re: Game 4 - Florida - 9/26 - 2:30pm ABC

This could be why so much money got dumped, it’s not just Lacy:

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How many of those players have been contributing besides Lacy?

Faulkner was out last week. I think Chapman is new which hurts OL depth. My biggest takeaway is that Kite and Denison are good to go.

Rebs 31
Gators 27

About the line:

https://sports.yahoo.com/college-football/betting/article/college-football-betting-odds-why-is-no-4-ole-miss-an-underdog-against-no-21-florida-185142794.html

The No. 4-ranked Ole Miss Rebels are surely riding high after a 32-24 win on Saturday night against former coach Lane Kiffin in one of the most hyped — and memorable — regular-season college football games in some time.

Quarterback Trinidad Chambliss (33 of 48, 363 passing yards, 3 total TDs) led Ole Miss to a win over their former coach, vaulting him atop the Heisman odds board after the performance.

But heading into a game at No. 21 Florida on Saturday, Ole Miss has been installed as a 3.5-point underdog by oddsmakers, something that Florida head coach Jon Sumrall even seemed surprised about. When he was told by the media that Vegas oddsmakers had his team as a favorite, he joked, "There's a lot of good drugs out there."

So just how rare a situation is this?

If the line holds, it will mark only the fifth time since 1978 that a top-five ranked team is an underdog against a team ranked outside the top 20, per ESPN research. The previous four top-five teams not only didn't win any of the games, but went 0-4 against the spread as well.

Contributing to the line is the status of Ole Miss star running back Kewan Lacy, who left the LSU game with an "upper-body injury" and didn't return. Although X-rays were negative on his shoulder, Lacy is listed as a game-time decision.

It's no surprise that the betting public is all over the Rebels, with the vast majority of wagers at multiple sportsbooks so far on Ole Miss to cover. One oddsmaker noted that it's been "one-way action" on Ole Miss, especially on the moneyline.

So why, exactly, is Florida favored?

The answer is a combination of several factors, according to oddsmakers that Yahoo Sports spoke with, but the biggest ones are a Florida team under Sumrall whose power rating has increased (somewhat under the radar) and a tough emotional letdown spot for Ole Miss after a huge win.

"The Lacy injury is definitely something, but I think you have a couple other big parts here," Seamus Magee, BetMGM's lead college football trader, told Yahoo Sports. "For one, this is pretty bad spot for Ole Miss, having to go to the Swamp after playing what felt like their Super Bowl. And another is I think Florida has seen a pretty decent upgrade on the market. The offense looked great with Aaron Philo and Jadan Baugh last week in Auburn."

Home-field advantage is generally worth more in college football than in the NFL, and the Swamp in Gainesville is one of the sport's best venues, potentially worth 2.5-3 points to the spread, according to one oddsmaker.

"What's been missed the past few weeks is how good this Sumrall team looks on both sides of the ball," said Joey Feazel, head NFL and college football oddsmaker at Caesars Sports. "No oddsmaker bases their market on who is ranked and who isn't. The line is more based on this being a pretty even matchup, and Florida is a very tough place to play."

Respected action has also been on the Gators at lower numbers, so this game is going to close with Ole Miss as the underdog.

"We opened Gators -2.5 and respected money bet Florida right away," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at the Borgata in Atlanta City, told Yahoo Sports. "That money is keeping this game at 3, because the public loves Ole Miss in this one."

We should be set for another great Saturday of college football and all eyes will be on this matchup to see if Ole Miss can defy the odds.

Historically, we play really well in Gainesville, especially when we don't play a WR at RB. We hold a 6-5-1 advantage in Gainesville.

Thursday update had Ole Miss with 9 players out for the game.