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Do the handicappers have it right?
Posted on 6/6/11 at 7:47 pm
Posted on 6/6/11 at 7:47 pm
Professional handicappers create an expectation for the outcome of a game and weight it to make betting on the game a fair proposition for bettors on both sides. I pay close attention to the handicappers lines on SEC games - and have been doing so for 20+ years. Over the long term they've proven to be extremely accurate at determining the outcome of individual games and longer term predictions for full seasons.
If you consider the "line" to be a fair prediction for the outcome of a game then it should also be considered a fair indicator of the success or failure of a teams season. The handicappers in Vegas think Auburn will be the underdog in as many as 8 games this year. They think Alabama will be favored in all of their regular season games. LSU will be favored in all but two of their regular season games - Oregon is currently a pick em and they're a dog to Alabama. UGA is predicted to be favored in all of their games but one. In my game by game prediction threads I used subscription preseason handicapping services from Vegas and offshore odds makers. It's been invaluable to me over the years. The only bias in sports handicapping is the weight added for irrational fans unreasonable expectations.
These are the handicappers predictions for the 4 teams that will determine the winner of the SEC. DO you agree with them?
Alabama favored in all 12 regular season games.
Georgia favored in all of their regular season games but 1 - they're the dog to South Carolina.
LSU is favored in all regular season games but 2 -Oregon (pick em) and they're a dog to Alabama.
South Carolina is favored in all regular season games but 1 - they're the dog to Arkansas.
If you consider the "line" to be a fair prediction for the outcome of a game then it should also be considered a fair indicator of the success or failure of a teams season. The handicappers in Vegas think Auburn will be the underdog in as many as 8 games this year. They think Alabama will be favored in all of their regular season games. LSU will be favored in all but two of their regular season games - Oregon is currently a pick em and they're a dog to Alabama. UGA is predicted to be favored in all of their games but one. In my game by game prediction threads I used subscription preseason handicapping services from Vegas and offshore odds makers. It's been invaluable to me over the years. The only bias in sports handicapping is the weight added for irrational fans unreasonable expectations.
These are the handicappers predictions for the 4 teams that will determine the winner of the SEC. DO you agree with them?
Alabama favored in all 12 regular season games.
Georgia favored in all of their regular season games but 1 - they're the dog to South Carolina.
LSU is favored in all regular season games but 2 -Oregon (pick em) and they're a dog to Alabama.
South Carolina is favored in all regular season games but 1 - they're the dog to Arkansas.
This post was edited on 6/6/11 at 7:52 pm
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Posted on 6/6/11 at 7:50 pm to ketchupmoney
Auburn was a 500:1 pick to win the National Championship last year
So YES. Handicapping is dead nuts.
So YES. Handicapping is dead nuts.
Posted on 6/6/11 at 7:51 pm to ketchupmoney
didn't read...lol
Posted on 6/6/11 at 7:53 pm to LanierSpots
quote:
Auburn was a 500:1 pick to win the National Championship last year
Bama was the fav in 09, UF in 08, LSU in 07
They're not always right, obviously, but they're far from nuts
Posted on 6/6/11 at 7:53 pm to ketchupmoney
What do the Arky lines look like right now? Thanks in advance.
Posted on 6/6/11 at 7:54 pm to HogKing111
I'm guessing favored in 10 of 12...both of those games I'm guessing we're 1.5 to 3 pt dog
Posted on 6/6/11 at 7:55 pm to ketchupmoney
Yea didn't read that novel but why would UGA be favored in all of them but south Carolina at home?
Posted on 6/6/11 at 7:58 pm to HogKing111
quote:They're dogs to Alabama and LSU. There's no current bettable line for the A&M game although I did see a Pick em for about an hour. I think Arkansas will be favored over A&M by 2 or 3.
What do the Arky lines look like right now? Thanks in advance.
This post was edited on 6/6/11 at 8:00 pm
Posted on 6/6/11 at 8:27 pm to ketchupmoney
quote:
I think Arkansas will be favored over A&M by 2 or 3.
Hmmm... A&M has been getting more love than Arky in most preseason rankings, but they aren't favored in Dallas? Sounds about right.
Posted on 6/6/11 at 8:57 pm to Damn Good Dawg
quote:
Yea didn't read that novel but why would UGA be favored in all of them but south Carolina at home?
Georgia always gets the nod early in the season.
Those lines will move by game time.
Sorry brah.
Posted on 6/6/11 at 9:14 pm to ketchupmoney
quote:
The only bias in sports handicapping is the weight added for irrational fans unreasonable expectations.
quote:
They think Alabama will be favored in all of their regular season games.
Posted on 6/6/11 at 9:15 pm to LanierSpots
quote:
Georgia always gets the nod early in the season.
Those lines will move by game time.
Sorry brah.
oh as a dawg i know. i even started a thread a while back about how UGA is always overrated by these fools
no need to be sorry
Posted on 6/6/11 at 9:37 pm to jso0003
quote:
quote:
The only bias in sports handicapping is the weight added for irrational fans unreasonable expectations.
quote:
They think Alabama will be favored in all of their regular season games.
I agree with you jso0003. Most of the time local bookmakers take advantage of homers. Betting on Alabama in Alabama is ridiculous becuase all the local bookmakers fudge the line against Alabama because of all the irrational Bama homers.
eta - If I wanted to bet against Alabama I would get the best line for that bet from local bookmakers in Alabama.
This post was edited on 6/6/11 at 9:41 pm
Posted on 6/7/11 at 10:22 am to ketchupmoney
Lines arent intended to be a "predictor" nor are they made to make betting "fair on both sides". That's laughable really.
Lines have one purpose and one purpose only; to get equal money laid on both sides. You'd think someone who's been paying attn to them for 20 years would be aware of this fact.
Lines have one purpose and one purpose only; to get equal money laid on both sides. You'd think someone who's been paying attn to them for 20 years would be aware of this fact.
Posted on 6/7/11 at 10:24 am to Topan
quote:
Lines arent intended to be a "predictor" nor are they made to make betting "fair on both sides". That's laughable really.
Lines have one purpose and one purpose only; to get equal money laid on both sides. You'd think someone who's been paying attn to them for 20 years would be aware of this fact.
True - BUT the result of that process is a fair gamble for bettors on both sides - the most fair predictor of the games outcome ever devised by man or computer.
This post was edited on 6/7/11 at 10:26 am
Posted on 6/7/11 at 10:35 am to ketchupmoney
quote:
True - BUT the result of that process is a fair gamble for bettors on both sides - the most fair predictor of the games outcome ever devised by man or computer.
Not really. Retrospectively some lines turn out to be accurate predictors, others are far from it. They're set according to public perception and adjusted according to which side is getting the most action. It's as simple as that.
But if you wanna think of them as "fair predictors" then by all means, be my guest.
This post was edited on 6/7/11 at 10:37 am
Posted on 6/7/11 at 10:37 am to ketchupmoney
It is not the handicappers that "get it right". It is Power Analysis.
If you get a LARGE sample size, the average will be very nearly the correct answer.
This is why the line MOVES. The handicapper is guessing where the public will be at first...then, as the bets come in, he changes the line to account for it.
So, he is not guessing the score of the game. He is guessing the thoughts of the betting public.
So, the final "line" may indeed be very close. But, that is a function of a huge sample size (bettors on sporting events)
If you get a LARGE sample size, the average will be very nearly the correct answer.
This is why the line MOVES. The handicapper is guessing where the public will be at first...then, as the bets come in, he changes the line to account for it.
So, he is not guessing the score of the game. He is guessing the thoughts of the betting public.
So, the final "line" may indeed be very close. But, that is a function of a huge sample size (bettors on sporting events)
Posted on 6/7/11 at 2:52 pm to ketchupmoney
"The line" is designed and adjusted as betting occurs to try and equalize the amounts wagered on each team. And the bookie collects the vig. So you bet 50 team A and I bet 50 team B. You lose and pay the bookie 55. He gives me 50 and pockets 5.
Posted on 6/7/11 at 2:56 pm to ljhog
quote:
Lines arent intended to be a "predictor" nor are they made to make betting "fair on both sides". That's laughable really. Lines have one purpose and one purpose only; to get equal money laid on both sides. You'd think someone who's been paying attn to them for 20 years would be aware of this fact.
This. I continue to be amazed at how many people don't understand this.
Vegas' whole goal is to make 10% of all the money gambled. As long as there is even money on both sides they don't give a shite.
Posted on 6/7/11 at 2:57 pm to LanierSpots
quote:
Auburn was a 500:1 pick to win the National Championship last year
I doubt anyone expected your JUCO QB to win the heisman either.
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