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re: FiveThirtyEight projects only one SEC team to make the CFB Playoff
Posted on 9/24/19 at 10:49 am to Smallpond
Posted on 9/24/19 at 10:49 am to Smallpond
Yep, but the Trump sycophants can't stand even the thought of criticism toward their dear leader so even something as inherently objective as statistical models based on polling data are labeled as left wing propaganda.
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Posted on 9/24/19 at 10:58 am to Bench McElroy
quote:
FiveThirtyEight projects only one SEC team to make the CFB Playoff
They also predicted Hillary Clinton to win the presidency by a landslide. So take FiveThirtyEight lightly
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:05 am to Bench McElroy
I'd be shocked if Clemson doesn't make the playoffs. They're the only team that's practically guaranteed a bid.
IDK if an 11-2 UGA would make the playoffs over 11-1 Notre Dame. ND's remaining schedule is bad, and there really is no reason why they shouldn't win out.
I'd have OU's playoff chances at least 50%. The Big 12 isn't bad, but it really doesn't have any good teams except for OU. It's easier to have a good record against a schedule that has a lot of #21-40ish type teams than it is to have a good record against a schedule that's a mix of top 10 teams and bad teams.
IDK if an 11-2 UGA would make the playoffs over 11-1 Notre Dame. ND's remaining schedule is bad, and there really is no reason why they shouldn't win out.
I'd have OU's playoff chances at least 50%. The Big 12 isn't bad, but it really doesn't have any good teams except for OU. It's easier to have a good record against a schedule that has a lot of #21-40ish type teams than it is to have a good record against a schedule that's a mix of top 10 teams and bad teams.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:14 am to Al Bundy Bulldog
quote:
They also predicted Hillary Clinton to win the presidency by a landslide. So take FiveThirtyEight lightly
That depends on your definition of landslide. If you consider winning the electoral college 302 to 235 (538's projection) to be a landslide, I would say your bar is really, really, really low. Reagan won 525 to 13 in 1984. THAT was a landslide. 302 to 235 is actually pretty close. It's so close that a few swings states flipping could swing the election, which is exactly what happened in 2016.
Then again, Trump claims he won in a landslide, so I guess barely winning by the skin of your teeth is a "landslide" these days.
This post was edited on 9/24/19 at 11:16 am
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:18 am to Bench McElroy
Biased Nate Silver also said that Trump had a less than 2% chance of winning the GOP nomination
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:21 am to SirWinston
quote:
Biased Nate Silver also said that Trump had a less than 2% chance of winning the GOP nomination
A few weeks ago the Milwaukee Brewers had a 3% chance of making the playoffs, now they're basically in thanks to their great month and the Cubs epic collapse. Sometimes the improbable thing happens. That doesn't mean it was wrong to call it improbable.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:22 am to Cheese Grits
quote:
If either get past Ohio State, maybe, but Penn State proved you can win the B1G and get passed over by Ohio State.
They lost 2 games though
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:30 am to Bench McElroy
The odds are good.
A 1 loss SEC non champ is not getting in over a 1 loss or undefeated B12 and B10 champ.. not gonna happen.
2017 OSU had 2 losses....
I’d be shocked, if a non champ got in over a PAC-12 1 loss champ as well... everybody forgets that 2018 UW and 2017 USC had multiple losses... 2016 UW got in with 1 loss..
The playoff committee has not left out a 1loss P5 champ who played in a CCG... yet!
A 1 loss SEC non champ is not getting in over a 1 loss or undefeated B12 and B10 champ.. not gonna happen.
2017 OSU had 2 losses....
I’d be shocked, if a non champ got in over a PAC-12 1 loss champ as well... everybody forgets that 2018 UW and 2017 USC had multiple losses... 2016 UW got in with 1 loss..
The playoff committee has not left out a 1loss P5 champ who played in a CCG... yet!
This post was edited on 9/24/19 at 11:32 am
Posted on 9/24/19 at 3:04 pm to auburnnyc94
quote:
This isn't how percentages work. It honestly is more accurate to read this as support for the probability that two SEC teams get in.
Don't forget that FOUR teams make the playoffs, so they get to add up to 400% (4 x 100%).
If you add up all the percentages for every SEC team shown, it come out to 129%, which means an expected value of 1.29 SEC team.
Put another way, that's a 29% chance of 2 SEC teams and a 71% chance of 1 SEC team.
This post was edited on 9/24/19 at 3:15 pm
Posted on 9/24/19 at 3:25 pm to Bench McElroy
If you go to the 538 link and sort by conference, and then add up the percentages for every team listed in the conference, you can get what they think the chance of each conference making the playoff.
SEC 129% (29% chance of 2 teams, 71% chance of 1 team)
Big-10 83%
ACC 83%
Big-12 56%
Pac-12 25%
Notre Dame 12%
These don't add up to 400% because of rounding error and unknown values for the less than 1% teams.
These chances sounds about right. As the season goes on, the percentages for the top 3 or 4 conferences will go up, and the rest down.
SEC 129% (29% chance of 2 teams, 71% chance of 1 team)
Big-10 83%
ACC 83%
Big-12 56%
Pac-12 25%
Notre Dame 12%
These don't add up to 400% because of rounding error and unknown values for the less than 1% teams.
These chances sounds about right. As the season goes on, the percentages for the top 3 or 4 conferences will go up, and the rest down.
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