Close Games in the SEC

Close Games

Since Arkansas and South Carolina entered the SEC in 1993, 146 of the 820 regular season, conference games played in the SEC have been decided by 3 points or fewer. Here's the breakdown:

Team...........#Games.. Record
Arkansas........32.......17-14-1
Ole Miss........29.......14-15
Alabama.........27.......13-13-1
LSU............27.......14-12-1
Miss. St........27.......11-15-1
Auburn..........24.......15-8-1
Tennessee......24.......15-8-1
So. Carolina....23........9-13-1
Georgia.........22.......14-7-1
Kentucky........19........8-11
Vanderbilt......19........5-14
Florida..........18........6-12

I guess that's what a person like Alabama writer Paul Finebaum means when he writes tripe like Arkansas, South Carolina have been a drag on the SEC. The good people from Alabama keep their State Idiot way from mass media equipment!

No other SEC team has played more regular-season conference games decided by 3 points or fewer since 1993 than Arkansas. With LSU, about 1/3 (6) of the games have been decided by 3 points or fewer. More specifics on LSU and close games follow below.

The effort put in here to learn about close games and field goal kicking is time well spent. You won't see this information elsewhere.

The Relationship between Field Goals and Wins

The title doesn’t say “The Relationship between Field Goals and Close Wins.”

It makes common sense that there would be a positive relationship between better field goal kicking and the number of wins a team produces. To take a closer look, the final complete season records for SEC Teams were paired with field goal information for each team for each year from 2000-2009. Teams were sorted according to the number of wins 14, 13, 12, 11, 10, and so forth, and then their numbers of field goals made, attempted and percentage made were averaged according to the number of wins achieved at the end of the year. Alabama in 2009 was the only SEC team in the last 10 years with 14 wins so its data alone was used for 14 wins. Six squads achieved 13 wins so their FG’s made, attempted and percentages were averaged together and so forth.

Wins.....%
0........0
1........0
2........47
3........54
4........58
5........60.8
6........63.8
7........66.3
8........71.1
9........75.3
10.......79.5
11.......82.9
12.......84.6
13.......89.6
14.......83.3

A pattern develops at three wins and above. For each win over 3 wins (which is associated with a 53% field goal accuracy), continuing up through 7 wins, each field goal percentage increase of roughly 3 percentage points equates to each additional win over 3. It’s darn close to straight line.

Between six and seven wins, one thing dramatically changes. Instead of making between 8-11 kicks per year up to six wins, for seven, eight and nine wins, kickers average between 13-15 made field goals. Instead of a 3 percentage point increase in accuracy, there’s a 4 percentage point increase in accuracy for each win above 8.

Lastly, the average number of made field goals associated with 10, 11, and 13 wins is 19 in all three winning groups.

Close Games and What If.....?

2004 is the earliest year in which all of the game box scores and charts are available at YahooSports.com.

In the games since 2004, the SEC has had 58 close games by the 3 points or fewer margin in 2004 through 2009.

Of the 58 close games since 2004, if both teams made all of their field goals, the Loser would have become the Winner in 12 of them. Some would have resulted in a tie.

If only the loser made all field goals, the results would have changed in 22 of the 58.

With much of the information in place and despite the fact it would take some time, the play-by-play charts were looked up on Yahoo Sports to determine how the points were scored by the winner in each of the 58 close games, and the manner of the “decisive points” were noted next to each game.

Decisive points are those which provided the final margin of victory.

It was then that something appeared which nearly wipes out all straightforward analysis.

An Odd Observation Screams Significance

After a hard look at close SEC games in comparison to those Arkansas has played, it’s doubtful that anyone but statistics geeks actually on a teams’ payrolls have discovered what follows. However, if the statistics geeks had figured out certain characteristics of close games, none of it has escaped the mouths of former coaches or players who professionally comment on football in almost every media outlet that exists. The Data Table is at the end of the post on Hog Database.

In an observation made exclusively here after the Liberty Bowl, Coach Petrino’s first win with a field goal in his seventy-six-game college head coaching career is truly significant and not some “Wow, that’s weird!” kind of number. To put it succinctly, a basketball maxim is borrowed and expanded.

In close SEC Games a team lives by the 3 and dies by the 3 or lives by 6 and dies by 6.

Think for a moment about how games are decided. You could think of all sorts of ways games are won. Who would have thought that Auburn and Mississippi State would have played a FOOTBALL game to a score of 3-2 or that Arkansas would beat Kentucky 71-63? Expectations would be that close games would be no different. A coach would always profess, “We’ll take a win however we can get it.” That’s why uncovering the maxim above was never expected.

From the study of 58 close SEC games over the last 6 years, in 26 games a field goal provided the winning margin. 32 were decided by a touchdown and extra point. Of the 32, in 6 the margin was actually the extra point.

From there only one more comparison needed to be made to possibly understand the observation made after Arkansas' Liberty Bowl win.

When the number of field goals made by teams whose decisive points were provided by a field goal were compared to the number of field goals made by the losing team, the winning team made more field goals than its opponent in 19 or 73% of the 26 games. In two other games the teams who won with a field goal made the same number as their opponents.

An even stronger correlation exists between the winning margin being provided by a touchdown and PAT and the winning team kicking fewer field goals. Of the 32 games won by a touchdown and PAT, in 24 of them (or 75%), the winning team kicked fewer field goals. In one other, the teams made the same number of field goals.

In what was initially expected to be random, an understanding of close SEC Games has emerged. Teams whose decisive points came with field goals in close games will strongly tend to score more field goals during the course of a game. Teams who score decisive points with a touchdown and an extra point win close games more often and score fewer field goals.

When it comes to LSU, since 2004 the Tigers have played 12 games decided by 3 points or fewer.

Win or lose LSU has followed the trend suggested here 9 times, bucking it once, and having the same number of field goals twice.

Of the 7 wins in those 12 games, LSU's decisive points have been scored with both field goals (3) and touchdowns + PATs (4).

When LSU has been on the losing side of close games, the winner's decisive points have been scored by touchdowns and PATs 4 times and by a field goal once.

Full charts, sortable and searchable with the information above are at Hog Database.