re: Conference Finish Calculator

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eorgia wins the first tiebreaker (head-to-head), so they're in. Their opponent is a whole lot trickier...

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In your example it would likely be Georgia and Texas, but it would depend on LSU's loss.

If LSU lost to A&M, Texas would be in.
If LSU lost to Oklahoma, Texas would be in.
If LSU lost to Florida, Texas would be in.
If LSU lost to Vanderbilt, Texas would be in.

Why? Because Texas would have beaten all those teams.

If LSU lost to Alabama, LSU is probably in.

Why? Because LSU would probably have a higher cumulative winning %..

It would come down to these 6 teams.

Georgia, Miss State and Kentucky vs Alabama, Ole Miss & S. Carolina

If Ole Miss players quit to focus on the draft because their season was over.. and Ole Miss shite the bed.. and Miss State started winning games, perhaps it would switch.

Crazy stuff ahead.

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Now I'm second guessing whether head-to-head would even apply if all the teams didn't play each other. This stuff will make your head hurt.

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100% which is why a calculator like this is pretty cool imo. Too many variables to truly know what will happen now, but as each week happens, all games will be important and a handful of games will be really important.

It could be pretty entertaining.. or really, really fricking frustrating..

Then again, any teams alive only have themselves to blame if they lose.. or have lost previously.

That conference calculator uses opponent's win percentage as the tiebreaker. Per that, if LSU wins out, Georgia wins out, and A&M loses to LSU but wins out, it would be an LSU vs A&M rematch in the SECCG. Is that right?

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That conference calculator uses opponent's win percentage as the tiebreaker. Per that, if LSU wins out, Georgia wins out, and A&M loses to LSU but wins out, it would be an LSU vs A&M rematch in the SECCG. Is that right?

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1. LSU (7 - 1) Above Georgia and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688).
2. Georgia (7 - 1) With Texas A&M, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375). Above Texas A&M based on Capped Relative Scoring Margin (not actual placement: you must check yourself).
3. Texas A&M (7 - 1) With Georgia, below LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4375). Below Georgia based on Capped Relative Scoring Margin (not actual placement: you must check yourself).
4. Alabama (6 - 2) Above Tennessee and Texas based on winning percentage against #1 teams all played one time (1-0).
5. Texas (6 - 2) With Tennessee, below Alabama based on winning percentage against #1 teams all played one time (0-1). Above Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (6-1).
6. Tennessee (6 - 2) With Texas, below Alabama based on winning percentage against #1 teams all played one time (0-1). Below Texas based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (5-2).

It would depend on the other matchups, but the way I just ran it came up with these results. I have no idea how the capped scoring works.. hopefully we don't get that far down the road. It's way to early to really think about this option at this point.

eta: if LSU goes 8-0, it looks like it would be LSU vs A&M, but obviously depends on the other games.

1. LSU (8 - 0)
2. Texas A&M (7 - 1) Above Georgia based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
3. Georgia (7 - 1) Below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4219).
4. Texas (6 - 2) Above Tennessee based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (6-1).
5. Tennessee (6 - 2) Below Texas based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (5-2).

Interesting to see that Texas and Tennessee have 7 common opponents.. didn't know that.

Only difference is we play A&M and they play Alabama.

Ya'll really think Florida isn't winning another sec game? Bit harsh imo.

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Yep. The only scenario in which losing the SEC championship game isn't a huge disadvantage is if you only dropped to 5th. In that CFP scenario, you would play a CFP game at home against a G5 team (likely Boise), gain some momentum, and then likely play Iowa St at a neutral site in the quarters. Of course, missing the SEC game, finishing 5th and having the same CFP scenario is about as ideal as it gets.

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If you’re losing badly in the championship game at half time and know it’s mathematically impossible for you to come back, it may be more advantageous to forfeit the 2nd half to reduce injuries, and then begin preparing for the next game. I don’t think this would ever happen but it’s a possibility.

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Ya'll really think Florida isn't winning another sec game? Bit harsh imo.

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Oh I think you will win at least one. Y'all are playing a lot better. Hopefully it isn't against Texas.

How about LSU and Ole Miss?

Only change UGA beating Miss. (from what’s already chosen):

1 - UGA (7-1)

2 - Tex. (7-1)

3 - TA&M (7-1)

Here's a fun one with a few upsets:
Bama wins out
LSU loses to A&M and Bama
UGA loses to Ole Miss
TAMU loses to Auburn and Texas
Ole Miss wins out
Mizzou loses to Bama but wins the rest
Tenn loses to UGA but wins the rest
Texas loses to Arkansas

SEC Standings

1. Alabama (6 - 2) Above Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5).
2. LSU (6 - 2) With Georgia, Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, and Texas A&M, below Alabama based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688). With Georgia, above Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688). Above Georgia based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-1).
3. Georgia (6 - 2) With LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, and Texas A&M, below Alabama based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688). With LSU, above Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, and Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4688). Below LSU based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-2).
4. Texas A&M (6 - 2) With Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee, and Texas, below Alabama based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531). With Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee, and Texas, below Georgia and LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531). With Ole Miss and Missouri, above Tennessee and Texas based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-0). Above Ole Miss and Missouri based on conference opponent win percentage (0.4531).
5. Ole Miss (6 - 2) With Georgia, LSU, Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, and Texas A&M, below Alabama based on conference opponent win percentage (0.375). With Missouri, Tennessee, Texas, and Texas A&M, below Georgia and LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.375). With Missouri and Texas A&M, above Tennessee and Texas based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-0). With Missouri, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.375). Above Missouri based on Capped Relative Scoring Margin (not actual placement: you must check yourself).
6. Missouri (6 - 2) With Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas, and Texas A&M, below Alabama based on conference opponent win percentage (0.375). With Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas, and Texas A&M, below Georgia and LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.375). With Ole Miss and Texas A&M, above Tennessee and Texas based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (2-0). With Ole Miss, below Texas A&M based on conference opponent win percentage (0.375). Below Ole Miss based on Capped Relative Scoring Margin (not actual placement: you must check yourself).
7. Tennessee (6 - 2) With Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, Texas, and Texas A&M, below Alabama based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594). With Ole Miss, Missouri, Texas, and Texas A&M, below Georgia and LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594). With Texas, below Ole Miss, Missouri, and Texas A&M based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-1). Above Texas based on Capped Relative Scoring Margin (not actual placement: you must check yourself).
8. Texas (6 - 2) With Georgia, LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee, and Texas A&M, below Alabama based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594). With Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee, and Texas A&M, below Georgia and LSU based on conference opponent win percentage (0.3594). With Tennessee, below Ole Miss, Missouri, and Texas A&M based on record vs common conference opponents all played one time (1-1). Below Tennessee based on Capped Relative Scoring Margin (not actual placement: you must check yourself).
9. Arkansas (4 - 4)
10. S Carolina (3 - 5)
11. Florida (2 - 6) Above Auburn, Kentucky, and Vandy based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5938).
12. Vandy (2 - 6) With Auburn and Kentucky, below Florida based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5781). Above Auburn and Kentucky based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5781).
13. Kentucky (2 - 6) With Auburn and Vandy, below Florida based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5156). With Auburn, below Vandy based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5156). Above Auburn based on head-to-head record (1-0).
14. Auburn (2 - 6) With Kentucky and Vandy, below Florida based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5156). With Kentucky, below Vandy based on conference opponent win percentage (0.5156). Below Kentucky based on head-to-head record (0-1).
15. Oklahoma (1 - 7)
16. Miss St (0 - 8)

I really do feel like we may just be getting A&M at the right time. Guess we'll just have to see. Would be a very A&M thing to do, just like it would be a very South Carolina thing to do to turn right around and lose to Vanderbilt after beating A&M.

I do think this calculator is correct in that we only get 2 more SEC wins, but it looks like they think it's Vandy and Mizzou.