re: A Redditor's Objective Mathematical SEC HC Ranking

seriously. college football is small sample size the sport. which is one of its biggest flaws yet probably its biggest attraction.

if auburn doesn't throw the hail mary to beat georgia, then butch jones leads the sec in 'wappy.' would that change my opinion of malzahn at all? no.

if alabama beats auburn in overtime along with georgia beating auburn, then malzahn would 'grade out' as like the 8th best coach.

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so it is a good list only because sumlin is higher than les? what about the rest of the list?

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Bottom 2 seem fine, but I could see an argument either way. Only anomalies could be Saban, Gus and Butch, but I haven't seen enough from Gus/Butch to be sure.

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if alabama beats auburn in overtime along with georgia beating auburn, then malzahn would 'grade out' as like the 8th best coach.

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But they didn't. Auburn was the better team. If you didn't believe it that night, you probably believed it after Oklahoma trounced Alabama, didn't you? Alabama had a better recruited team, well in to the Process, with a senior QB who finished second in the Heisman voting... and they STILL weren't as good as an Auburn team with a safety for a quarterback.

He wasn't commenting on whether or not he thought Auburn was better than Alabama. He was just saying a ranking where one play can make a coach go from 1st to 8th is dumb.

t1. Gus Malzahn (1) -- can't argue with results, but dude is the anti-Ole Miss.
t1. Nick Saban (3) -- Results
3. Steve Spurrier (8) -- Results, never has a "bad" team, resurrecting a once-dead program in USCe
4. Les Miles (6)
5. Mark Richt (5) -- Very consistent coach. Would be tied for 1 if he wins a championship.
6. Gary Pinkel (10) -- GROSSLY underrated, gets most out players.
t7. Kevin Sumlin (6) -- Shows lots of promise, but ain't done a whole lot yet.
t7. Hugh Freeze (9) -- See Sumlin
t7. Will Muschamp (11) -- See Sumlin
t7. Dan Mullen (12) -- See Sumlin
11. Bret Bielema (10) -- another shitty season and he goes to last.
t12. Mark Stoops (13) -- Good recruiter, sucked at Arizona. jury still out.
t12. Butch Jones (2) -- ain't done shite. jury still out.

(parenthetical indicates OP link ranking)

I would put the coaches in tiers instead of ranking them outright.

Tier 1:
(in no particular order)
Gus Malzahn
Nick Saban
Steve Spurrier

Tier 2:
Mark Richt
Les Miles
Gary Pinkel

Tier 3:
Kevin Sumlin
Hugh Freeze
Will Muschamp
Dan Mullen

Tier 4:
Bret Bielema
Mark Stoops
Butch Jones

Steve is 0-3 against Miles yo

eta:
Sumlin vs Miles 0-2
Malzahn vs Miles 0-1

if anything, this system shows how dangerous it is to judge malzahn at auburn after just 14 games. it's statistically impossible for him to win close games over years and years of games at the rate auburn did in the regular season

i know this comment will flamed to death with 'u scared' or whatever but yolo SEND

And this is why the word "objective" should only be used by people who aren't blithering idiots.

Seriously, statistics are only as useful as the foundational premises, and even a cursory glance should make obvious that this list is useless. It ignores the extremely important issues of replication and consistency. Let me assure you -- these are not just issues that could make the list even more accurate. They're issues that, in removing them, actually make the list next to worthless. This contrast alone should have given you pause. Add to that the fact that the "Pythagorean wins" simultaneously rewards lowered expectations while punishing higher ones, especially when games are governed by football scoring....


Or, to put it another way -- I wonder where Chizik would have ranked in February 2010? Probably approximately where Malzahn ranks on this list. The almost-incidental mention of the likely course of Malzahn's numbers over time stands in stark contrast with his attention-grabbing and inane leaps to broad conclusions in the rest of the post.

Sorry, dude. I'm not attacking you for reposting this, or for not analyzing it closely before doing so. But common sense alone should have sent up alarm bells after reading the Reddit post (which is chock-full of subjective and unsustainable observations even over and above the numbers.) The mistake many people make is being dazzled by counter-intuitive results without grasping that being counter-intuitive isn't, in itself, validation. Indeed, it's a reason to invite much harsher scrutiny. In this case, the poster pretty much took an inapplicable algorithm and applied it improperly while deriving unsustainable conclusions from insufficient data points.

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if anything, this system shows how dangerous it is to judge malzahn at auburn after just 14 games. it's statistically impossible for him to win close games over years and years of games at the rate auburn did in the regular season

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It includes his entire head coaching career. Not just at Auburn.

Same with Butch Jones.

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It includes his entire head coaching career. Not just at Auburn.

Same with Butch Jones.

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So a 55-34 Jones is better than a 165-57-1 Saban with 4 National Titles?