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re: Did we really get beat that bad?
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:05 pm to Zanzibaw
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:05 pm to Zanzibaw
It does not make judgement about "bigger success" in the big picture, since its only measured inside one game with only one team vs another team.
If you play UMass, for example, you should have a greater net success probably than if you play Ohio State and have the biggest win of the weekend.
If you play UMass, for example, you should have a greater net success probably than if you play Ohio State and have the biggest win of the weekend.
This post was edited on 10/14/24 at 12:08 pm
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Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:05 pm to supersaints9
quote:
Why is it interesting?
Because it is an inversion of the normal correlation between having a higher success rate than your opponent and winning the game.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:12 pm to 3down10
quote:
Well, Ole Miss did blow the game.
Serious question, why do people keep saying this?
Live, it was fairly sloppy on both sides.
This post was edited on 10/14/24 at 12:13 pm
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:13 pm to SidewalkTiger
quote:
why do people keep saying this?
A lot of people think that Ole Miss looked like the better team, despite losing.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:16 pm to Hugh McElroy
quote:
Because it is an inversion of the normal correlation between having a higher success rate than your opponent and winning the game.
Based on some overweight redneck from Alabamas opinion? Lsu has gotten better defensively every week. If you think that Lsu is some scrub team because they lost the first game of the season then so be it. This season has proven that ANY team can be beat on any given Saturday. Texas is excluded because they haven’t played anyone YET. That changes starting this week. I could see Texas losing 2 out of the next 4. It all shakes out in the end.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:16 pm to Hugh McElroy
quote:
A lot of people think that Ole Miss looked like the better team, despite losing.
I don't disagree with you, I do think it's kind of a false narrative that was built around the dropped pass on the first drive though.
The rest of the game was fairly even.
It isn't like Ole Miss played a slopfest and LSU played out of their minds.
ETA - Ole Miss was penalized a lot, I guess I could understand if the stance is that Ole Miss killed themselves with penalties although I don't remember a lot of game changing type calls.
This post was edited on 10/14/24 at 12:20 pm
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:21 pm to JJxvi
Florida & TN pretty even.
Texas didn't outplay OU by all that much and still blew out OU. That passes the eyeball test.
Let Quinn be rust-free and have UT play a full 4 quarters and it can get scary.
Texas didn't outplay OU by all that much and still blew out OU. That passes the eyeball test.
Let Quinn be rust-free and have UT play a full 4 quarters and it can get scary.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:22 pm to SidewalkTiger
quote:
Serious question, why do people keep saying this?
Live, it was fairly sloppy on both sides.
Because they left a lot of points on the field and looked like the better team outside the scoreboard. That's also what the chart in the OP is showing.
That's football. You don't get points for driving 60 yards if you miss the FG, but everyone still saw the ball being moved etc.
No reason to be upset, it's a still a good win for LSU.
This post was edited on 10/14/24 at 12:23 pm
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:26 pm to 3down10
The graph is very comforting
It says Texass barely beat us, and we are better than Tennesse and way better than LSU..
We should use this graph instead of the traditional scores and TDs and FGs…..
It says Texass barely beat us, and we are better than Tennesse and way better than LSU..
We should use this graph instead of the traditional scores and TDs and FGs…..
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:27 pm to 3down10
quote:
Because they left a lot of points on the field and looked like the better team outside the scoreboard. That's also what the chart in the OP is showing.
That's football. You don't get points for driving 60 yards if you miss the FG, but everyone still saw the ball being moved etc.
No reason to be upset, it's a still a good win for LSU.
Both teams missed a field goal and both teams failed to convert a 4th down in the opponents territory. Both teams had 2 turnovers.
Seems like they both left a lot of points on the field.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:31 pm to SidewalkTiger
quote:
It isn't like Ole Miss played a slopfest and LSU played out of their minds.
When you think about success rates, think about how the game went. LSU had to convert a number of 3rd and longs and 4th and longs either through big plays or Ole Miss penalties. That means that Ole Miss was very successful on 1st and 2nd down more than they weren't (or inversely, LSU was not successful). Ole Miss had a higher yards per pass, yards per carry, yards per play, and won the TOP and had a fairly significant total yards lead until the 4th quarter game tying drive.
Ole Miss doubled LSU up in penalties and a number of them were called at critical moments. You mentioned the dropped touchdown by the guy that may win the Biletnikoff. Ole Miss also gifted LSU 3 points right before the half with a dumb fumble on our own 30. I'm not trying to take credit away from LSU as they did what they needed to win but Ole Miss was better in just about every measurable category over the course of 60 minutes and lost. And that's what this chart is about.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:32 pm to SidewalkTiger
quote:
Both teams missed a field goal and both teams failed to convert a 4th down in the opponents territory. Both teams had 2 turnovers.
Seems like they both left a lot of points on the field.
I guess the success rates laid out in the OP are wrong, and I didn't see what I saw because it makes the LSU fan unhappy.
You won and did what you needed to do to win, stop crying.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:36 pm to 3down10
quote:
I guess the success rates laid out in the OP are wrong, and I didn't see what I saw because it makes the LSU fan unhappy.
You won and did what you needed to do to win, stop crying.
Football discussion =/= "crying"
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:38 pm to SidewalkTiger
quote:
Football discussion =/= "crying"
Ok, stop getting twisted over stats that don't have anything to do with the scoreboard in a game you won. Of which should sting the team that lost a hell of a lot more.
Better?
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:45 pm to Zanzibaw
quote:
So this graph wants me to believe that Alabamas struggle win over SC at home was a bigger success than: LSU beating a top 10 OM team Vandy beating UK on the road Texas blowing out OU in a rivalry game Not to mention that a lackluster UGA win was the second most successful win of the week?
No that is not what this graph shows and I don’t think you could have mischaracterized what this data represents anymore if you tried.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:49 pm to elposter
quote:
No that is not what this graph shows and I don’t think you could have mischaracterized what this data represents anymore if you tried.
I was gonna chime in but it truly isn't worth it. People want to consume the sport the way they want to consume it.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:53 pm to Hugh McElroy
LSU showed resiliency, but the truth were also extremely fortunate to end up winning that game. Ole MIss looked like the better team and in control pretty much the entire game. They have to be kicking themselves and had plenty of chances to put the game away. Kind of what happened to LSU vs USC.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 12:56 pm to Hugh McElroy
It's actually pretty interesting when you go on twitter and see it much larger.
Posted on 10/14/24 at 1:14 pm to Zgeo
quote:
The graph is very comforting
It says Texass barely beat us, and we are better than Tennesse and way better than LSU..
Oh my God. It says none of those things.
A close net success rate does not necessarily mean a game wasn't a blowout, but it does mean that a relatively small number of plays were the primary factor in the blowout, as opposed to a constant stream of successful plays.
This post was edited on 10/14/24 at 1:21 pm
Posted on 10/14/24 at 1:25 pm to SidewalkTiger
quote:
I do think it's kind of a false narrative that was built around the dropped pass on the first drive though.
Perhaps it was also built around the empirical fact that Ole Miss had a higher percentage of successful offensive plays than LSU, by this guy's factors in determining whether a play was successful or not.
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