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FEI SEC Teams Strength of Schedule Rankings
Posted on 10/26/21 at 10:51 am
Posted on 10/26/21 at 10:51 am
FEI has 3 different SOS rankings that take into account the kind of stuff we all discuss a lot about how there are different ways to view a schedule. Is a schedule with 6 teams that go 8-4 harder than one with 2 teams that go 10-2 and a bunch of 4 win teams?
FEI's schedule differences take that into account. ELS (elite) is basically "how many losses would an elite team have against this schedule". GLS (good) is basically "how many losses would a good team have against this schedule"? ALS (average) is basically "how many losses would an average team have against this schedule"?
ELS is the best metric to use when talking about things like the playoff, IMHO.
FEI - SoS
ELS (avg # of losses an elite team would have vs schedule)
1. Arkansas (1.80)
3. Tennessee (1.58)
4. South Carolina (1.56)
5. LSU (1.48)
7. Auburn (1.38)
9. Alabama (1.35)
11. Ole Miss (1.30)
12. Vanderbilt (1.29)
16. Florida (1.23)
18. Kentucky (1.18)
19. Mississippi State (1.17)
23. Oregon (1.12)
40. Texas A&M (0.91)
46. Iowa (0.84)
47. Georgia (0.84)
61. Oklahoma (0.79)
64. Wake Forest (3.37)
69. Michigan (0.74)
73. Missouri (0.68)
75. Wake Forest (0.67)
80. Pitt (0.65)
90. Ohio State (0.55)
92. Cincinnati (0.54)
102. Michigan State (0.49)
126. SMU (0.24)
ALS (avg # of losses an average team would have vs schedule)
1. LSU (4.91)
6. Alabama (4.51)
8. Arkansas (4.42)
13. Tennessee (4.17)
15. South Carolina (4.12)
20. Florida (4.02)
22. Mississippi State (3.97)
25. Vanderbilt (3.93)
28. Ole Miss (3.87)
36. Georgia (3.73)
41. Iowa (3.63)
43. Auburn (3.62)
44. Oklahoma (3.57)
46. Texas A&M (3.57)
47. Michigan (3.55)
56. Oregon (3.46)
69. Michigan State (3.27)
71. Kentucky (3.23)
81. Pitt (3.10)
87. Missouri (3.00)
77. Ohio State (3.19)
100. Cincinnati (2.73)
125. SMU (2.01)
FEI's schedule differences take that into account. ELS (elite) is basically "how many losses would an elite team have against this schedule". GLS (good) is basically "how many losses would a good team have against this schedule"? ALS (average) is basically "how many losses would an average team have against this schedule"?
quote:
Strength of schedule ratings represent the expected number of losses an elite team two standard deviations better than average would have against the each team's schedule to date (ELS), the expected number of losses a good team one standard deviation above average would have against the schedule to date (GLS), and the expected number of losses an average team would have against the schedule to date (ALS). Preseason projected ratings are progressively phased out over the course of the season.
ELS is the best metric to use when talking about things like the playoff, IMHO.
FEI - SoS
ELS (avg # of losses an elite team would have vs schedule)
1. Arkansas (1.80)
3. Tennessee (1.58)
4. South Carolina (1.56)
5. LSU (1.48)
7. Auburn (1.38)
9. Alabama (1.35)
11. Ole Miss (1.30)
12. Vanderbilt (1.29)
16. Florida (1.23)
18. Kentucky (1.18)
19. Mississippi State (1.17)
23. Oregon (1.12)
40. Texas A&M (0.91)
46. Iowa (0.84)
47. Georgia (0.84)
61. Oklahoma (0.79)
64. Wake Forest (3.37)
69. Michigan (0.74)
73. Missouri (0.68)
75. Wake Forest (0.67)
80. Pitt (0.65)
90. Ohio State (0.55)
92. Cincinnati (0.54)
102. Michigan State (0.49)
126. SMU (0.24)
ALS (avg # of losses an average team would have vs schedule)
1. LSU (4.91)
6. Alabama (4.51)
8. Arkansas (4.42)
13. Tennessee (4.17)
15. South Carolina (4.12)
20. Florida (4.02)
22. Mississippi State (3.97)
25. Vanderbilt (3.93)
28. Ole Miss (3.87)
36. Georgia (3.73)
41. Iowa (3.63)
43. Auburn (3.62)
44. Oklahoma (3.57)
46. Texas A&M (3.57)
47. Michigan (3.55)
56. Oregon (3.46)
69. Michigan State (3.27)
71. Kentucky (3.23)
81. Pitt (3.10)
87. Missouri (3.00)
77. Ohio State (3.19)
100. Cincinnati (2.73)
125. SMU (2.01)
This post was edited on 10/26/21 at 10:56 am
9
Posted on 10/26/21 at 10:55 am to SummerOfGeorge
Damn Cincy
Posted on 10/26/21 at 10:59 am to JesusHasAMacTat
quote:
Damn Cincy
To Date (FEI)
#11 Notre Dame
#57 UCF
#74 Indiana
#87 Miami (OH)
#94 Navy
#120 Temple
N/A Austin Peay (1AA)
N/A Murray State (1AA)
Left
#52 SMU
#79 East Carolina
#99 Tulane
#101 South Florida
This post was edited on 10/26/21 at 11:01 am
Posted on 10/26/21 at 11:01 am to SummerOfGeorge
I mean… putting them in the playoff would be a bad look. They should not give a Notre Dame win any credit these days.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 11:02 am to SummerOfGeorge
So if Arkansas goes 3-1 over the next 4 to finish 8-4 that means we're a good team. Am I reading that right? I'll take it after the last 5 years
Posted on 10/26/21 at 11:03 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
SOS
quote:
1. Arkansas
As is their birthright
Posted on 10/26/21 at 11:13 am to Pig Soiee
quote:
So if Arkansas goes 3-1 over the next 4 to finish 8-4 that means we're a good team
These are as of now - so basically what it is saying is
Arkansas as of today
- an elite team would on average have 1.8 losses
- a good team would on average have 3.1 losses
- an average team would on average have 4.4 losses
So, Arkansas is currently sitting at 5-3. They've performed to date as a "good" team.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 11:18 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
1. Arkansas (1.80)
Currently 5-3
quote:
73. Missouri (0.68)
Currently 3-4
I’d have to imagine Pittman would be 6-1 or 7-0 with that soft schedule. It must be nice to be in the East.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 11:20 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
1. LSU (4.91)
wow, so we're average and not terrible
Posted on 10/26/21 at 11:25 am to JesusHasAMacTat
quote:
I mean… putting them in the playoff would be a bad look. They should not give a Notre Dame win any credit these days.
If ND is at least 10-2 which should put them around the top 10 that will be enough to get Cincy in if things fall in place as the committee would be basically saying even if you schedule a tough team we aren't going to put you in even undefeated.
Cincy probably would still need Oregon to lose another game to get in and for Georgia if undefeated not to lose the SECCG.
This post was edited on 10/26/21 at 11:27 am
Posted on 10/26/21 at 11:33 am to lsufball19
quote:
wow, so we're average and not terrible
Which makes sense in terms of wins and losses.
Losses to average/good teams (UCLA, Auburn, Kentucky, Ole Miss).
Wins over all average/bad teams (mid majors, State).
1 Win over a good team (Florida).
Posted on 10/26/21 at 11:35 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
These are as of now
Huh.
If what you are saying is true, then from #4 on your list to #92... an elite team would only have 1 loss with that schedule?
Posted on 10/26/21 at 11:39 am to meansonny
quote:
If what you are saying is true, then from #4 on your list to #92... an elite team would only have 1 loss with that schedule?
For ELS, the average # of losses drops below 1.00 at #30
For them, the definition of an elite team = a team two standard deviations better than average.
This post was edited on 10/26/21 at 11:40 am
Posted on 10/26/21 at 11:40 am to SummerOfGeorge
I guess i was using basic rounding math. 0.5 rounds up. 1.49 rounds down.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 11:41 am to meansonny
quote:
I guess i was using basic rounding math. 0.5 rounds up. 1.49 rounds down.
Got ya - yea, I think what it shows is it's really hard to remain undefeated through 7-8 games regardless of schedule.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 11:42 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
So, Arkansas is currently sitting at 5-3. They've performed to date as a "good" team.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 11:49 am to SummerOfGeorge
It's a nice SOS rating system, but it's hard to take the source rankings seriously when they have Florida, Texas, and Iowa St ranked 6, 7, 8.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:24 pm to TheCheshireHog
I’m just hoping for the love of all that is just and right that Arkansas can beat Missouri this year.
It beyond ridiculous to have a 5 game losing streak to them.
It beyond ridiculous to have a 5 game losing streak to them.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:27 pm to RoscoeHarper
quote:
it's hard to take the source rankings seriously when they have Florida, Texas, and Iowa St ranked 6, 7, 8.
Agree - like most of these (FEI, SP+, etc), they are good at off/def breakouts but the overall always feels a little meh.
Posted on 10/26/21 at 12:42 pm to SummerOfGeorge
We are above average 
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