quote:
Alabama's average ranking per recruit is 92.86 for the Class of 2025.

For perspective, Georgia and Alabama's average ranking per recruit for the Class of 2024 was 93.61 and 93.12.

The issue you're missing with this analysis is that most teams end up filling up with low 4-star and 3-star recruits at the end of the recruiting cycle to make up their final class which brings down everyone's overall ranking from where it stands at this time of year..

What made Saban special is he filled up with top flight talent without much of a dip. Smart and Day do the same to a lesser degree than Saban did. But MOST coaches don't.

Right now Bama is 7th in average player ranking with their 92.86. That's a more accurate analysis of where they stand. They're 3rd in the rankings because of volume, not because of the quality of the class.

That's not bad. But I can't remember a time where at any point in the season under Saban where Bama wasn't in the top 3 in average player ranking.

Deboer is doing pretty good in recruiting by the standards of any school other than UGA, Bama and OSU in recent years. But by the standards of those schools, he's not up to snuff.

The reality right now is with where Bama is sitting they seem likely not just to finish below OSU and UGA, but also teams like Clemson, Oregon and LSU.

You're making the same kind of mistake that Tennessee or Florida fans have made in the past when their team is higher in the rankings with 5+ more commits than other teams with a similar or higher average player rating.

Bama has 17 commits and 1 5-star. In a Saban class, with 17 commits there would be at least 3 5-stars on board (like OSU has with 16 commits and 3 5-stars).

It will still be a top 10 class. Somewhere between 6 and 10 most likely. But you're not being realistic if you think this will be a top 3 class with 5+ 5-star recruits in it. Deboer is settling for lesser guys early in the process which is why his commit number is high but the number of 5-stars is lower than normal under Saban.

Look at the uncommitted guys in the top 10.

2 is favored to Clemson with OSU, Tennessee and UGA also at high interest.
3 is favored to Texas with Oregon, LSU and OSU also at high interest.
4 is favored to UGA with USC and Miami at high interest.
7 has no favorite with UGA, OU, Miami and Orgon at high interest.
10 is favored to A&M with LSU, OSU, OU, Oregon, Texas and USC at high interest.

Bama has none of the top 10 committed and none showing anything other than "cool" interest in Bama.

The next 10 has 3 guys showed as having anything above "cool" interest and 0 commits.

The 10 after that has 1 commit to Bama and 1 other player with more than "cool" interest.

That's not the normal level for Bama under Saban. Not even close. 1 Commit and only 4 other players amongst the top 30 (which includes ALL 5-stars) who even have more that a little interest in Bama at this stage.

That's not like it was under Saban..

OSU (who'll likely end up with the top class this year) has 3 commits from the top 30, 2 others they're shown as "leading" for and is at the top of the lists in terms of interest for 4 more. That's where Bama was at this point under Saban usually. In the running or having commits for around 8-10 of the 5 stars.

Bama basically needs to hit on EVERY other 5-star who has any interest in them finish in the top 3 this year. And that will probably only net them 3rd.

If they hit with 2 of the 4 that have interest in Bama in the top 30, they'll probably end up around 5th or 6th. Less than that and they'll be around 7-10.

31-40 Bama has 1 commit and 0 interest.
41-50 Bama has 0 commits and 0 interest.
51-60 Bama has 1 commit and 0 interest
61-70 Bama has 0 commits and 2 with interest.
71-80 Bama has 1 commit and 2 with interest.
81-90 Bama has 0 commits and 1 with interest.
91-100 Bama has 0 commits and 3 with interest.

Bama's playing on a smaller playing field than in years under Saban in terms of the number of recruits interested, and they're playing for guys further down the list than Saban normally did.

Not being Saban isn't saying that Deboer sucks. It's just indicated that there IS a step down and the data is showing that it's happening. It's delusional to think he's at Saban's recruiting level.