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11/14/22 Updated ESPN CFB Playoff Predictor

Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:40 am
Posted by Phat Phil
Krispy Kreme
Member since May 2010
7373 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:40 am
LINK

Very interesting. If final record is 1 loss, UGA has the highest chance of making the playoffs at 78%, so I think UGA is pretty much in regardless. Second highest chance is Tennessee at 66% with one loss, but it will go higher and higher as more teams start to lose. Tennessee is pretty much in if we win out against SC and Vandy.
Posted by ClintStoerner
Member since Oct 2011
489 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:40 am to
It's true
Posted by deathvalleyfreak43
Baton Rouge
Member since Jul 2008
13233 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:41 am to
Posted by Mulkey Man
Member since Apr 2021
19403 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:42 am to
Explain to me how Bama has a 15% chance. What is the scenario?
Posted by r2d2
Member since Dec 2006
6842 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:42 am to
Unless UGA shits the bed vs UK and the SECCG they are in. Pobably could afford to lose one of those, just not both.
Posted by wadewilson
Member since Sep 2009
36529 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:43 am to
Posted by spslayto
Member since Feb 2004
19704 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:45 am to
quote:

Explain to me how Bama has a 15% chance. What is the scenario?


And better odds than LSU. Makes no sense.
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
32855 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:46 am to
Vols really only need TCU and USC to lose to get that 3 spot. If both win out, no spot for you
Posted by Hussss
Living the Dream
Member since Oct 2016
6742 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:48 am to
And folks thought I was crazy for saying no way USC gets in even if they win out.
Posted by TxWampus
Member since Oct 2021
201 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:52 am to
Given that the Pac-12 exploded last Sat, I still don't see USC getting high enough...

But enough of that...Have they actually updated this BS? Ala with a 15% chance to still make it???? So like does that mean everyone from 2 - 7 all loose multiple games with only 2 and championship games left? ESPN needs to stop STAD. At least them riding Tenn has some merit.
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
30875 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 11:58 am to
Interesting:

Michigan, if they lose to Ohio State and do not play in their conference championship game, has a 57% chance of making the playoffs.

Tennessee, if they win out, has a 66% chance of making it.

Makes sense. With identical records and no championship Tennessee should definitely be in over Michigan. Only thing I could see save Michigan is if they lose in OT to Ohio State, but even that seems unlikely.
Posted by OKBoomerSooner
Member since Dec 2019
3126 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 12:01 pm to
Tried Georgia. Couldn't even select them losing to LSU in the SECCG. ESPN HATES LSU!!!!
Posted by dawgfan24348
Member since Oct 2011
49263 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 12:01 pm to
Absolute chaos
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
32855 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 12:03 pm to
quote:

Given that the Pac-12 exploded last Sat, I still don't see USC getting high enough...


all they need for guarantee is 12-1
Posted by lsutigerelizabeth
Houma
Member since May 2022
1304 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 12:03 pm to
Bama at 15% is laughable
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
32855 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 12:03 pm to
quote:

Interesting: Michigan, if they lose to Ohio State and do not play in their conference championship game, has a 57% chance of making the playoffs.


What if OSU loses?
Posted by LSUstephen17
Houston
Member since Aug 2010
13112 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 12:08 pm to
Give up Tennessee you’re not going to the playoffs you don’t deserve it
Posted by SouthernInsanity
Shadows of Death Valley
Member since Nov 2012
18725 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 12:10 pm to
10RC will win their first natty since '98!!!

Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
30875 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 12:26 pm to
quote:

What if OSU loses?


Identical odds to Tennessee basically (66%)

The B1G's best shot at two teams is Michigan beating Ohio State, as OSU has a slightly better SOS.

Tennessee, of course, has the best SOS out of any team in the top 5. Alabama may be the only team with a stronger SOS in the top 10 by the end of the regular season (though honestly I don't know if Vandy or Auburn is the bigger drag on the SOS)
Posted by djsdawg
Member since Apr 2015
32855 posts
Posted on 11/14/22 at 12:31 pm to
quote:

Tennessee, of course, has the best SOS out of any team in the top 5.


With 2 terrible teams left
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