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ESPN Bracketology 2/1
Posted on 2/1/16 at 11:49 am
Posted on 2/1/16 at 11:49 am
Updated this morning...
Texas A&M (2)
Kentucky (5)
Florida (8)
South Carolina (9)
LSU (10)
First Four Out:
Vanderbilt
A lot of things jump out here. Most sites have LSU on the outside looking in, right now. However, Lunardi has LSU in as one of his "Last Four Bye" teams. Pretty interesting. That may be optimistic on his part, but he is usually very close to nailing the field most years, and I'm sure he has some inside information as to what the committee is looking at this year. It definitely seems like LSU is in right now simply because of the eye test, and how the team has looked in games against Kentucky and Oklahoma. The résumé certainly isn't good enough yet.
aTm is sitting pretty. I think it might be a little silly to have aTm on the two line right now over, say, a team like Maryland. But either way, aTm looks in good shape to grab a top 4 seed at the worst.
Kentucky seems to really be playing some good ball right now. Honestly, it won't surprise me if they win the conference. With their out-of-conference schedule, they should finish with a top 4 seed, as well.
Florida and South Carolina are interesting. Florida finally got a big marquee OOC win. Their strength of schedule is strong, and that's what has them over South Carolina, despite a much worse record. Despite a 19-2 record, South Carolina is sitting as a 9 seed. According to ESPN's BPI, their best win is over Clemson (6-3 in the ACC), but they still have some big games at home coming up to strengthen their résumé.
The fact that Vanderbilt is squarely on the bubble despite a 12-9 record and not a single good OOC win really just shows you how weak the bubble is this year. Huge, HUGE game coming up for the Commodores at home against aTm this Thursday. A win could bump them into the field.
Texas A&M (2)
Kentucky (5)
Florida (8)
South Carolina (9)
LSU (10)
First Four Out:
Vanderbilt
A lot of things jump out here. Most sites have LSU on the outside looking in, right now. However, Lunardi has LSU in as one of his "Last Four Bye" teams. Pretty interesting. That may be optimistic on his part, but he is usually very close to nailing the field most years, and I'm sure he has some inside information as to what the committee is looking at this year. It definitely seems like LSU is in right now simply because of the eye test, and how the team has looked in games against Kentucky and Oklahoma. The résumé certainly isn't good enough yet.
aTm is sitting pretty. I think it might be a little silly to have aTm on the two line right now over, say, a team like Maryland. But either way, aTm looks in good shape to grab a top 4 seed at the worst.
Kentucky seems to really be playing some good ball right now. Honestly, it won't surprise me if they win the conference. With their out-of-conference schedule, they should finish with a top 4 seed, as well.
Florida and South Carolina are interesting. Florida finally got a big marquee OOC win. Their strength of schedule is strong, and that's what has them over South Carolina, despite a much worse record. Despite a 19-2 record, South Carolina is sitting as a 9 seed. According to ESPN's BPI, their best win is over Clemson (6-3 in the ACC), but they still have some big games at home coming up to strengthen their résumé.
The fact that Vanderbilt is squarely on the bubble despite a 12-9 record and not a single good OOC win really just shows you how weak the bubble is this year. Huge, HUGE game coming up for the Commodores at home against aTm this Thursday. A win could bump them into the field.
This post was edited on 2/1/16 at 11:52 am
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Posted on 2/1/16 at 11:52 am to BayouBengals03
quote:
According to ESPN's BPI, their best win is over Clemson (6-3 in the ACC), but they still have some big games at home coming up to strengthen their résumé.
Interestingly, Lunardi tweeted last week that a 10-8 SEC record will do for SC if we can get at least one win over @A&M, LSU, or UK. I think that record would put 23-6 right? If we can't get at least one of those we'll probably have to get to at least 25. Despite the weak OOC, I doubt the committee leaves a P5 team out with 25 wins.
Posted on 2/1/16 at 11:54 am to theGarnetWay
I think 11-7 will be fine for South Carolina, unless maybe they strike out against aTm, UK, LSU, and Florida.
The SEC Tournament could be very interesting for South Carolina, LSU, and Vanderbilt.
The SEC Tournament could be very interesting for South Carolina, LSU, and Vanderbilt.
Posted on 2/1/16 at 11:55 am to theGarnetWay
quote:
Interestingly, Lunardi tweeted last week that a 10-8 SEC record will do for SC if we can get at least one win over @A&M, LSU, or UK. I think that record would put 23-6 right?
That would pull y'all at 23-8.
That would be close, I'd imagine. Would depend on who you beat, and also how you do in the SEC Tournament.
I really don't see SCAR finishing 10-8 in conference, though. I think 11-7 is the worst-case scenario unless y'all just tank.
This post was edited on 2/1/16 at 11:56 am
Posted on 2/1/16 at 11:56 am to BayouBengals03
Ugh VCU then UNC on the first weekend?
Yikes
Yikes
Posted on 2/1/16 at 12:05 pm to BayouBengals03
Brooklyn not a bad spot, big following in the NYC area for former Alumni. Would rather play in Raleigh though.
This post was edited on 2/1/16 at 12:07 pm
Posted on 2/1/16 at 12:11 pm to BayouBengals03
Crazy how 4-5 SEC teams get in for basketball.
If it were baseball/football we would have 8-10 in a tournament of 64.
I guess the SEC's most realistic chances of winning the whole thing likely will run through aTm. Going to be weird rooting for the aggys in March/April.
If it were baseball/football we would have 8-10 in a tournament of 64.
I guess the SEC's most realistic chances of winning the whole thing likely will run through aTm. Going to be weird rooting for the aggys in March/April.
Posted on 2/1/16 at 12:12 pm to BIWO
I think Kentucky has the best chance to win it all, just because I think they have the highest ceiling.
Realistically, none of the SEC teams are winning it all. Final Four would be a huge stretch.
Realistically, none of the SEC teams are winning it all. Final Four would be a huge stretch.
Posted on 2/1/16 at 12:12 pm to CayceCock13
I mean, after 12 years I'd be happy with any spot but an 8 or 9 would be unfortunate. Even if we can get a win we'd have to play a 1 seed afterwards. Very small chance of any kind of push in the tournament.
Posted on 2/1/16 at 12:14 pm to BayouBengals03
LOL lsu is out as of today
Posted on 2/1/16 at 12:15 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:
That would pull y'all at 23-8.
Let's just take a worst case scenario for South Carolina
Finish this way
@ UGA - L
vs A&M - L
vs LSU - W
vs UK - L
@ Mizzou - W
vs Fla - W
vs TN - W
@ Miss St - W
vs UGA - W
@ Arky - L
1st round vs Bama - L
Finish 24-7, RPI Wizard says RPI 44.
I'd guess that would be good enough for a 9 or 10 seed.
Posted on 2/1/16 at 12:16 pm to BayouBengals03
Who cares about the NCAA tourney, it's more about the CBI or possibly NIT. Right guys? RIGHT??
This post was edited on 2/1/16 at 12:17 pm
Posted on 2/1/16 at 12:17 pm to OnlyGatorsSurvive
quote:
LOL lsu is out as of today
quote:
FLORIDA- The REAL DBU
I see you think about LSU on a daily basis
Posted on 2/1/16 at 12:17 pm to Cheeky Fellow
Worst-case for SCAR is 24-8, I think.
Posted on 2/1/16 at 12:18 pm to OnlyGatorsSurvive
Apparently not.
Posted on 2/1/16 at 12:19 pm to BayouBengals03
I agree, Kentucky clearly is still the sec's best final 4 shot.
Posted on 2/1/16 at 12:37 pm to Cheeky Fellow
quote:
vs A&M - L
game is in college station.
Posted on 2/1/16 at 12:52 pm to BayouBengals03
Lunardi doesn't have inside info. He's been solid the past few years but prior to that he was about as mediocre as it gets.
I'm sure he's looking at all these resumes as the unfinished products that they are and is assuming that LSU's RPI will be higher in a month.
Yes, the bar RPI-wise is likely lower for LSU than for most bubble teams, and if you get it into the 60-range, you'll probably be fine. But if you're doing bracketology as an "if the season ended today" exercise, LSU shouldn't be included.
I'm sure he's looking at all these resumes as the unfinished products that they are and is assuming that LSU's RPI will be higher in a month.
Yes, the bar RPI-wise is likely lower for LSU than for most bubble teams, and if you get it into the 60-range, you'll probably be fine. But if you're doing bracketology as an "if the season ended today" exercise, LSU shouldn't be included.
Posted on 2/1/16 at 12:55 pm to GatorsGators
quote:
But if you're doing bracketology as an "if the season ended today" exercise, LSU shouldn't be included.
I'm pretty sure that's what he's doing.
Again, he has Vandy on the bubble despite a 12-9 record and not a single good OOC win. The bubble is terrible.
RPI isn't everything, and I think people forget that.
This post was edited on 2/1/16 at 12:55 pm
Posted on 2/1/16 at 1:07 pm to BayouBengals03
Vandy's wins over Stony Brook and Wake Forest are better than any non-conference win LSU has.
Also, while Vandy has a lot of losses, none are "bad." They're all to Top 100 teams. 6 are to Top 25 teams. And of those 6 losses, 5 were away/neutral site games.
I think Vandy has a better pure resume right now than LSU. Again, RPI isn't everything -- the committee will try to turn as much of a blind eye to LSU's non-conference performance as it can.
But no team has ever gotten an at-large bid with an RPI in the 80s. LSU wouldn't be the first.
Also, while Vandy has a lot of losses, none are "bad." They're all to Top 100 teams. 6 are to Top 25 teams. And of those 6 losses, 5 were away/neutral site games.
I think Vandy has a better pure resume right now than LSU. Again, RPI isn't everything -- the committee will try to turn as much of a blind eye to LSU's non-conference performance as it can.
But no team has ever gotten an at-large bid with an RPI in the 80s. LSU wouldn't be the first.
This post was edited on 2/1/16 at 1:08 pm
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