re: College football strength of schedule rankings for 2022 season

Cincinnati at 103. What a pathetic conference they're in

Kind of a simple way to calculate SOS. If you play a team that went 8-4 in the SEC, it gives you the same SOS if you play a team from the Sun Belt that went 8-4.

SECW teams ranked too low.

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Thuga

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Try having an original thought

Ole Miss at #60 is laughable, that schedule thru 9 games is soft as fk. I doubt an Ole Miss fan disagrees,

The problem with these types of metrics is they use averages. And averages suck.

I've posted it 100 times already, and I'll probably post it another 100 times this year.

Which is the more difficult schedule?

vs #1 and vs #100

or

vs #49 and #50


The correct answer is the schedule that is vs the #1 and #100 team is WAY more difficult than playing the #49 and #50 teams. Most top25 teams could expect 1 loss on one schedule while expecting 0 losses against the #49 and #50 teams.

But averages say the opposite is true. Averages say the team that played the #49 and #50 teams had the more difficult schedule.

The best way to overcome this problem is to predict the number of expected losses an elite team would expect to have on any particular schedule. Such a metric would correctly show that the #1 and #100 schedule is tougher with 1 expected loss, while the #49 and #50 schedule would have 0 expected losses.