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re: Interesting SOS
Posted on 10/29/25 at 6:31 am to roadGator
Posted on 10/29/25 at 6:31 am to roadGator
To be fair though, it's not like Indiana is beating these teams by a score or two which is what Ohio State (whether they were good or not) or Michigan (the one year they were good) did when they would "cruise" through B1G games.
Indiana is putting a "Saban Bama HeyDay" beat down on these teams. They're also doing this in the NIL/TP era which is fairly impressive. Honestly, if Indiana is really good, they *should* be doing this and they are.
Indiana is putting a "Saban Bama HeyDay" beat down on these teams. They're also doing this in the NIL/TP era which is fairly impressive. Honestly, if Indiana is really good, they *should* be doing this and they are.
1
Posted on 10/29/25 at 6:36 am to theballguy
quote:
To be fair though, it's not like Indiana is beating these teams by a score or two which is what Ohio State
Indiana is definitely sucking the life out of their opponents and most games are over by halftime. You are right- this reminds me of Saban’s beat downs. I would probably
(1) Texas A&M
(2) Indiana
(3) OSU
Right now but unlike a lot of posters in here I won’t judge the other conferences until we see the product on the field in the post season. Last year people were bitching about the Big Ten and they won like 86 percent of the bowl games and the national championship.
This post was edited on 10/29/25 at 6:37 am
Posted on 10/29/25 at 6:41 am to Nasty_Canasta
I think that's fair. I have no issue with Ohio State and Indiana at 1 and 2. Rankings don't mean anything more than potential playoff placings at this point.
Posted on 10/29/25 at 6:44 am to Crimson Wraith
They’re going to just look at records and make the same mistake as last year aren’t they?
Posted on 10/29/25 at 6:48 am to Old Sarge
I’ll help you kid
Key components of the calculation
Baseline win expectation: Project the number of wins an average team would get against the team's schedule. This can be done through simulation or by using statistical models that account for opponent quality, location, and other factors.
Actual win total: The team's actual number of wins.
Win differential: Subtract the projected wins from the actual wins.
A positive difference means the team performed better than an average team would have against that schedule.
A negative difference means the team performed worse than an average team would have against that schedule.
Other factors: Some SOR calculations also incorporate other elements like:
Strength of schedule: The quality of opponents played.
Location of games: The advantage or disadvantage of playing at home or on the road.
Efficiency ratings: Like ESPN's BPI, which goes beyond simple win/loss to consider point margins, pace, and other metrics.
How it's different from Strength of Schedule (SOS)
SOR is a backward-looking metric that measures how strong a team's record is relative to its schedule. It assesses the quality of the achievement itself.
SOS is a forward-looking metric that measures how difficult a team's schedule is. It favors teams that have played tough schedules, even if they have more losses.
Key components of the calculation
Baseline win expectation: Project the number of wins an average team would get against the team's schedule. This can be done through simulation or by using statistical models that account for opponent quality, location, and other factors.
Actual win total: The team's actual number of wins.
Win differential: Subtract the projected wins from the actual wins.
A positive difference means the team performed better than an average team would have against that schedule.
A negative difference means the team performed worse than an average team would have against that schedule.
Other factors: Some SOR calculations also incorporate other elements like:
Strength of schedule: The quality of opponents played.
Location of games: The advantage or disadvantage of playing at home or on the road.
Efficiency ratings: Like ESPN's BPI, which goes beyond simple win/loss to consider point margins, pace, and other metrics.
How it's different from Strength of Schedule (SOS)
SOR is a backward-looking metric that measures how strong a team's record is relative to its schedule. It assesses the quality of the achievement itself.
SOS is a forward-looking metric that measures how difficult a team's schedule is. It favors teams that have played tough schedules, even if they have more losses.
Posted on 10/29/25 at 7:03 am to Old Sarge
The new SEC 9 game rotating schedules are going to make things harder for all of us unless the Big10 does something similar, or the CFP committee starts giving SOS more importance in their calculations.
Posted on 10/29/25 at 7:08 am to Tideroller
quote:
game rotating schedules are going to make things harder for all of us unless the Big10 does something similar
The Big 10 already has been doing that
What we need is for them to adopt the 1 P4 OOC rule
Posted on 10/29/25 at 7:13 am to Tideroller
Going to 9 games was just stupid unless we are going to completely stop playing other power 4 conferences
Stankey did it for only one reason, to cover the fact that he brought in Utrans and Oklahoma and didn’t get the conference a single penny more for it
What a disgrace he is
Stankey did it for only one reason, to cover the fact that he brought in Utrans and Oklahoma and didn’t get the conference a single penny more for it
What a disgrace he is
Posted on 10/29/25 at 8:02 am to Old Sarge
I would suspect the Big Ten would follow suit on the 1 Power 4 game, most of us do it anyway (cough, cough PSU).
Also, I wouldn’t fret about your 9 game schedule. Additional amazing matchups which will cement the tv ratings dominance for all slots not containing OSU or Michigan (when they are good). This will be incredibly solid data when tv contracts are renegotiated
Also, I wouldn’t fret about your 9 game schedule. Additional amazing matchups which will cement the tv ratings dominance for all slots not containing OSU or Michigan (when they are good). This will be incredibly solid data when tv contracts are renegotiated
Posted on 10/29/25 at 8:43 am to Old Sarge
quote:
Stankey did it for only one reason, to cover the fact that he brought in Utrans and Oklahoma and didn’t get the conference a single penny more for it
He did it to force the Big 10 to accept the 5+11 playoff format when we move to a 16 team model.
They want 4 guaranteed spots and the 8 conference game schedule was their bargaining chip.
Posted on 10/29/25 at 8:57 am to TideSaint
Part of the equation but the playoffs will expand
the networks demanded the 9th game if we wanted more money
the networks demanded the 9th game if we wanted more money
Posted on 10/29/25 at 9:16 am to Crimson Wraith
I've quit looking at these SOS and SOR lists because at the end of the day they're not going to make a material difference in the playoff selection. They'll be looked at by the committee but ulimately won't be used as a deciding factor for the selection. They proved that last season.
Posted on 10/29/25 at 9:24 am to Old Sarge
quote:
Key components of the calculation
Baseline win expectation: Project the number of wins an average team would get against the team's schedule. This can be done through simulation or by using statistical models that account for opponent quality, location, and other factors.
Actual win total: The team's actual number of wins.
Win differential: Subtract the projected wins from the actual wins.
A positive difference means the team performed better than an average team would have against that schedule.
A negative difference means the team performed worse than an average team would have against that schedule.
Other factors: Some SOR calculations also incorporate other elements like:
Strength of schedule: The quality of opponents played.
Location of games: The advantage or disadvantage of playing at home or on the road.
Efficiency ratings: Like ESPN's BPI, which goes beyond simple win/loss to consider point margins, pace, and other metrics.
How it's different from Strength of Schedule (SOS)
SOR is a backward-looking metric that measures how strong a team's record is relative to its schedule. It assesses the quality of the achievement itself.
SOS is a forward-looking metric that measures how difficult a team's schedule is. It favors teams that have played tough schedules, even if they have more losses.
When you start inserting criteria in calculations that are based off of estimates and projections, it's like pre season rankings, it's just crap. We won't be able to tell anything until these teams actually play each other. Until then, it's just pure conjecture.
Posted on 10/29/25 at 9:35 am to NWLA_Bama
SOS is partially based off of rankings that change too
Posted on 10/29/25 at 9:46 am to Old Sarge
None of the crap matters though. Look at Texas, Clemson, Penn State, and Notre Dame. All four of them were highly ranked but in reality they weren't that good. And you've got teams who (for whatever reason) were lower ranked or not ranked at all that are actually good, but they just don't get any respect. And you've got Notre Dame and Texas still benefitting from the pre season rankings by them still being in the rankings at all.
Until teams play each other and the matchups that go along with them, no one knows who's legitimately good and who's not. I know the AP and coaches' poll "don't matter" but there's no way anyone can convince me they don't influence the CFP committee's rankings. They definitely do because they mirror them so close and that's not a coinky dink. I wish there wouldn't be ANY rankings put beside anyones name until after September and October are over. Then let the CFP committee assign the rankings. But I get it, the unofficial rankings by the AP and coache's poll drive discussion, keep college football being talked about seven days a week and provides material for all these shows and podcasts to operate on. It's about the $$$$ as usual.
Until teams play each other and the matchups that go along with them, no one knows who's legitimately good and who's not. I know the AP and coaches' poll "don't matter" but there's no way anyone can convince me they don't influence the CFP committee's rankings. They definitely do because they mirror them so close and that's not a coinky dink. I wish there wouldn't be ANY rankings put beside anyones name until after September and October are over. Then let the CFP committee assign the rankings. But I get it, the unofficial rankings by the AP and coache's poll drive discussion, keep college football being talked about seven days a week and provides material for all these shows and podcasts to operate on. It's about the $$$$ as usual.
Posted on 10/29/25 at 9:51 am to NWLA_Bama
100% agree
Nothing matters until the games are all played
Nothing matters until the games are all played
Posted on 10/29/25 at 9:55 am to GamerAg
quote:
B1G is a cakewalk every year
True dat...
Hoosiers are going to get bent over fast if they play any SEC school in the playoffs.
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