talking "vegas" taking sides and "trap games (most laughable fallacy there is about vegas sports betting) are lost.
This post was edited on 1/6/14 at 10:31 am
Posted on 1/6/14 at 10:31 am to TailbackU
There's not a ton of sharp money affecting things.
In general, the sharps either:
1) Took FSU @ 8 or 9
2) Passed
In general, the sharps either:
1) Took FSU @ 8 or 9
2) Passed
Posted on 1/6/14 at 10:33 am to TheOcean
quote:
Sharp money coming in big on FSU
just like the mizzou and bama games in the 24 hours leading up to kickoff...
we'll see soon enough.
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