re: Are we sure LSU controls their destiny?

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Picking Oregon specifically over Georgia would be an absolutely unprecedented move

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not really when you consider that winning your conference with 0/1 loss is priority one in the history of playoff selections. If you don't win your conference, but do only have 1 loss, you're at th eback of the line and would need a bit of help from others.

Logically I agree with you that it'd be a pretty big slap in the face to UGA, but on the other hand there has to be a reward for winning your conference and if you're a 1-loss P5 champion you will/should pretty much assuredly be in.

It's a tough choice that I hope doesn't come to fruition but it's fun to think about. Personally I'm pretty confident we won't have to deal with that sceaniro in real life. Things typically seem to work themselves out nicely after 13 games.

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Yeah, I agree. Which is why I gave them a 23% chance to win out….

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But you also have them favored to win every game

LSU needs plenty of help to get in. To echo the above comments, I’ll be thrilled just to be in Atlanta. If we make a good showing there, I’ll be thrilled with NY6. Everything after last Saturday is lagniappe to 98% of us.

For example, if we get left out in favor of a UT team that beat us by 4 TDs on our own field, I don’t think you’ll find many of us saying in our heart of hearts that it isn’t fair.

Last thing I’ll say, every LSU fan you met walking out of Tiger Stadium on Black Friday 2007 after the Arkansas loss would have told you the NC dream is over. Then all hell broke loose the next week. And that was for a two team playoff, not four. Just keep winning and see what happens.

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But you also have them favored to win every game

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Someone doesn’t understand basic probability rules

(no message)

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I can guarantee you 12-1 Georgia gets in over 12-1 Oregon or 11-1 Tennessee considering the head to head

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This is what is so intriguing about the whole thing. Who gets in?

Georgia absolutely crushed Oregon and handily beat Tennessee.

Tennessee lost to Georgia but dominated LSU.

So in the scenario that LSU were to run the table, who do you leave out?

Oregon who would be the 1 loss PAC-12 champ?
Georgia who beat both Tennessee and Oregon easily?
Tennessee who easily beat LSU?
Or LSU who JUST beat Georgia and are SEC Champs?

We likely won't see the situation play out but dear lord the build up to the playoff announcement would be epic.

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not really when you consider that winning your conference with 0/1 loss is priority one in the history of playoff selections. If you don't win your conference, but do only have 1 loss, you're at th eback of the line and would need a bit of help from others.

Logically I agree with you that it'd be a pretty big slap in the face to UGA, but on the other hand there has to be a reward for winning your conference and if you're a 1-loss P5 champion you will/should pretty much assuredly be in.

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Maybe, but the committee knows: a.) that not all conferences are equal, and b.) that specific sentiment can go out the window when one non-conference champion (from a stronger conference) played said conference champion under consideration and completely decimated them. Again, it's not like Georgia beat them by one possession.

Alabama in 2017 is a good example, albeit Ohio State did have 2 losses, so that is admittedly a different scenario.

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It's a tough choice that I hope doesn't come to fruition but it's fun to think about. Personally I'm pretty confident we won't have to deal with that sceaniro in real life. Things typically seem to work themselves out nicely after 13 games.

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Well, there's always that. Go 13-0, worry about nothing

But I personally believe if LSU upsets Georgia to have the dawgs fall to 12-1, the same thing that happened in 2021 will happen again, but Georgia may be the 4-seed against the 1-seed Ohio St/Michigan winner (my money would be on Ohio St over Michigan out of those two)

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What I’m asking, is how you came up with the percentages for each game

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I literally said in my post those are my percentages. I made them up based on my perception of the quality of teams.

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This is amplified by you giving them a 60% to win at Texas, in a game Texas is favored by a TD.

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I consider TCU better than Texas and think TCU would win 6/10 times on Texas’s field.

Personally I would pick Oregon because they are the only 1 loss champion. The championship has to mean something.

Playoffs should be TCU, Oregon, Georgia, and Ohio state/Michigan winner, assuming these teams win out. If TCU or Georgia drop 1 but still win the championship they should still be in. If Oregon goes to 2 loses they should be left out for Tennessee or the mich/osu loser, or even Clemson.

Now if LSU beats Georgia it will be interesting who gets left out. Wouldn’t be surprised if Georgia is still in over lsu though.