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re: 4 Keys to LSU-Texas : Bill Connelly, ESPN
Posted on 9/6/19 at 9:36 am to XWing atAliciousness
Posted on 9/6/19 at 9:36 am to XWing atAliciousness
Couple things
(1) I agree re: LSU pulling away. That would be my best guess.
(2) I think the conditioning thing was more along the lines of the fact that neither team has played a full, 40 minute, high intensity game yet. So yes, both teams have kids who are used to it and practice in it, but even then sometimes teams have hydration/conditioning issues early in the year, especially in games like this (see FSU last week). The temps aren't going to shock any of these guys, but they still wear on you, even if you are used to it and practice in it.
(1) I agree re: LSU pulling away. That would be my best guess.
(2) I think the conditioning thing was more along the lines of the fact that neither team has played a full, 40 minute, high intensity game yet. So yes, both teams have kids who are used to it and practice in it, but even then sometimes teams have hydration/conditioning issues early in the year, especially in games like this (see FSU last week). The temps aren't going to shock any of these guys, but they still wear on you, even if you are used to it and practice in it.
1
Posted on 9/6/19 at 9:38 am to IAmNERD
quote:
Does this dumbass not know the climate of south Louisiana? 100 with 98% humidity is an average day for nearly 3 months of the year there.
That is a baffling choice there. Could it have an impact? I'm sure it could. But, as he mentioned, the things Texas does to wear down people are the things that LSU does... only LSU can run the ball to boot.
Not to mention that yes, the heat and humidity certainly had an effect on the FSU vs Boise game. On the local FSU team. Boise, Idaho is not exactly noted for being a sweltering hellhole of heat and humidity but they did just fine.
Some interesting points but that one seemed like a real reach to me.
Posted on 9/6/19 at 9:44 am to SummerOfGeorge
I haven't been pumped like this for a game in a long time.
This one is massive as far as Big 12, playoffs.
We need to win this.
Im worried a Texas win here is another launching pad at our expense (Clemson 2012).
This one is massive as far as Big 12, playoffs.
We need to win this.
Im worried a Texas win here is another launching pad at our expense (Clemson 2012).
Posted on 9/6/19 at 9:52 am to CBandits82
not a bad article from an underdog homer.
TOP is important, and so is scoring.
TOP is important, and so is scoring.
Posted on 9/6/19 at 10:01 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
talk about this game being an absolute blood bath that I don't quite get.
Same here. I'm just hoping for a 1-point, non-OT win for the Tigers.
Posted on 9/6/19 at 10:14 am to Not Cooper
quote:
I don't get this. Both teams have practiced in this all summer.
Very good read tho. Thanks for sharing
In theory, so had FSU, but it didn't stop them from getting WORKED by Boise State... the opposing team's offense dictates the pace of play as well as what ends up being demanded of the defense... covering space and over-exerting for pass rush on short passes for example.
Neither team has a decided advantage just because it's hot, but whichever team can be more efficient and put more of the burden on the opposing team's defense early and often could be a difference maker...
It's not a perfect point, but it's not entirely off base either.
Posted on 9/6/19 at 10:21 am to fibonaccisquared
quote:
but whichever team can be more efficient and put more of the burden on the opposing team's defense early and often could be a difference maker...
but LSU has really good depth at DLine and LB....two deep in the front 7...
Posted on 9/6/19 at 10:30 am to SummerOfGeorge
whorn doesn't create big plays. They are grinders who try to wear you down and then pound you.
Posted on 9/6/19 at 10:33 am to SummerOfGeorge
1. probably not a factor IMO
2. probably not, LSU's linebackers are deep and athletic. Arguably the best unit on the roster
3. That will be worth watching for sure. Run game was stagnant against Ga Southern but it didn't matter. Will need to be much more reliable on Saturday.
4. This seems overblown to me. Herman pulling a few major upsets while the coach of Houston is inconsequential to Saturday's game IMO. Both teams will be motivated and ready to make a statement.
LSU is the better team, and Bill C's own model is calling for a 14 point win. If they play relatively mistake free they should be able to win by 7-10 points.
2. probably not, LSU's linebackers are deep and athletic. Arguably the best unit on the roster
3. That will be worth watching for sure. Run game was stagnant against Ga Southern but it didn't matter. Will need to be much more reliable on Saturday.
4. This seems overblown to me. Herman pulling a few major upsets while the coach of Houston is inconsequential to Saturday's game IMO. Both teams will be motivated and ready to make a statement.
LSU is the better team, and Bill C's own model is calling for a 14 point win. If they play relatively mistake free they should be able to win by 7-10 points.
Posted on 9/6/19 at 10:40 am to LMfan
quote:
and Bill C's own model is calling for a 14 point win.
I didn't read that anywhere in that article. Where did you see that?
Posted on 9/6/19 at 10:46 am to oman
quote:
Change that to a 4 or 7 point win and I agree with you.
Agreed, I don't see a "bloodbath" or a "blowout" like the LSU fans around here do.
I DO think LSU wins and it won't really be in question at any point, but UT will be so hyped up for this game that they'll keep it within reach at minimum.
That RB depth will be a problem for UT, and Ehlinger running free against LSU's D-backs will get him slowly ground into a pulp.
It'll be a fun game to watch, and then make fun of the Longhorn fans for not showing up here afterward after talking shite here for weeks.
Posted on 9/6/19 at 10:49 am to CharlotteSooner
He posts his SP+ predictions in a separate article each week. Not sure if they're ont the site yet but threw them up on twitter the other day.
FWIW, he's around 55% ATS.
LINK
FWIW, he's around 55% ATS.
LINK
Posted on 9/6/19 at 10:52 am to CharlotteSooner
quote:
They are grinders who try to wear you down and then pound you.
As do their boyfriends
Posted on 9/6/19 at 10:57 am to CharlotteSooner
quote:
whorn doesn't create big plays. They are grinders who try to wear you down and then pound you.
Our D will eat this alive.
Posted on 9/6/19 at 10:59 am to LMfan
I don't see your game listed on that link spreadsheet. What good is S&P data when everybody has only played 1 game? That's not a lot of data to work with.
Posted on 9/6/19 at 11:03 am to CBandits82
quote:
Our D will eat this alive.
All of you here said that about Georgia too. It was a consensus here. I'm not convinced by internet bravado.
This post was edited on 9/6/19 at 11:07 am
Posted on 9/6/19 at 11:12 am to CharlotteSooner
quote:Click the arrows on the edge, there are 2 pages.
I don't see your game listed on that link spreadsheet.
Posted on 9/6/19 at 11:16 am to WilliamTaylor21
LSU isn't winning this game 42-28
And again, what good is S&P data when everybody has only played 1 game, mostly against cupcakes? What are the data sets based off of?
This post was edited on 9/6/19 at 11:20 am
Posted on 9/6/19 at 11:37 am to SummerOfGeorge
IMO there are two main factors in terms of defending the UT offensive scheme working in the favor of LSU defense:
1. UT's running game will have to rely on Ehlinger and Ingram. Major depth issues.
2. When Ehlinger passes he typically rolls out. He's not much of a pocket passer. I think Herman likes to roll him out because it gives him a chance to run for yardage if his WR's are covered. Ehlinger is a goof runner. The problem is rolling out cuts off half the field and if the QB wants to go back to the middle or other side of the field he has to throw across his body. Ehlinger was successful against La Tech with some across the body throws. However against slightly more talented and athletic DBs those throws should have been interceptions instead of completions. LSU's DBs are more than slightly talented and athletic than La Tech's DBs. Additionally, when Ehlinger rolls out I don't think they quite have a grasp of how quick LSU LBs are...especially Stevens, Clark or Queen will be on Ehlinger real fast.
1. UT's running game will have to rely on Ehlinger and Ingram. Major depth issues.
2. When Ehlinger passes he typically rolls out. He's not much of a pocket passer. I think Herman likes to roll him out because it gives him a chance to run for yardage if his WR's are covered. Ehlinger is a goof runner. The problem is rolling out cuts off half the field and if the QB wants to go back to the middle or other side of the field he has to throw across his body. Ehlinger was successful against La Tech with some across the body throws. However against slightly more talented and athletic DBs those throws should have been interceptions instead of completions. LSU's DBs are more than slightly talented and athletic than La Tech's DBs. Additionally, when Ehlinger rolls out I don't think they quite have a grasp of how quick LSU LBs are...especially Stevens, Clark or Queen will be on Ehlinger real fast.
Posted on 9/6/19 at 11:38 am to kywildcatfanone
The simple fact that nearly everyone on this board thinks LSU is going to destroy Texas should make it obvious that it isn't going to happen.
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