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Is it reasonable to expect Tennessee football to turn around?

Posted on 5/30/17 at 3:38 pm
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 5/30/17 at 3:38 pm
Everyone acts like the Vols ought to get their stuff together and get back to competing for Championships on a regular basis. I think the vast majority of CFB fans know that Tennessee was a once great program, going back to the 1930s, '40s, and '50s under Neyland, and they remember the great Fulmer teams and they think that Tennessee football *should* be that good all the time.

But is this factual?

Most people forget that Tennessee was slowly declining as a program for an entire generation until that program caught lightning in a bottle in the 1990s. Just look at their trajectory:

Tennessee Football AP Ranking by Decade:
1940s: #4
1950s: #9
1960s: #15
1970s: #15
1980s: #25
1990s: #4
2000s: #20
2010s: #47

Since the 1940s, the Vol program has been on a very obvious downward trajectory, only to be interrupted briefly by their success of the 1990s and early 2000s. But think about everything that happened simultaneously in the '90s to help that happen:

1. They land a once in a generation type of QB in Peyton Manning who stayed all 4 years and helped get Tennessee into the national title picture nearly every year.

2. This coincides with rival Alabama on probation and in the cellar at the exact same time.

3. This also coincides with the slight slump in success that seemed to plague Florida during the last several years of the Spurrier era, followed by the Zook era in Gainesville. Florida won the SEC in '91, '93, '94, '95, and '96. From 1997-2005, the Gators won just one SEC Title in 9 years.

Conclusion: Everyone seems to treat Tennessee's recent decade of misery as the anomaly. But is it really their decade of great success (1995-2004) that is the true anomaly? Maybe Tennessee football has finally gotten back on track to the trajectory that has been taking place since it started this slow decline in the late 1950s.

I don't think Tennessee football should be ranked #47 in the AP in any given decade, as they currently are from 2010-2016. However, I think it might be unrealistic to consider Tennessee as the type of program that *should* be in the Top 25 every single season.

Are people putting unrealistic expectations on the UT program these days? Maybe Butch Jones has them right where they ought to be. Maybe Tennessee is in the exact spot that Ole Miss found themselves in during the 1970s. Ole Miss was a dominant, national powerhouse from the 1940s up through 1963. I imagine CFB fans in the early 1970s were saying, "It's only a matter of time before Ole Miss gets back to where they are supposed to be.".... only we're 40 years down the road and Ole Miss still isn't back.

Is Tennessee on that same path now?
Posted by Serraneaux
South of 30a
Member since Mar 2014
19591 posts
Posted on 5/30/17 at 3:40 pm to
This is hilarious coming from a Geor2ia phan
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
69228 posts
Posted on 5/30/17 at 3:40 pm to
Butch stones has stabilized the program, but they need someone else to take it to the upper echelons again.
Posted by themicah85
DALLAS TX
Member since Jul 2015
3501 posts
Posted on 5/30/17 at 3:40 pm to
Thats alot of tennessee on your mind.
Posted by TRUERockyTop
Appalachia
Member since Sep 2011
15807 posts
Posted on 5/30/17 at 3:40 pm to
Not sure. We've always been better than Georgia though.
This post was edited on 5/30/17 at 3:41 pm
Posted by The Winner
Member since Nov 2016
7908 posts
Posted on 5/30/17 at 3:41 pm to
Tennessee will never come back. That ship sailed in the 1990's when they were last relevant
Posted by dawgdayafternoon
Jacksonville, GA
Member since Jul 2011
21582 posts
Posted on 5/30/17 at 3:42 pm to
quote:

Everyone seems to treat Tennessee's recent decade of misery as the anomaly. But is it really their decade of great success (1995-2004) that is the true anomaly?

Look at their average rank for the decades prior to 2010. That pretty much says it all.
Posted by Serraneaux
South of 30a
Member since Mar 2014
19591 posts
Posted on 5/30/17 at 3:43 pm to
quote:

Not sure. We've always been better than Georgia though.


Posted by Torch
Northshore Dr
Member since Feb 2017
3282 posts
Posted on 5/30/17 at 3:48 pm to
I think one could just as easily argue that the '80s and '10s have been anomalies and that our natural place would be somewhere in the top 20. I don't know that we will post another decade of top 5, so if that is the requirement to be considered "back" or "relevant" then perhaps we won't ever turn it around.
This post was edited on 5/30/17 at 3:54 pm
Posted by scrooster
Resident Ethicist
Member since Jul 2012
37573 posts
Posted on 5/30/17 at 3:52 pm to
Tennessee has a good program, good tradition, facilities, etc.

I'm not sure they're considered an elite program though, nor will they ever be again for any period of time.

Tennessee has a lot going against it right now - it's not like the old days up in Knoxville. This latest stretch sorta sullied the perception many have of the program. They may never fully recover.

Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 5/30/17 at 3:56 pm to
quote:

Not sure. We've always been better than Georgia though.


Always? How about this century...

Since 2000:

Head-to-Head: Georgia leads 11-6
SEC Titles: Georgia 2; Tennessee 0
SEC East Titles: Georgia 5; Tennessee 3
Top 5 Finishes: Georgia 3; Tennessee 1
Top 10 Finishes: Georgia 7; Tennessee 1
Top 25 Finishes: Georgia 12; Tennessee 7
AP Ranking (2000-2016): Georgia #9; Tennessee #31

Sure. Tennessee has *ALWAYS* been better than Georgia... if you don't count the current century that is.
Posted by SavageOrangeJug
Member since Oct 2005
19758 posts
Posted on 5/30/17 at 3:58 pm to
We still beat your piece of shite team and own the series....even after the worst stretch in our history.

UGA hasn't won shite in a long time either. Hell, the last time you won a national championship some of your players' parent weren't even alive.

So, suck our Big Orange dicks and brown assholes.
This post was edited on 5/30/17 at 8:00 pm
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 5/30/17 at 4:01 pm to
quote:

I'm not sure they're considered an elite program though,


They were very much elite though up through the early 2000s.

From a historical perspective, I still do consider them an elite program. But I also view Nebraska to be elite. I think Nebraska and Tennessee are programs that have a ton of historical success but don't have a particularly bright future unless something major turns things around. I don't see it happening though for either of them.

Within 20 or 30 years, I'm not sure either will be considered "elite", even in a historical point of view. I mean Minnesota has 4 AP National Titles, but they are nowhere close to being "elite". Eventually the bad years mount up to where they cancel out any championships and accomplishments of the past.

Tennessee isn't there yet, but they are headed that way.
Posted by TT9
Global warming
Member since Sep 2008
82952 posts
Posted on 5/30/17 at 4:02 pm to
quote:

Tennessee isn't there yet,
yes they are.
Posted by hogNsinceReagan
Fayetteville, Ar
Member since Feb 2015
5879 posts
Posted on 5/30/17 at 4:02 pm to
Next year, when their QB has some experience.
Posted by Serraneaux
South of 30a
Member since Mar 2014
19591 posts
Posted on 5/30/17 at 4:03 pm to
Since 1936, Tennessee is still a better football program than UGA. Going by your decade rankings, I think Tennessee has had the better program 6 out of 9 decades :)
Posted by ohiovol
Member since Jan 2010
20828 posts
Posted on 5/30/17 at 4:11 pm to


Tennessee hasn't even been trying for a while now. Jim Haslam (who played for General Neyland and won a national title at Tennessee) apparently now thinks that being good at football is bad for academics, and thinks Tennessee should be more like Virginia. He has delivered on the shitty football. I guess we're still waiting on the good academics part.
This post was edited on 5/30/17 at 4:13 pm
Posted by TRUERockyTop
Appalachia
Member since Sep 2011
15807 posts
Posted on 5/30/17 at 4:12 pm to
Go start this thread on a program that you're not on a 2 game losing streak to and that isn't better than yours in just about every possible way. Maybe you'll have better luck. Tennessee owns you in 9 major categories to your 2.





This post was edited on 5/30/17 at 4:28 pm
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 5/30/17 at 4:13 pm to
quote:

Since 1936, Tennessee is still a better football program than UGA. Going by your decade rankings, I think Tennessee has had the better program 6 out of 9 decades :)


Yep. You are correct. Let's look at which team was rated higher in the AP by decade:

1940s: Tennessee (UT #4; UGA #9)
1950s: Tennessee (UT #9; UGA #41)
1960s: Tennessee (UT #15; UGA #22)
1970s: Tennessee (UT #15; UGA #21
1980s: Georgia (UGA #9; UT #25)
1990s: Tennessee (UT #4; UGA #16)
2000s: Georgia (UGA #7; UT #20)
2010s: Georgia (UGA #19; UT #47)

So in 3 of the most recent 4 decades, Georgia has been the better program. All except for that glaring anomaly of the 1990s. Again, this proves my point.

Tennessee was solidly a better program than Georgia from the 1930s up through the 1970s. Since then, only the 1990s have been particularly successful for the Vols.

Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 5/30/17 at 4:32 pm to
You seem to be confused. We're not talking about the past. Everyone acknowledges that Tennessee has quite a solid list of accomplishments, IN THE PAST. We're talking about the current trajectory and the apparent future.

And the past 15 years at Tennessee have been bleak. And the future looks pretty dismal.

Now you can change topics and go back to talking about the past, but that does not change the fact hat UT football is on the same path as Ole Miss and Minnesota.
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