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re: Alabama -26 vs. Mississippi State
Posted on 10/21/12 at 10:56 pm to volforever
Posted on 10/21/12 at 10:56 pm to volforever
1. russel is far and away the best QB they will have played all year. he's better than bray. he's way better than bray.
2. that line is way too high. bama is going to win. they might even win by 20. but they aren't gonna beat them by 26. that's just not gonna happen. miss state is not a bad team. coooper isn't gonna run all over banks and that defense will at least pretend to give a shite about stoping the run.
2. that line is way too high. bama is going to win. they might even win by 20. but they aren't gonna beat them by 26. that's just not gonna happen. miss state is not a bad team. coooper isn't gonna run all over banks and that defense will at least pretend to give a shite about stoping the run.
2
Posted on 10/21/12 at 11:03 pm to songofthesword
I really think the line is too high.
This post was edited on 10/21/12 at 11:04 pm
Posted on 10/21/12 at 11:37 pm to volfan30
Posted on 10/22/12 at 7:57 am to volfan30
The bookies are gonna go broke, shite I'll take Miss. st and 26
Posted on 10/22/12 at 8:05 am to RobG14-0
So basically what we've learned here is that the fair citizens of Starkville Mississippi are smarter than the guys in Vegas who've built billion dollar casinos by annually whipping the public with their lines? Gotcha. 
Posted on 10/22/12 at 8:07 am to RobG14-0
The computers and the sharps think MSU is average.
Remember that wvu -4 line vs. ttech everybody thought was easy money? Wvu lost by 40.
Remember that wvu -4 line vs. ttech everybody thought was easy money? Wvu lost by 40.
Posted on 10/22/12 at 9:01 am to John Maplethorpe
That line is more of a reflection on Alabama than it is a reflection on STATE. Bama is dominating people right now! STATE has a good team they just don't have the size and depth the Tide does.
Posted on 10/22/12 at 9:13 am to uabeachbum
I'd take state to cover that
Posted on 10/22/12 at 9:15 am to songofthesword
quote:
1. russel is far and away the best QB they will have played all year. he's better than bray. he's way better than bray.
Nice grind.
Posted on 10/22/12 at 9:19 am to engie
quote:
Had you watched, you would have seen that we had 8 receiver drops in that game,
And darkhorse was telling us yesterday that your receivers don't drop passes.
Posted on 10/22/12 at 9:24 am to Rambler
Just put 10k on bammer -26.5
Posted on 10/22/12 at 9:26 am to FlukerFlakes
I could have burned that 10k for you
Posted on 10/22/12 at 9:26 am to FlukerFlakes
What's the O/U?
That line seems high.
That line seems high.
Posted on 10/22/12 at 9:30 am to uabeachbum
quote:
That line is more of a reflection on Alabama than it is a reflection on STATE. Bama is dominating people right now! STATE has a good team they just don't have the size and depth the Tide does.
That's my line of thinking. Also, Bama & Saban have way more experience in the "big" game than State. I think Bama wants to make a statement as mush as State. As mush as it pains me, i can easily see a 38-14 type game with Bama taking it.
However, I think I'm gonna grind this week just for the hell of it.
Posted on 10/22/12 at 9:31 am to gatordmb89
quote:
That line seems high.
Because it is.
Posted on 10/22/12 at 9:32 am to pvilleguru
quote:
And darkhorse was telling us yesterday that your receivers don't drop passes.
I can only think of one or two since that game to be fair, I think Brewster tore them a new a-hole and Saturday was the first time I saw Morrow on the field since.
Posted on 10/22/12 at 9:37 am to volfan30
Those Vegas fellows are tricky... Just maybe, they set the line that high to get bettors across the country to put up some money on Miss St? I think their scheme works by have equal bets on both side's then making money from the sugar.
just tryin' to help
just tryin' to help
This post was edited on 10/22/12 at 9:38 am
Posted on 10/22/12 at 10:00 am to GoT1de
Tornado Alley and Spacewrangler have GOOD records against the spread (82% & 64%, respectively, before last weekend). When they talk ATS, I listen. I think the line is pretty accurate, but I'm not playing this one because there are just too many questions in my mind. I just don't have a good feel yet for how State will fare against a quality opponent. I think Bama will cover -24 (maybe 38-10, 41-14), but it's not a strong feeling, so I will play other games.
This post was edited on 10/22/12 at 10:04 am
Posted on 10/22/12 at 10:10 am to GoT1de
quote:
Those Vegas fellows are tricky... Just maybe, they set the line that high to get bettors across the country to put up some money on Miss St? I think their scheme works by have equal bets on both side's then making money from the sugar. just tryin' to help
This. When considering the spread you have to consider that they need more people to bet. It doesn't matter who wins on the line they are going to get their cut either way. Fact is if the spread were 10 a lot of people wouldn't touch it, you would have people blindly betting the over because its Alabama and few taking them not to cover, with the spread being this high the majority of your betters will research the teams and place money on state to hold it close. If you win a bet you aren't taking money from Vegas you are taking it on whoever is betting on the other side. Everyone in the nation is betting on Alabama, in order to get enough people to bet on the opposing team you have to set the line higher and higher to the point that it is ridiculous. The lines aren't based on what Vegas thinks will happen, it is based on what the betters are willing to place their money on and considering right now everyone will be Bama it will inevitably be high.
Posted on 10/22/12 at 10:15 am to RollTide316
quote:
I really think the line is too high.
Me too. State's defense is good enough to slow Bama down. I really thought the line would be about 14.
Plus even if Bama gets up big, they will definitely try to shorten the game and go conservative in the 4th. 26 points is an absolute blow out. I just don't see that happening. I'm thinking somewhere around Bama 27, MSU 16.
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