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Josh Pate dispels the myth of the "Bama Bump"
Posted on 1/28/22 at 12:28 pm
Posted on 1/28/22 at 12:28 pm
He intelligently points out that the "Bama Bump" crowd, who love to talk on Signing Day about how it's a conspiracy that Alabama gets all of these top classes, conveniently disappears in January and April - months when Alabama is either playing for a national championship or putting multiple players into the first round of the NFL Draft.
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Posted on 1/28/22 at 12:30 pm to RollTide1987
So the Bama Bump is fact. That's is what he is saying? He is just justifying it because Bama is successful?
Posted on 1/28/22 at 12:32 pm to HottyToddy7
quote:
That's is what he is saying?
He's actually saying that Alabama's recruiting classes might be underrated. At the end of the video he points out that 48.8% of Alabama's five stars get drafted into the first round. The rate is under 19% for the rest of college football. So if you are a five star at Alabama, you are more than twice as likely as to be drafted into the first round as you are anywhere else.
Posted on 1/28/22 at 12:32 pm to RollTide1987
He's missed the mark entirely, based on the headline of the tweet. I didn't watch the video.
Not a soul is calling them overrated. What people are saying is that when a player commits to alabama they will often shoot up the rankings, thereby improving alabama's class ranking.
Now..there is obviously some logical thinking behind this. If a guy is good enough for a scholarhip at bama, it's enirely possible that he may have been very undervalued in the 200s or wherever, and may warrant being higher. BUT, even if that was 10000% true, rivals needs to stop pretending it isn't true. They should just own it and say it. "yeah, bama offered this guy so we raised his ranking. If he's good enough for saban he's good enough to be int eh top 100". Instead of hemming and hawing about how they now have "more film" or he did good at camp or something.
Not a soul is calling them overrated. What people are saying is that when a player commits to alabama they will often shoot up the rankings, thereby improving alabama's class ranking.
Now..there is obviously some logical thinking behind this. If a guy is good enough for a scholarhip at bama, it's enirely possible that he may have been very undervalued in the 200s or wherever, and may warrant being higher. BUT, even if that was 10000% true, rivals needs to stop pretending it isn't true. They should just own it and say it. "yeah, bama offered this guy so we raised his ranking. If he's good enough for saban he's good enough to be int eh top 100". Instead of hemming and hawing about how they now have "more film" or he did good at camp or something.
Posted on 1/28/22 at 12:35 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
He's missed the mark entirely
quote:
I didn't watch the video.
Lazy frick.
Posted on 1/28/22 at 12:35 pm to WG_Dawg
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Not a soul is calling them overrated.
Some of the recruits ARE overrated. That's just a fact - see Ben Davis. But that isn't the subject of the thread
Posted on 1/28/22 at 12:36 pm to RollTide1987
Players gain recruiting ranks after the most meaningful 2-3 month period of their football careers to this point (playoffs as seniors and AA games/practices) and people think its some conspiracy.
I do think there is some confirmation bias because Bama has been so good at player evaluations where Bama recruits move up a bit more than they probably should relative to recruits of other teams, specifically around the All-American events. But I also don't think they are bumping Bama recruits without any reason other than the fact they are Bama recruits.
I do think there is some confirmation bias because Bama has been so good at player evaluations where Bama recruits move up a bit more than they probably should relative to recruits of other teams, specifically around the All-American events. But I also don't think they are bumping Bama recruits without any reason other than the fact they are Bama recruits.
Posted on 1/28/22 at 12:37 pm to RollTide1987
If saban felt that certain HS players should be 6* recruits.... then changes would happen amd and you'd start seeing a 6* rating.
Posted on 1/28/22 at 12:37 pm to RollTide1987
Man who works for 247 sports says 247 sports isn't biased. More at 10.
Posted on 1/28/22 at 12:41 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
Not a soul is calling them overrated. What people are saying is that when a player commits to alabama they will often shoot up the rankings, thereby improving alabama's class ranking.
But that would make them overrated
Posted on 1/28/22 at 12:43 pm to V Bainbridge
quote:
Man who works for 247 sports says 247 sports isn't biased. More at 10.
Man who works for 247 sports shows with facts that 247 does not in the aggregate overvalue Bama players (which was the original take people had about the "Bama bump") but, rather, may actually undervalue them relative to their college success and NFL draft status. More at 11.
Posted on 1/28/22 at 12:43 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
Now..there is obviously some logical thinking behind this. If a guy is good enough for a scholarhip at bama, it's enirely possible that he may have been very undervalued in the 200s or wherever, and may warrant being higher. BUT, even if that was 10000% true, rivals needs to stop pretending it isn't true. They should just own it and say it. "yeah, bama offered this guy so we raised his ranking. If he's good enough for saban he's good enough to be int eh top 100". Instead of hemming and hawing about how they now have "more film" or he did good at camp or something.
Yes this is spot on. Javon Brooks for example, A so called 4 star receiver out of Georgia in which I don't think Georgia offered. He runs a 4.8 40. He's billed as being a "tough" receiver. He goes to Bama and does nothing. He enters the transfer portal and ends up at Kentucky. Just one example.
Posted on 1/28/22 at 12:45 pm to RollTide1987
The whole Bama bump narrative is proof that humans are addicted to bitching. Even if its true it is of 0 consequence
Posted on 1/28/22 at 12:49 pm to RollTide1987
It's not just that they raise the rating of players that commit to Bama. It's that they lower the ratings of players that don't commit to Bama.
Posted on 1/28/22 at 12:50 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
Not a soul is calling them overrated.
Well, not anymore they aren't. But you know damn well that the original complaint about the "Bama bump" was that the recruiting sites were taking, for example, a Bama commit who should truly be a "4 star" and bumping them to a "5 star" and thus overrating them. Then Bama went on a unprecedented run of success in college football and NFL draft picks making that "overrated" take look completely foolish.
So now the messaging about the "Bama bump" has been tweaked. I guess the complaint now is they bump these Bama commits and even though we know it will usually be proven that the higher rating is completely justified we still don't like it, damn it!
Posted on 1/28/22 at 12:56 pm to RollTide1987
Walker Howard was a 5 star QB and ranked the #1 QB in the 2022 class.
After signing with LSU he was dropped to a 4 star. What changed?
After signing with LSU he was dropped to a 4 star. What changed?
Posted on 1/28/22 at 1:04 pm to SeekGreatness
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After signing with LSU he was dropped to a 4 star. What changed?
Which organization dropped him from a 5 star to a 4 star and when did it happen?
Posted on 1/28/22 at 1:08 pm to elposter
Ask your boy Barrett Jones if the Bama bump is real.
Kid had never played center at all in high school but that didn't stop Rivals from listing him as the #1 center in the country, which is what it took to give Bama the #1 class that year.
Kid had never played center at all in high school but that didn't stop Rivals from listing him as the #1 center in the country, which is what it took to give Bama the #1 class that year.
Posted on 1/28/22 at 1:13 pm to KennesawTiger
Aaron Anderson was a three star when he was projected to LSU, he became a five star after committing to Alabama. It's pretty comical.
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