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re: Coaches vs. AP Top 25 teams
Posted on 9/25/19 at 2:45 pm to BHMKyle
Posted on 9/25/19 at 2:45 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
If he were to drop all three, he'd fall to 3-4 against Top 25 teams heading into a bowl game.
And even if that did happen, still way ahead on projection compared to his time at MSU and hasn't really build his program yet anyway. Only needs 6 more wins out of the next 36 to do better than his time at MSU. I have a good feeling that will happen as long as he is there.
This post was edited on 9/25/19 at 2:46 pm
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Posted on 9/25/19 at 3:00 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Jury is still out. He was 3-1 last season against Top 25 teams. This year he'll likely face three such teams in the regular season: Auburn, @ LSU, and Georgia. He'll be an underdog in 2 of those games and the other one will be close to a pick 'em. If he were to drop all three, he'd fall to 3-4 against Top 25 teams heading into a bowl game.
Really need at least 10 or 12 games to get a good idea.
Why aren't you using final rankings? He's already won more in 1 year at UF than in 9 years at MSU.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 3:04 pm to BHMKyle
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Mike Leach is incredibly overrated
If he leaves, WSU is going back to being a bottom dweller so no.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 3:40 pm to rockiee
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And even if that did happen, still way ahead on projection compared to his time at MSU
Using his time at MSU as a benchmark is not setting a very high bar. The man was 8-32 against Top 25 teams, and most of those 8 wins were against teams that ended up finishing outside the Top 25 by season's end. I think the actual number of teams in the final poll was like 2 or 3 total.
quote:
and hasn't really build his program yet anyway.
... and he's still not really building the program. How many of his recent signees made it to campus? I don't have the stat, but someone recently ran the numbers and if Florida's class was recalculated to account for all the signees that never made it to campus, it would fall to a national ranking of somewhere in the 30s I believe.
quote:
Only needs 6 more wins out of the next 36 to do better than his time at MSU. I have a good feeling that will happen as long as he is there
I can tell you right now that if Mullen gets even close to an 8-32 pace against ranked opponents while in Gainsville, he'll be fired way before he gets to his 40th game against a ranked team.
Again, we're not setting a very high bar by using his record at MSU.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 3:46 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
... and he's still not really building the program. How many of his recent signees made it to campus? I don't have the stat, but someone recently ran the numbers and if Florida's class was recalculated to account for all the signees that never made it to campus, it would fall to a national ranking of somewhere in the 30s I believe.
And that makes his current record against the top 25 even more impressive. You are right about 4 games not being a big enough sample size but it isn't a fluke.
quote:
Again, we're not setting a very high bar by using his record at MSU.
That isn't the point. The point is it shows how important the school is as to the success of the coach, especially when looking at top 25 wins. That is what I and others have been arguing throughout the thread.
You were very tough on Mullen about it and while it is bad, no doubt. A lot of that was more MSU than it was Coach Mullen. We will see but if Mullen is hovering around 50% by 10-15 games, it will really prove that point.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 3:47 pm to Korin
quote:
Why aren't you using final rankings?
And this is a good point as well. It is normally agreed that this is the best method.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 3:48 pm to Old Money
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If he leaves, WSU is going back to being a bottom dweller so no.
How is Leach any different than past Washington State coaches. Here is Washington State's final rankings under Leach:
2012: NR
2013: NR
2014: NR
2015: NR
2016: NR
2017: NR
2018: #10
Wow! One lone Top 25 finish in seven seasons. But wait, let's check on his team this year?.... Oh yeah that's right, they just lost at home to UCLA... a team that hasn't had a winning record since 2015 and who came into Pullman last weekend with an 0-3 record. Yep, Leach is really on fire this year isn't he?
Washington State had one Top 20 finish in both the 1970s and 1980s.
They finished #15 in 1992... #21 in 1994... and #9 in 1997.
They finished #10 in 2001... #10 in 2002... and #9 in 2003.
Now Leach has one #10 finish in his seventh season at the helm, and we're supposed to act like its the first time in school history? Sorry the facts say otherwise.
This post was edited on 9/25/19 at 3:52 pm
Posted on 9/25/19 at 3:51 pm to rockiee
quote:
And that makes his current record against the top 25 even more impressive. You are right about 4 games not being a big enough sample size but it isn't a fluke.
A win over a Mississippi State team that ended up not even finishing ranked is one of those 3 wins.
Another was a win over an overrated Michigan team that fell apart at the end of the season and likely wans't ever very good last year to begin with.
Yes, his win over LSU last season was impressive. But Texas A&M also beat LSU last year so again, let's not celebrate too hard.
quote:
You are right about 4 games not being a big enough sample size but it isn't a fluke.
It's completely not enough to even perform an evaluation. Not even close. It very well COULD be a fluke. Again, 4 games is not even data to form an opinion.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 3:52 pm to rockiee
quote:
And this is a good point as well. It is normally agreed that this is the best method.
And he keeps ignoring me for some mysterious reason.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 3:54 pm to Korin
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And he keeps ignoring me for some mysterious reason.
You spend the time to use final rankings. I agree final rankings are better, but I don't have the time to put that together. By all means please provide.
But for most coaches, it will wash out to be about the same... especially the ones with 20 or so total wins against ranked teams.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 3:57 pm to BHMKyle
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I agree final rankings are better,
quote:
but I don't have the time to put that together.
How much more time does it take?
Posted on 9/25/19 at 3:58 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
2012: NR
2013: NR
2014: NR
2015: NR
2016: NR
2017: NR
2018: #10
This isn't the way you measure a program like Washington St. They have been ranked like 10 times in their 102 years of football
Since 1952, Leach has the highest winning percentage of all coaches. He is 3rd all time in wins and has been there 8 years. The guys above him were there for 14 and 17 years.
This post was edited on 9/25/19 at 4:04 pm
Posted on 9/25/19 at 4:03 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
A win over a Mississippi State team that ended up not even finishing ranked is one of those 3 wins.
This is the way you chose to look at ranked teams. We can't really nitpick that if we have used this standard from the start of the thread but glad we both agree that finish is more important.
quote:
let's not celebrate too hard.
No one really is yet. It is a good sign for the future though. I don't care for Mullen in anyway but I just remember you have always been a very big critic of his.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 4:04 pm to rockiee
They had some very good teams under Price but were still wildly inconsistent.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 4:05 pm to rockiee
quote:
This is the way you chose to look at ranked teams. We can't really nitpick that if we have used this standard from the start of the thread but glad we both agree that finish is more important.
And he's wrong anyhow since MSU finished #25 C.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 4:06 pm to Korin
quote:
They had some very good teams under Price but were still wildly inconsistent.
For sure, Price did a great job. He even got the coach after him a top 10 finish.
That being said, Leach has still done very well and I think he will end up with better numbers all around if he stays as long as Price. That just doesn't sound overrated to me but maybe the people Kyle talks with think he is a top coach in CFB, which I don't.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 4:07 pm to Korin
quote:
And he's wrong anyhow since MSU finished #25 C.
Good point
Posted on 9/25/19 at 4:11 pm to BHMKyle
More impressed with Gary Patterson given TCU has 7800 students of which 65 percent are good looking and rich Texas women.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 4:40 pm to rockiee
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I don't care for Mullen in anyway but I just remember you have always been a very big critic of his.
Any coach who is 8-32 against ranked opponents deserves criticism.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 4:43 pm to Korin
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They had some very good teams under Price but were still wildly inconsistent.
Yes, but somehow Leach who just lost at home to 0-3 UCLA as an 18.5 point favorite is the epitome of consistency. Do I have that right?
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