re: History shows Nick Saban's time as an elite coach is almost (if not already) over

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I enjoy contemplating and discussing the history of the game and what it can teach us about the present day. Is that not allowed?

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Shouldn't you be heading over to the liquor store right about now to spend your gubmint' check?

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Yes, though still off from his height at KState when he had 6 top 10 finishes in 8 years.

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I think the game changed quite a bit in terms of what was possible at Kansas State between the mid-90s and the 2010s.

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Jury is still out on Mack to a point I guess but I think it's pretty unlikely he'll hit the heights he had at Texas again.

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Well, he's at North Carolina and not Texas, so I agree. But the things he's currently doing at North Carolina look a whole lot more like young Mack Brown at UNC and Texas than 2010-2013 Mack Brown.

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When you're talking about the best to ever do something, comparing them to other people in an attempt to predict the future is difficult. Just because other coaches dropped off at a certain age, that doesn't mean Saban will.

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Also throw in the fact that Saban has had more success than all those guys

I see him more as the kind of guy who wouldn't know what to do with himself without football & thus will never retire until forced.

I think he'll be at Bama for awhile still, but I wonder what the reaction would be among fans and boosters if/when he strings together a few 9-3 seasons in a row.

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I see him more as the kind of guy who wouldn't know what to do with himself without football & thus will never retire until forced.

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I don't think he'll know what to do with himself either, but I'm just not sure he will want to keep going once his mind and/or body fail him. And he'll know when it happens.

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I think he'll be at Bama for awhile still, but I wonder what the reaction would be among fans and boosters if/when he strings together a few 9-3 seasons in a row.

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I don't think it'll be a huge deal assuming we're still close and signing great players and bookend those with great seasons. You knew that FSU in the mid/late-2000s was just clearly not an elite program anymore. However, Penn State from 2005-2009 had 3 very good teams (2005, 2008, 2009) and 2 good not great teams. If Saban had a 5 year run like that to end things I'm guessing people would be ok with it.

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However, Penn State from 2005-2009 had 3 very good teams (2005, 2008, 2009) and 2 good not great teams.

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Had to go through 4 losing season in 5 years to get there though

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Had to go through 4 losing season in 5 years to get there though

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Yea, which won't happen here. I wasn't discussing Paterno's entire tenure, just a specific run that I think would be a step down from where we are right now but that would be acceptable to most.

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Guys who are stubborn narcissists don't do that - they continue to try and pound a round peg into a square hole

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While I agree he has adapted brilliantly, your statement is simply not factually true. Narcissists will adapt as well, in fact most high-functioning narcissist's do this as a matter of course, whether it be in industry, business etc. They just take credit for it, which Saban eagerly does.

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No, many of these coaches stayed on as the head coach of their school for many years beyond their drop off from their prime.

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Joe Paterno is literally the only one where this is true. As his "drop off" started in 1995, despite the fact he would rack up 10 more seasons of 9 wins or more. It's really difficult to say a coach has dropped off in a certain year when his team records an AP Top 3 finish 10 years after the fact but to each their own.

Bobby Bowden stopped coaching sometime in the early-00s as he has said in at least one interview. Bear Bryant dropped off because he was dying. It's also difficult to say he dropped off in 1980 when his team had an outside shot at winning the national championship going into the post-season in 1981. If Alabama had defeated Texas in the Cotton Bowl and Clemson had lost to Nebraska in the Orange Bowl, Alabama are your champions. His drop off was clearly his last season when he went 8-4. He knew he was done, resigned, and died less than a month after his final game. The 1980 "drop off" is also insane when you realize his team was undefeated and ranked #1 in college football going into November of that season.

Looking at Pop Warner's "drop off" I'd also disagree with you here as well. You put it at 1928 but I would put it at 1932 - his last year at Stanford. He then went to coach at Temple for the last five years of his career - an obvious retirement job. But even at Temple he took them to the Sugar Bowl in the '34 season.

As far as Amos Alonzo Stagg is concerned, it's difficult to put a "drop off" year on him as he finished his career with 199 losses. Up until recently he had more career losses than any other coach in college football history. Watson Brown finally surpassed him in 2014. But even after your "drop off" year of 1925, he won five conference championships at Pacific between 1936-1942.

I have absolutely no argument with Frank Beamer's drop off year, nor do I have an argument with Lavell Edwards, though I think it's rather obvious he was coasting his final years towards retirement. I think Mack Brown lost whatever fire he had left in him after that 2010 Citi BCS National Championship Game. He needed a change in scenery and had a solid first season at North Carolina. They finished 7-6 under him after going 2-9 the year before.

I disagree with your "drop off" year for Lou Holtz as I think the man started dropping off in the mid-90s at Notre Dame. He knew it, too, which is why he resigned. He took the South Carolina gig as sort of a retirement present for himself and had only one really solid year there.

Woody Hayes didn't drop off. He got fired in a rebuilding year after punching an opposing player. Using him in your data set is intellectually dishonest. Ohio State had been co-champions of the Big Ten the year before. He had won a share of that conference five years in a row before the '78 season.

Using Chris Ault is also being intellectually dishonest as the vast majority of his wins with Nevada came when they were still in the FCS (1976-1991). He coached them at the FBS level for three seasons before retiring the first time in 1995. In his second go around with Nevada (2004-2012), he had one season with 10 wins or more (the Colin Kaepernick season).

No arguments with Bo Schembechler and I would argue Hayden Fry never even had a peak despite his 200+ wins as a head coach. He consistently won between 7-9 games a year for the duration of his career. His drop off season happened to be his worst season as well as his last season. I wouldn't have included him in your data set. Waste of time and research.

As far as Steve Spurrier is concerned...I think we can all agree the dude just quit. He lost whatever competitive fire he once had and, like Lou Holtz, used South Carolina as a cushy retirement job. He had four really solid years towards the end of his tenure there, but everything else about his time at South Carolina was mediocre. I'd argue is true drop off year was 1999, that 2001 season notwithstanding.

I have no argument with Bill Snyder though I will say he was getting close to retirement in 2004. He only came back to coach Kansas State in 2009 because he was the AD and there was no there options at the time. His heart wasn't as into it the second go around.

I also disagree with Don Nehlan. The man was a lot like Hayden Fry in that he was just a consistent 6-9 win coach. He had two very good years in 1988 and 1993, but beyond that he just didn't suck which is why he kept his job for so many years. He career record was 202-128-8 so definitely not one of the greats. Just a coach who did just enough to keep his job.

And finally...no argument with Vince Dooley though I feel like if it wasn't for 1980-83, he wouldn't have made it to 1984 as the Georgia head coach. He got lucky toward the tail end of his career. He had been trending downward before the arrival of Herschel Walker.

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I disagree with your "drop off" year for Lou Holtz

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I tried to be most favorable with coaches so as not to be accused of being too harsh the other way. But yes Lou was probably before 2002. Still impressive what he did with South Carolina though with how bad they were when he got there though.

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Woody Hayes didn't drop off. He got fired in a rebuilding year after punching an opposing player. Using him in your data set is intellectually dishonest.

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No, it isn't. Every coach is unique in their circumstances, I wasn't around back then but he did take a dip his last year then was fired and never coached again.