History shows Nick Saban's time as an elite coach is almost (if not already) over

Nick Saban, while unquestionably one of the best college football coaches of all time, is starting to show the effects of age. Coaching is a young man's game after all, and the tremendous mental and physical demands running a top tier college football program take their toll on even the most resilient and determined men. As we begin to watch the Saban era move into history, it's natural to look back at those who have come before to see exactly how much time (if any) Coach Saban likely has left in the sun.

18 other men besides Saban have won 200 or more games at a Power 5 school (or historical equivalent), of those only 1 (Bobby Bowden) was able to extend their standard of success (very slightly) beyond the age of 70. I've taken the liberty of detailing those 18 coaches below. I'd be happy to discuss with any of you the circumstances around their demise, as if anything i've been pretty lenient in when to define the beginning of their decline.

A number of these coaches hung around well after their prime, some even had an isolated bounce back season or two before succumbing to the realities of life. Most notably, Joe Paterno stuck around as Penn State coach for an astounding seventeen years beyond his glory days. After managing to survive 4 losing seasons in 5 years, he served as a figurehead for a few Big Ten titles in the mid 2000's, letting his assistants handle the running of the program. All told, almost exactly half of his 137 losses at Penn State occurred during this period of his career.

Joe Paterno (Drop off began in 1995, at age 69)
Bobby Bowden (Drop off began in 2001, at age 71)
Bear Bryant (Drop off began in 1980, at age 67)
Pop Warner (Drop off began in 1928, at age 57)
Amos Alonzo Stagg (Drop off began in 1925, at age 63)
Frank Beamer (Drop off began in 2012, at age 66)
Lavell Edwards (Drop off began in 1996, at age 66)
Tom Osborne (Retired at age 60)
Mack Brown (Drop off began in 2010, at age 59)
Lou Holtz (Drop off begn in 2002, at age 65)
Woody Hayes (Drop off began in 1997, at age 64)
Chris Ault (Drop off began in 2011, at age 65)
Bo Schembechler (retired at age 60)
Hayden Fry (drop off began in 1997, at age 68)
Steve Spurrier (drop off began in 2014, at age 69)
Bill Snyder (drop off began in 2004, at age 65)
Don Nehlan (drop off began in 1999, at age 64)
Vince Dooley (drop off began in 1984, at age 52)

The research shows that the late 60's tends to be (at the latest) the area in which these historically great coaches tend to hit a wall. With the prospect of college football being moved to next Spring, it's possible Nick Saban may not coach another game until after his 69th birthday. From there, history shows the standard of success he has set in his career may have already passed into the night.