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re: Latest Playoff Projections...how do you see this shaking out?
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:01 pm to Chicken
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:01 pm to Chicken
quote:
5 and 6 seeds appear to have noticeable advantage over 7, so it would look really bad to not rank 5, 6, and 7 purely on who is best.
First... I think OSU is the best team who didn't win a CCG. Yes, they laid an egg against Michigan, but they took Oregon to the wire on the road and beat PSU and have talent on par with Bama and UGA.
Second, they are looking to set up a TV product. The NCAA basketball committee massages rankings (admittedly so) to avoid early rematches. if you don't think that will happen here, you're crazy.
I think they avoid early UGA/Texas and Oregon/PSU rematches as hard as possible since those games JUST happened. I think they avoid UGA/Tennessee and Oregon/OSU rematches if they can as well, though I bet they'll be more okay with one of those since those games weren't as recent.
1
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:03 pm to DawginSC
quote:
They're going to massage the rankings to get a bracket good for TV
Using this logic, the committee would likely seed this to have the SEC playing through the 2-3 bracket and the B1G playing through the 1-4 bracket to give the best odds to artificially force a SEC-B1G championship game.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:03 pm to Chicken
I think only SEC and B10 should get locked in byes/top 4 seeds. Other 2 spots should be best next 2 teams via rankings.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:04 pm to DawginSC
quote:so did Boise State.
they took Oregon to the wire on the road
quote:Despite that, the committee still had Penn State three spots higher than Ohio State before this weekend...again, don't think you can penalize a team too much for losing a close one on championship weekend, especially to the No. 1 team.
I think OSU is the best team who didn't win a CCG.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:06 pm to Chicken
quote:
I will counter with:
1 Oregon
vs
8 - Ohio State vs 9 - Tennessee
2 UGA
vs
7 - PSU vs 10 Indiana
3 Boise State
vs
6 - Notre Dame vs 11 Alabama
4 ASU
vs
5 - Texas vs 12 Clemson
I could see that. But they might rather avoid OSU/Oregon in round 2 which is part of why I had had the original ordering. .
Also I think ND/Bama would be the 5/12 game and Texas/Clemson would be the 6/11 game. Doesn't really change much but with leaving SMU out I think they put Clemson ahead of Bama.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:09 pm to Chicken
quote:
so did Boise State.
And because of that they'll be ranked 3rd despite being from a non-P4 conference.
quote:
Despite that, the committee still had Penn State three spots higher than Ohio State before this weekend...again, don't think you can penalize a team too much for losing a close one on championship weekend, especially to the No. 1 team.
Dropping 3 spots to be behind a team that beat you when you add an additional loss isn't a big penalty. The only teams PSU would drop behind would be UGA (who won their CCG), ND (who will finish 11-1 instead of PSU's 11-2) and OSU (who beat PSU head to head).
That's not a big fall.
Texas would drop below the same 3 teams and PSU as well... which isn't a "true" ranking, but it sets up a better bracket and it can be justified by talking about ranked wins and such.
This post was edited on 12/7/24 at 10:11 pm
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:26 pm to DawginSC
quote:my point is that Ohio State going to wire with Oregon not as big a deal if the No. 10 ranked team from a small conference also did it.
And because of that they'll be ranked 3rd despite being from a non-P4 conference.
quote:but Texas was ranked above Penn State going into the weekend and lost a close game in overtime. just don't see them dropping like that.
Texas would drop below the same 3 teams and PSU as well.
I think your arguments on who is better is flawed...not saying that they won't massage the seedings to get desired matchups but that would be a garbage way to do it and unfair to some teams.
This post was edited on 12/7/24 at 10:27 pm
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:35 pm to Chicken
quote:
but Texas was ranked above Penn State going into the weekend and lost a close game in overtime. just don't see them dropping like that.
I think your arguments on who is better is flawed...not saying that they won't massage the seedings to get desired matchups but that would be a garbage way to do it and unfair to some teams.
If you're okay with "massaging the seedings" what do you think that would be if not moving a team 1-2 spots to avoid a rematch?
That's all we're talking about here.
We saw this in the 4-team playoff. The #1 and #2 seeds were chosen, then they mucked around with 3-4 to avoid rematches. So UGA didn't play Bama until the final in 2021 when the reality is they probably should have been the first round matchup with Cincy getting the 3 seed and UGA getting the 4. They reversed it so they didn't have a repeat of the SECCG in round 1.
This post was edited on 12/7/24 at 10:39 pm
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:36 pm to DawginSC
There are a lot of playoffs games...four the first round, four the quarter finals, two in semifinals and one championship...11 games...if we get some rematches, so be it...I want them teams seeded solely on strength.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:40 pm to Chicken
quote:
There are a lot of playoffs games...four the first round, four the quarter finals, two in semifinals and one championship...11 games...if we get some rematches, so be it...I want them teams seeded solely on strength.
It didn't happen in the 4-team playoff, it doesn't happen in basketball... why do you think it will happen here?
It's a TV product. They'll make adjustments of 1-2 spots to set up good games. The 12 teams that earn their way in will get in, but the matchups will have a lot to do with TV draws.
This post was edited on 12/7/24 at 10:41 pm
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:40 pm to Chicken
I think they’ll massage it at best they can so the we don’t have intraconference games in the first round. They want the SEC and the Big Ten to fight it out. They don’t want the winner of Bama and Texas to play the winner of Penn State and Indiana. They want those teams to face each other and then hit the big conference winners in the semis.
Follow the money guys.
Follow the money guys.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:42 pm to TripleBarrelBluff1
quote:
I think you can go ahead and forget about this scenario.
This aged well.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:50 pm to Chicken
quote:replace 11. Alabama with 11. SMU now that they were a last second 56 yd FG away from a playoff bye.
My guess at seedings:
1 Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Boise State
4. Arizona State
5. Texas
6. Notre Dame
7. Penn State
8. Ohio State
9. Tennessee
10. Indiana
11. Alabama
12. Clemson
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:51 pm to 1BIGTigerFan
quote:
This aged well.
Didn't it though.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:55 pm to Who_Dat_Tiger
Updated Projection:
1 Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Boise State
4. Arizona State
5. Texas
6. Notre Dame
7. Penn State
8. Ohio State
9. Tennessee
10. Indiana
11. Clemson
12. SMU
Which would give us:
8. Ohio State vs 9. Tennessee
Winner plays 1. Oregon
7. Penn State vs 10. Indiana
Winner plays 2. Georgia
6. Notre Dame vs 11. Clemson
Winner plays 3. Boise State
5. Texas vs 12. SMU
Winner plays 4. Arizona State
1 Oregon
2. Georgia
3. Boise State
4. Arizona State
5. Texas
6. Notre Dame
7. Penn State
8. Ohio State
9. Tennessee
10. Indiana
11. Clemson
12. SMU
Which would give us:
8. Ohio State vs 9. Tennessee
Winner plays 1. Oregon
7. Penn State vs 10. Indiana
Winner plays 2. Georgia
6. Notre Dame vs 11. Clemson
Winner plays 3. Boise State
5. Texas vs 12. SMU
Winner plays 4. Arizona State
This post was edited on 12/7/24 at 10:55 pm
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:57 pm to Chicken
I don’t care what the line is I will pound ND over Clemson
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:57 pm to Chicken
Texas will not be playing SMU.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:57 pm to Chicken
Oregon gets totally screwed there, but I agree it will be something like that
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:58 pm to Chicken
Now that games are final, here's my guess:
1 Oregon
vs
8 - OSU vs 9 - Tennessee
2 UGA
vs
7 - ND vs 10 Indiana
3 Boise State
vs
6 - PSU vs 11 Clemson
4 ASU
vs
5 - Texas vs 12 SMU
Texas/SMU in round 1 gives they the most interesting matchup for SMU.
ND vs Indiana also is an in-state game.
1 Oregon
vs
8 - OSU vs 9 - Tennessee
2 UGA
vs
7 - ND vs 10 Indiana
3 Boise State
vs
6 - PSU vs 11 Clemson
4 ASU
vs
5 - Texas vs 12 SMU
Texas/SMU in round 1 gives they the most interesting matchup for SMU.
ND vs Indiana also is an in-state game.
Posted on 12/7/24 at 10:58 pm to TxWadingFool
Who will they play? Alabama?
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