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re: This thing is getting scary
Posted on 3/24/20 at 11:16 pm to DownSouthJukin
Posted on 3/24/20 at 11:16 pm to DownSouthJukin
The best place I can tell you to go is Oaxaca. It's tropical but the best part is that it's very sparsely populated and no where near as expensive as the other areas of the country unless you want it to be. Relatively safe, although they do have occasional problems out there.
If you legitimately want to travel soon, let me know and I'll get you a reliable person to show you around if you want.
If you legitimately want to travel soon, let me know and I'll get you a reliable person to show you around if you want.
2
Posted on 3/24/20 at 11:51 pm to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
And let me say: I'm not trying to say that border control isn't important or that Mexico isn't behind and under poor leadership.
I'm just saying: if you're working triage on this deal, that's down the list. Ramping up testing and detection capability is number 1 (other than dealing with immediate lack of vents and beds). That's why S. Korea is so successful. They've embedded testing into their society. We have a leader who was claiming this was "no big deal" three weeks ago when we should have been taking drastic measures to prep for it. But I don t blame Trump. The countries who are doing it well have done it before. Still, I maintain that immigration is least of our worries at this point in the crisis.
Finally: I was supposed to be hitting Oaxaca again this summer. One of the best places in the world as far as I'm concerned.
I'm just saying: if you're working triage on this deal, that's down the list. Ramping up testing and detection capability is number 1 (other than dealing with immediate lack of vents and beds). That's why S. Korea is so successful. They've embedded testing into their society. We have a leader who was claiming this was "no big deal" three weeks ago when we should have been taking drastic measures to prep for it. But I don t blame Trump. The countries who are doing it well have done it before. Still, I maintain that immigration is least of our worries at this point in the crisis.
Finally: I was supposed to be hitting Oaxaca again this summer. One of the best places in the world as far as I'm concerned.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:51 am to hogfly
Personally, I blame China for trying to lie and continuing to lie about it. They knew what was going on and tried to suppress it.
Now, though, is the time that we need to have a really hard look in the mirror and determine what the future of humanity is. The best solution is to simply self-quarantine -- but in the future we should be working on keeping companies afloat without people being at them physically.
It really drives me fricking crazy in Mexico City because we have an aging upper-management tier of leadership that believes that if you're not miserable you're not working. They literally spend hundreds of thousands of dollars in rent for jobs that don't actually necessitate a physical presence.
I digress.
Countries all around the world should be looking into a Universal Basic Income, it would solve a significant amount of these problems and at least completely lessen the blow of near-apocalyptic catastrophes and permit other forms of debt forgiveness (since you have a guaranteed income).
I really hope that this is a wake up call to revolutionize how we, our economy and healthcare system works.
Immigration: It is not a big deal now, but when this virus is raging through our population because no one is taking it seriously it will be very soon. I'm not even sure if this President will make it through his entire term after all is said and done. The economy is about to be gutted, people will be looking to make quick cash and many desperate people will be heading North.
Right now, as I said: Self-quarantine is the absolute best anyone can do. Unfortunately, it can be extremely difficult due to just how unforgiving America's entire system is. Many countries just outright suspended all evictions, accrued debt and other such problems initiated by COVID-19.
Lastly: Not many people know about Oaxaca, it is easily the best part of Mexico if you're looking to just chill and have a nice time without obnoxious tourists. Absolutely stunning and even the resorts are affordable. I probably shouldn't even be telling people about it.
Now, though, is the time that we need to have a really hard look in the mirror and determine what the future of humanity is. The best solution is to simply self-quarantine -- but in the future we should be working on keeping companies afloat without people being at them physically.
It really drives me fricking crazy in Mexico City because we have an aging upper-management tier of leadership that believes that if you're not miserable you're not working. They literally spend hundreds of thousands of dollars in rent for jobs that don't actually necessitate a physical presence.
I digress.
Countries all around the world should be looking into a Universal Basic Income, it would solve a significant amount of these problems and at least completely lessen the blow of near-apocalyptic catastrophes and permit other forms of debt forgiveness (since you have a guaranteed income).
I really hope that this is a wake up call to revolutionize how we, our economy and healthcare system works.
Immigration: It is not a big deal now, but when this virus is raging through our population because no one is taking it seriously it will be very soon. I'm not even sure if this President will make it through his entire term after all is said and done. The economy is about to be gutted, people will be looking to make quick cash and many desperate people will be heading North.
Right now, as I said: Self-quarantine is the absolute best anyone can do. Unfortunately, it can be extremely difficult due to just how unforgiving America's entire system is. Many countries just outright suspended all evictions, accrued debt and other such problems initiated by COVID-19.
Lastly: Not many people know about Oaxaca, it is easily the best part of Mexico if you're looking to just chill and have a nice time without obnoxious tourists. Absolutely stunning and even the resorts are affordable. I probably shouldn't even be telling people about it.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 7:38 am to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
EDIT: Enh, that was needlessly confrontational on my part. I'll scrub that post.
This post was edited on 3/25/20 at 8:33 am
Posted on 3/25/20 at 7:53 am to Arksulli
Also, thought I'd put this here.
At his morning news conference on March 24, president López Obrador announced that Mexico entered Phase 2 of the coronavirus pandemic, in effect until April 30. Gatherings of more than 100 people are prohibited, and both the army and the navy will participate. The armed forces have 1,738 doctors, 1,727 nurses, 100 intensive therapy ambulances, and 400 ambulances for transportation. The military also has 5 high specialty hospitals, 36 second-level hospitals, and 272 first-level hospitals with 262 health brigades across the country.
EDIT: Again, needlessly confrontational so I scrubbed part of this. The response is slow but they seem to be picking the pace up now. The danger of electing a populist is that they are prone to making outrageous speeches. AMLO certainly has done that but seems to have come to his senses.
At his morning news conference on March 24, president López Obrador announced that Mexico entered Phase 2 of the coronavirus pandemic, in effect until April 30. Gatherings of more than 100 people are prohibited, and both the army and the navy will participate. The armed forces have 1,738 doctors, 1,727 nurses, 100 intensive therapy ambulances, and 400 ambulances for transportation. The military also has 5 high specialty hospitals, 36 second-level hospitals, and 272 first-level hospitals with 262 health brigades across the country.
EDIT: Again, needlessly confrontational so I scrubbed part of this. The response is slow but they seem to be picking the pace up now. The danger of electing a populist is that they are prone to making outrageous speeches. AMLO certainly has done that but seems to have come to his senses.
This post was edited on 3/25/20 at 8:36 am
Posted on 3/25/20 at 9:01 am to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
quote:
The best place I can tell you to go is Oaxaca. It's tropical but the best part is that it's very sparsely populated and no where near as expensive as the other areas of the country unless you want it to be. Relatively safe, although they do have occasional problems out there.
If you legitimately want to travel soon, let me know and I'll get you a reliable person to show you around if you want.
Much appreciated.
Timeline is 2022 right now, maybe the end of 2021. Baby #2 is due in June so that puts a stop to any real travel plans for a while. The wife and I have decided to travel with the children as opposed to buying them stuff. We'd rather make memories.
An acquaintance has a place in Cabo, and that's why I was asking about Baja Sur. I thought it would be a good base to explore the rest of the southern peninsula.
This post was edited on 3/25/20 at 9:27 am
Posted on 3/25/20 at 9:21 am to BHMKyle
Well.... 2 of the 3 bright spots yesterday turned South today. Waiting on Italy's numbers so hopefully its not 3 for 3.
After a drop in cases on Saturday and Sunday in Iran... the two lowest days for new cases in over a week... things took a bad turn. Today they had their highest ever total of new cases, and the most new daily fatalities they've seen in five days. Things are definitely not looking better in Iran now.
Same can be said for Switzerland. New cases had started to level off and they had a very good day yesterday with just 2 total fatalities (lowest one day total in 10 days). But the law of averages caught up with them and they've had their deadliest one-day total yet today and they are not even done reporting their numbers yet.
What is going on in Western Europe is unbelievable.
Here are the daily fatalities for all of Western Europe, combined:
3/16: 462
3/17: 618
3/18: 733
3/19: 825
3/20: 1,089
3/21: 1,363
3/22: 1,294
3/23: 1,494
3/24: 1,903
Total fatalities in Western Europe now total 12,758 and are rising sharply. What is very perplexing is that despite a large number of confirmed cases.... 215,757... the fatality rate is much higher in Western Europe than other places in the world. Right now it sits at 5.91% and seems to rise each day.
After a drop in cases on Saturday and Sunday in Iran... the two lowest days for new cases in over a week... things took a bad turn. Today they had their highest ever total of new cases, and the most new daily fatalities they've seen in five days. Things are definitely not looking better in Iran now.
Same can be said for Switzerland. New cases had started to level off and they had a very good day yesterday with just 2 total fatalities (lowest one day total in 10 days). But the law of averages caught up with them and they've had their deadliest one-day total yet today and they are not even done reporting their numbers yet.
What is going on in Western Europe is unbelievable.
Here are the daily fatalities for all of Western Europe, combined:
3/16: 462
3/17: 618
3/18: 733
3/19: 825
3/20: 1,089
3/21: 1,363
3/22: 1,294
3/23: 1,494
3/24: 1,903
Total fatalities in Western Europe now total 12,758 and are rising sharply. What is very perplexing is that despite a large number of confirmed cases.... 215,757... the fatality rate is much higher in Western Europe than other places in the world. Right now it sits at 5.91% and seems to rise each day.
This post was edited on 3/25/20 at 9:26 am
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:37 pm to BHMKyle
Italy’s deaths dropped again today (683). Still above what they were Sunday and Monday.
Cases slightly down from yesterday. (5,210)
US also seems at a lower pace than usual today
Cases slightly down from yesterday. (5,210)
US also seems at a lower pace than usual today
This post was edited on 3/25/20 at 12:38 pm
Posted on 3/25/20 at 12:54 pm to Weagle25
Yeah things may very well be flattening out in Italy.... which is good. But remember, Iran appeared to be flattening out for about a week and then things ramped back up.
If you look at everything on a 3-day rolling average, it helps balance out some of the day-to-day noise you get in the daily statistics.
The 3-day rolling average for new cases in Italy stands at 5,083... that's -2.2% since yesterday's 3-day average... down 9.7% since Monday's 3-day average... and down 15.8% since Sunday's 3-day average (which was the high peak in this statistic). That's all very good news.
As for the 3-day rolling average of daily fatalities, its not quite as bright. Today's 3-day average is 676 deaths... up 1.6% from yesterday, but down a slight 2.0% since the peak on Sunday.
On a 3-day rolling average, South Korea peaked first in new cases... 2 days later peaked in new fatalities... and then 6 days after that peaked in terms of Active cases. It's been 2 weeks since active cases peaked there and total active cases are now down 28% from the peak.
Italy's active cases are up 3,500 from yesterday, and if they follow South Korea's trend, they'll hopefully peak in the next 5-6 days and then start to fall. If new cases and new fatalities also star to fall over the next few days, then we'll know when total active cases start coming down that they've seen the worst.
If you look at everything on a 3-day rolling average, it helps balance out some of the day-to-day noise you get in the daily statistics.
The 3-day rolling average for new cases in Italy stands at 5,083... that's -2.2% since yesterday's 3-day average... down 9.7% since Monday's 3-day average... and down 15.8% since Sunday's 3-day average (which was the high peak in this statistic). That's all very good news.
As for the 3-day rolling average of daily fatalities, its not quite as bright. Today's 3-day average is 676 deaths... up 1.6% from yesterday, but down a slight 2.0% since the peak on Sunday.
On a 3-day rolling average, South Korea peaked first in new cases... 2 days later peaked in new fatalities... and then 6 days after that peaked in terms of Active cases. It's been 2 weeks since active cases peaked there and total active cases are now down 28% from the peak.
Italy's active cases are up 3,500 from yesterday, and if they follow South Korea's trend, they'll hopefully peak in the next 5-6 days and then start to fall. If new cases and new fatalities also star to fall over the next few days, then we'll know when total active cases start coming down that they've seen the worst.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 1:21 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
As for the 3-day rolling average of daily fatalities, its not quite as bright. Today's 3-day average is 676 deaths... up 1.6% from yesterday, but down a slight 2.0% since the peak on Sunday.
Just a theory, but I would think the curve of fatalities would closely follow and be slightly behind the curve of number of cases
Posted on 3/25/20 at 2:17 pm to Weagle25
quote:
Just a theory, but I would think the curve of fatalities would closely follow and be slightly behind the curve of number of cases
That is a reasonable assumption. Unfortunately the number of fatalities will lag a bit because you will have already infected people passing away.
I am hoping the numbers will begin to drop significantly for Italy and Switzerland (as examples) within the next week as the social distancing policy pays off.
I'm still worried about Iran because many people there will absolutely refuse to stop going to mosques and the government is, to put it mildly, dysfunctional. I would not be surprised if Iran, a country with a large and poor population, is one of the last hold outs to get rid of this.
The big one is India. How will their health system cope?
Posted on 3/25/20 at 2:37 pm to Weagle25
quote:
Just a theory, but I would think the curve of fatalities would closely follow and be slightly behind the curve of number of cases
Yes, you are right. It should follow behind the new cases curve. Total Active cases will be the last to fall because it takes folks recovering from the illness for those to tick down.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 4:18 pm to Arksulli
I don't know why you keep excusing AMLO.
The guy literally said Pandemics don't do anything to Mexicans and said his protection was derived from amulets. El Salvador and the rest of Latin America have been furious with his response.
Our Mayor took it more seriously than he did, and there is general confusion at all levels of the country. We have markedly less ICUs and ventilators per capita than Italy, and we've known this will be a problem for weeks.
Please stop talking to me like I don't live here.
This is easily the worst response by any government in the world. The video is in English this time since the first I linked was in Spanish.
The guy is a fricking moron. He's been hugging and kissing people all over the country and is on camera rejecting sanitizing gel. He isn't taking this seriously and cares way more about the economy than he does the thousands who will surely die in the next few weeks.
The guy literally said Pandemics don't do anything to Mexicans and said his protection was derived from amulets. El Salvador and the rest of Latin America have been furious with his response.
Our Mayor took it more seriously than he did, and there is general confusion at all levels of the country. We have markedly less ICUs and ventilators per capita than Italy, and we've known this will be a problem for weeks.
Please stop talking to me like I don't live here.
This is easily the worst response by any government in the world. The video is in English this time since the first I linked was in Spanish.
The guy is a fricking moron. He's been hugging and kissing people all over the country and is on camera rejecting sanitizing gel. He isn't taking this seriously and cares way more about the economy than he does the thousands who will surely die in the next few weeks.
This post was edited on 3/25/20 at 4:23 pm
Posted on 3/25/20 at 5:32 pm to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
quote:
his is easily the worst response by any government in the world. The video is in English this time since the first I linked was in Spanish.
The guy is a fricking moron. He's been hugging and kissing people all over the country and is on camera rejecting sanitizing gel. He isn't taking this seriously and cares way more about the economy than he does the thousands who will surely die in the next few weeks.
Oh I can think of quite a few governments that have screwed the pooch on this. I'm not defending the man.
I was saying that your send the troops to the Mexican border suggestion was dumber than a bag of hammers. I still think it was dumber than a bag of hammers and I suspect that deep down you know it was dumber than a bag of hammers.
That having been said Mexico is finally starting to put policies into place to contain this. Fine. It might suck, but there you have it. Will it work? Who knows? Can it be any worse than what we have here? Y'all would have to work hard at it.
AMLO is a jackass and he should be voted out of office in the next election post haste. But he is hardly the only world leader to massively drop the ball on this. If you want to start a thread on why he's a shitty President who is doing major damage to Mexico and should be voted out I'll cheerfully give you every upvote I can. By all means, put the boots to him.
But your original argument of move the troops to the border was dangerously dumb. Dangerously dumb because some idiots here will embrace that. Dangerously dumb because we need our National Guard for other things at the moment.
Mexico is staggering towards doing the right thing. I'm hardly in a country that can throw a stone at them considering our response to date. Also... worse then China? Really? You are going to pick that hill to die on?
You want to start a thread talking about how shitty things are there... go right ahead. Just be careful in saying we should spend our military assets on something that would be as useless as teats on a boar hog.
Posted on 3/25/20 at 8:06 pm to Arksulli
What's dangerously dumb is pretending that you know more about the situation in Mexico than I do.
What's fricking retarded is thinking that large groups of unclean people who can't be tracked might cross the border if they're not stopped.
What's, in all reality, the stupidest argument I've seen on here is what you're proposing.
Soon, this is going to explode with cases. Soon, there will be no money here. Soon, people will go where there has always been work and resources.
You look at it through this really fricking dumb liberal prism of inclusion, I don't care about what ought, I care about what is.
Our economy is collapsing and millions of hungry people are going to go North. Walmart is already reinforcing their doors for looters, in fact, people have already begun to loot.
https://www.milenio.com/policia/cdmx-asaltan-comercios-iztapalapa-gam-cuauhtemoc-carranza
Asalto means robbery, "Asaltan" means they are raiding/robbing. We've had three days in phase two which started on Monday. This was yesterday. It took them two days to start en masse looting (in various areas).
For once in your life, listen to someone else for a change. You're not nearly as well-informed as you think you are. They need strong access control to the Southern Border, people will start to flock in waves much like Muslims did during the Syrian War -- this time they'll just have no access to healthcare and a government that doesn't want them to begin with.
What's fricking retarded is thinking that large groups of unclean people who can't be tracked might cross the border if they're not stopped.
What's, in all reality, the stupidest argument I've seen on here is what you're proposing.
Soon, this is going to explode with cases. Soon, there will be no money here. Soon, people will go where there has always been work and resources.
You look at it through this really fricking dumb liberal prism of inclusion, I don't care about what ought, I care about what is.
Our economy is collapsing and millions of hungry people are going to go North. Walmart is already reinforcing their doors for looters, in fact, people have already begun to loot.
https://www.milenio.com/policia/cdmx-asaltan-comercios-iztapalapa-gam-cuauhtemoc-carranza
Asalto means robbery, "Asaltan" means they are raiding/robbing. We've had three days in phase two which started on Monday. This was yesterday. It took them two days to start en masse looting (in various areas).
For once in your life, listen to someone else for a change. You're not nearly as well-informed as you think you are. They need strong access control to the Southern Border, people will start to flock in waves much like Muslims did during the Syrian War -- this time they'll just have no access to healthcare and a government that doesn't want them to begin with.
This post was edited on 3/25/20 at 8:35 pm
Posted on 3/26/20 at 8:18 am to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
US made a jump yesterday.
About 100 extra deaths. 4000 more cases than usual.
About 100 extra deaths. 4000 more cases than usual.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:14 am to BHMKyle
Here is an update as of this morning on metro areas with the most fatalities:
1. New York City- 382
2. Seattle- 118
3. New Orleans- 50
4. Detroit- 39
5. Atlanta- 20
6. Chicago- 17
7. Los Angeles- 14
8. Bridgeport, CT- 12
9. Albany, GA- 10
9. Indianapolis- 10
9. Riverside, CA- 10
12. San Francisco- 9
Only looking at metros with at least 1 Million people, here are how they rank on a per capita basis:
Most Deaths per 1 Million People:
1. New Orleans- 39.4
2. Seattle- 30.0
3. New York- 19.1
4. Detroit- 9.0
Those are by far the worst hit places on a per capita basis. Atlanta is only around 3.36
Things are not looking good for New Orleans. I'm afraid it truly will be ground zero along with New York.
1. New York City- 382
2. Seattle- 118
3. New Orleans- 50
4. Detroit- 39
5. Atlanta- 20
6. Chicago- 17
7. Los Angeles- 14
8. Bridgeport, CT- 12
9. Albany, GA- 10
9. Indianapolis- 10
9. Riverside, CA- 10
12. San Francisco- 9
Only looking at metros with at least 1 Million people, here are how they rank on a per capita basis:
Most Deaths per 1 Million People:
1. New Orleans- 39.4
2. Seattle- 30.0
3. New York- 19.1
4. Detroit- 9.0
Those are by far the worst hit places on a per capita basis. Atlanta is only around 3.36
Things are not looking good for New Orleans. I'm afraid it truly will be ground zero along with New York.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:49 am to LouisvilleKat
quote:
LouisvilleKaren
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:53 am to BHMKyle
So one of the oddest things that's hard to figure out is why the fatality rate varies so much country-to-country.
For the countries reporting 4,000 total fatalities or more, here is how they rank in terms of fatality rate (Worst to Best):
10.09%- Italy
7.60%- Iran
7.38%- Spain
5.27%- France
4.84%- United Kingdom
3.53%- Netherlands
3.53%- Belgium
1.63%- Switzerland
1.44%- United States
1.42%- South Korea
0.75%- Austria
0.55%- Germany
Why is Italy's 18x worse than Germany's? One might blame it on Italy's health care and infrastructure not being up to par with Germany's.... and that might be part of it. But it appears it truly does have something to do with the different DNA or the different diets of the two countries.
Switzerland is an interesting case study since they speak 4 different languages there.
In the German-speaking cantons of Switzerland, the fatality rate is just over 0.5%.
In the French-speaking cantons of Switzerland, the fatality rate is just under 2.0%
In the Italian-speaking cantons of Switzerland, the fatality rate is just under 4.5%
In the cantons that have have a mixture of languages, the ones with more German are low and the ones with more Italian are higher.
This is a relatively small country and within the country there appears to be vastly different fatality rates which correlate with the language.
Obviously it has nothing to do with the spoken language, but there appears to either be a genetic or dietary reason that Germans have a very low fatality rate and Italians have a very high rate. It's unbelievable the difference, but I believe scientists need to work to try to figure out the reason. Is there something we could be doing differently that would improve our bodies to fight off the disease, etc.?
For the countries reporting 4,000 total fatalities or more, here is how they rank in terms of fatality rate (Worst to Best):
10.09%- Italy
7.60%- Iran
7.38%- Spain
5.27%- France
4.84%- United Kingdom
3.53%- Netherlands
3.53%- Belgium
1.63%- Switzerland
1.44%- United States
1.42%- South Korea
0.75%- Austria
0.55%- Germany
Why is Italy's 18x worse than Germany's? One might blame it on Italy's health care and infrastructure not being up to par with Germany's.... and that might be part of it. But it appears it truly does have something to do with the different DNA or the different diets of the two countries.
Switzerland is an interesting case study since they speak 4 different languages there.
In the German-speaking cantons of Switzerland, the fatality rate is just over 0.5%.
In the French-speaking cantons of Switzerland, the fatality rate is just under 2.0%
In the Italian-speaking cantons of Switzerland, the fatality rate is just under 4.5%
In the cantons that have have a mixture of languages, the ones with more German are low and the ones with more Italian are higher.
This is a relatively small country and within the country there appears to be vastly different fatality rates which correlate with the language.
Obviously it has nothing to do with the spoken language, but there appears to either be a genetic or dietary reason that Germans have a very low fatality rate and Italians have a very high rate. It's unbelievable the difference, but I believe scientists need to work to try to figure out the reason. Is there something we could be doing differently that would improve our bodies to fight off the disease, etc.?
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 11:55 am
Posted on 3/26/20 at 12:29 pm to BHMKyle
The epidemiologist Neil Ferguson who was behind the study that caused much of the shutdowns has now backed significantly off his original predictions.
UK went from 500,000 deaths to 20,000.
LINK
Essentially, he says they underestimated the infectiousness of the virus and more people have already had it than originally anticipated. He thinks the UK currently has enough capacity to handle the amount of patients they will see.
UK went from 500,000 deaths to 20,000.
LINK
Essentially, he says they underestimated the infectiousness of the virus and more people have already had it than originally anticipated. He thinks the UK currently has enough capacity to handle the amount of patients they will see.
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