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An underdiscussed reason for less upsets is how "big school" teams play now
Posted on 3/24/25 at 8:13 pm
Posted on 3/24/25 at 8:13 pm
5-10 years ago smaller schools were the ones who tinkered with up tempo, 3 point centric, "different" types of styles while the majority of high major programs were pretty similar in how they played in terms of tempo, 2s vs 3s, etc.
Inherently, a game in which there are less possessions and one team is shooting a bunch of mid range jumpers and post up 2s vs a team that is shooting 20-25 3s is going to lead to a big variance. In some of those games the 3 point team is going to go 6/27 and lose by 27. But in 10-20% of those games the small, fast team that shoots a bunch of 3s is going to shoot well and the team that shoots a bunch of 2s going to put in a really difficult spot.
Fast forward to today...........everybody plays some version of the "shoot 3s/spread the floor" game. There are very very few coaches/programs left that do not at least tinker with the idea of shooting 3s and playing fast. The great equalizer that used to exist for smaller schools just doesn't anymore. There isn't a cheat code that, if you get execute well and get a little lucky, exists for them to press.
Doesn't mean there won't be anymore upsets, but it makes more talented, better, big athlete teams from the big leagues way less vulnerable than they used to be.
Inherently, a game in which there are less possessions and one team is shooting a bunch of mid range jumpers and post up 2s vs a team that is shooting 20-25 3s is going to lead to a big variance. In some of those games the 3 point team is going to go 6/27 and lose by 27. But in 10-20% of those games the small, fast team that shoots a bunch of 3s is going to shoot well and the team that shoots a bunch of 2s going to put in a really difficult spot.
Fast forward to today...........everybody plays some version of the "shoot 3s/spread the floor" game. There are very very few coaches/programs left that do not at least tinker with the idea of shooting 3s and playing fast. The great equalizer that used to exist for smaller schools just doesn't anymore. There isn't a cheat code that, if you get execute well and get a little lucky, exists for them to press.
Doesn't mean there won't be anymore upsets, but it makes more talented, better, big athlete teams from the big leagues way less vulnerable than they used to be.
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Posted on 3/24/25 at 8:29 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Name, Image and Likeness - NIL.
There’s your reason. Big schools have bigger money. You won’t find many Cinderella’s in this current state of college sports.
There’s your reason. Big schools have bigger money. You won’t find many Cinderella’s in this current state of college sports.
Posted on 3/24/25 at 8:51 pm to SummerOfGeorge
NIL and unrestricted transfers killed the mid majors
Posted on 3/25/25 at 2:56 am to SummerOfGeorge
Mega conferences don't help either.
BYU and Houston would've been mid majors just a few years ago.
BYU and Houston would've been mid majors just a few years ago.
Posted on 3/25/25 at 5:02 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
everybody plays some version of the "shoot 3s/spread the floor" game. There are very very few coaches/programs left that do not at least tinker with the idea of shooting 3s and playing fast.
Absolutely killed a beautiful game. I barely even watch basketball anymore because of this.
Posted on 3/25/25 at 5:32 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
everybody plays some version of the "shoot 3s/spread the floor" game.
Yes and no. They all play up tempo, and spread the floor but they differ. There are still trade-offs. AU plays more “inside out” where Broome is the first option to get a guard open from 3. Bama plays more a fast break game where a guard is the first option. A&M and Tennessee play a more defense-first offensive glass game. Etc.
There are differences in the styles. The big difference is NIL $$ and Transfer portal as others have said. All the schools rosters are littered with players from mid-majors who played one or two years and then steps up in weight class to P4.
This post was edited on 3/25/25 at 5:36 am
Posted on 3/25/25 at 5:40 am to SummerOfGeorge
Kinda reminds you of how in football they were the first to adopt the up tempo shotgun spread. Now it's been adapted and ironically you might see an advantage at times with them doing a power running game since most teams defend spread so much
Posted on 3/25/25 at 7:01 am to Smokeyone
quote:
NIL and unrestricted transfers killed the mid majors
Maybe maybe not. We are in what year 2 of NIL?
The shorter white guy that shoots a good 3 most of the time but can’t do much else isn’t getting much NIL. All you need is 2 guys to get super hot from 3 every other game and all of a sudden you are competing, look at creighton v Auburn.
It’s also not hard for a school to compete in NIL money for basketball. It’s 6-8 guys at most. Almost anyone can fund 1-2 big NIL players.
This post was edited on 3/25/25 at 7:04 am
Posted on 3/25/25 at 7:05 am to GatorNation4Lyfe
quote:
Big schools have bigger money. You won’t find many Cinderella’s in this current state of college sports.
Someone forgot to tell us that.
Also, Cinderellas are simply changing. Ole Miss can be considered a Cinderella. When we made the Final Four in 2017, as that not a Cinderella run?
Posted on 3/25/25 at 7:12 am to baldona
quote:
The shorter white guy that shoots a good 3 most of the time but can’t do much else isn’t getting much NIL
He’s getting some at the big school vs none at the mid majors. As soon as they make a bit of a splash they go sit on the bench at a bigger school.
Posted on 3/25/25 at 7:12 am to baldona
quote:
Maybe maybe not. We are in what year 2 of NIL?
The shorter white guy that shoots a good 3 most of the time but can’t do much else isn’t getting much NIL. All you need is 2 guys to get super hot from 3 every other game and all of a sudden you are competing, look at creighton v Auburn.
It’s also not hard for a school to compete in NIL money for basketball. It’s 6-8 guys at most. Almost anyone can fund 1-2 big NIL players.
All good points... but mid majors will continue to get their 1-2 funded NIL players raided by teams with even bigger pockets if those mid major guys produce.
Posted on 3/25/25 at 7:17 am to Gunga Din
NIL and unlimited transferring needs to be addressed.
Posted on 3/25/25 at 9:37 am to kywildcatfanone
We probably benefited the most this season from transfers.
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