re: This thing is getting scary

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Italy is basically the same land size as Arizona to put that more into perspective.

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Land size means nothing in this context. Take Italy’s 79M population and Arizona’s 7M. Do the 6 feet of separation our govt suggests. A lot more 6’ available in Arizona than almost all of Italy.

Stats are wonderful but really we are in slo-motion action/reaction to what already happened elsewhere. NYC had it’s 1st diagnosed case around 3/1. They now have 12,000+ in NYC as of 3/23.

Keep the f away from other peeps. I’m mandated to go to work today even though I live in a shelter in place state. Sucks for me & may suck more for my wife & relatives already furloughed unless I sleep in my car. I really hate life & making decisions right now.

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Land size means nothing in this context.

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That was the point though. I think everyone knows that Italy is much bigger in population than Arizona. If you just know that the point really hits home and then some when you dig deeper.

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That was the point though. I think everyone knows that Italy is much bigger in population than Arizona. If you just know that the point really hits home and then some when you dig deeper.

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Sorry. It was not clear to me. I think everything our little Secrant group is saying is: things are going to get much worse for the World and America in terms of cases & deaths. Basically nothing is surprising me anymore.

Here are the number of Global Deaths the past 16 days:

3/8: 105
3/9: 228
3/10: 198
3/11: 271
3/12: 302
3/13: 353
3/14: 448
3/15: 404
3/16: 686
3/17: 642
3/18: 817
3/19: 973
3/20: 1,080
3/21: 1,356
3/22: 1,626
3/23: 1,634 (so far)

If you take a 2-day average for each date (AVG of current day and day before) to help clean up the data a bit, you'll see that most every day is seeing global fatalities equal between 2.00 and 2.10 times one week earlier.

So if this trend continues, we're looking at global daily deaths equaling around 3,400 one week from now, and possibly 6,800 two weeks from now. Who knows if the same escalation will take place, but I think arguments can be made that it might actually increase as it spreads to other parts of the world currently not affected quite as badly.

Italy is now 28 days past the point of seeing its 10th fatality.... and things are not even close to slowing down there.

Iran is 32 days in, and active cases are still on the rise.

The USA is just 20 days in.
France is just 17 days in.
The UK is just 12 days in.
The Netherlands is just 11 days in.
Switzerland is just 11 days iin.
Germany is just 9 days in.

Other countries like Indonesia, Turkey, Malaysia, etc. are showing signs of an escalating crisis but are even further behind in their cycle.

I'm afraid we are 4 weeks out at best for seeing global cases reach their peak. Other countries should reach their peak prior to that, but I believe we are 4-6 weeks out from the entire world reaching peak. Hopefully I'm wrong. But if it continues on trend, we're looking at hundreds of thousands of fatalities worldwide... possibly worse.

Apparently New York’s mortality rate has dropped to 0.92%

Excellent!
Gotta give it to the people of NY. I’ve only lived here for 5 years and have had nothing but an amazing experience being here, everyone has always been extremely neighborly and friendly even before this
But now it’s just something different. Entire community i coming together, working together to kick this viruses arse, and it’s been a really uplifting sight. I fricking love my new home.

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which puts it on par with the flu.

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I’ve been thinking this a lot now.
But i feel like this is also a big insurance issue too.
There’s no Corona Virus shot yet. But there’s a flu shot.
Will admit though this whole situation could help me big time career wise. Especially if I keep it up and don’t take any days off. Being young with no kids is paying off!

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which puts it on par with the flu.

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Thats 9x worse than the flu.

So whats 2 days in a row of 100+ in America? Not a good trend.

Kyle, how about various countries' fatalities per million at the same relative times (days past first case or first death or whatever is easiest). I think that statistic would show a lot about relative effects of health care and/or genetic predisposition.

IMO, although everybody is doing it, using confirmed cases in the denominator can be very misleading when one country is testing everybody and another is only testing people when they become ill and are high-risk.