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re: Alabama -26 vs. Mississippi State
Posted on 10/22/12 at 10:21 am to skirpnasty
Posted on 10/22/12 at 10:21 am to skirpnasty
quote:
Fact is if the spread were 10 a lot of people wouldn't touch it,
This is where you lost me. If the line were Bama -10, they would be buried with money on Bama. They want equal money on both sides so that they have zero risk and a guaranteed 10% return on the juice. It could be that they know folks are inclined to take Bama and give up points, so they have to give more points to get someone to take the other side. Bama's 3-3 record ATS argues against that. In contrast, it could also be that they think Bama will win by more than 24 points but that they think folks will look at State's 7-0 record and be willing to take State with fewer points. Either way, there are too many question marks for me to play this game.
This post was edited on 10/22/12 at 10:27 am
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Posted on 10/22/12 at 10:26 am to skirpnasty
quote:
When considering the spread you have to consider that they need more people to bet
Yes, the more people bet the more Vegas wins in the long run
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It doesn't matter who wins on the line they are going to get their cut either way.
Every book has a position, they absolutely win or lose money each game.
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Fact is if the spread were 10 a lot of people wouldn't touch it,
Heads would roll if they someone took bets at 10, and yes it would get bet bigger than any CFB game in history.
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If you win a bet you aren't taking money from Vegas you are taking it on whoever is betting on the other side.
Again, the book has the money, the winner takes the money from the casino. All casinos have a position and each game and win or lose depending on outcome.
Posted on 10/22/12 at 10:28 am to SBC
Think this line is a little low.
Posted on 10/22/12 at 10:29 am to skirpnasty
quote:
If you win a bet you aren't taking money from Vegas you are taking it on whoever is betting on the other side.
But in order to keep from getting hosed, the bookmaker has to set the line so that there will be equal amounts (or close)bet on each side. Very possible that the high spread is there to suck in betters on MSU, which the bookies hope to balance by bringing the line down to get the smart 'Bama betters (I know, totally incomprehensible concept)who stay away from the high spread to join the party. More likely it's there because the bookie really thinks 'Bama is 4 touchdowns better than MSU.
Posted on 10/22/12 at 11:13 am to S I W
quote:
S I W
Member since Jul 2012
1 post
quote:
Think this line is a little low.
By all means feel free to post your thoughts.
Posted on 10/28/12 at 2:34 pm to CoonassBulldog
quote:
get all you can on State +24
easy money
Posted on 10/28/12 at 2:38 pm to volfan30
Last week I took Bama and gave 24 then went to sleep at halftime last night with a smile on my face
Posted on 10/28/12 at 2:38 pm to FlukerFlakes
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FlukerFlakes
Just put 10k on bammer -26.5
Posted on 10/28/12 at 2:46 pm to TT9
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TT9
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38-7 Bama.
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