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Heads up to Arky and Mizzou people - severe weather possible today
Posted on 3/25/15 at 8:12 am
Posted on 3/25/15 at 8:12 am
First real severe weather threat of the season...
45-50 KT WSWLY MID-LVL FLOW ATOP 30+
KT SWLY 850 MB JET WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STRONG SUPERCELLS
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND. WHILE INCREASING DEGREE
OF LOW- AND MID-LVL FORCING SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
FAIRLY QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS/BROKEN LINES...SOME OPPORTUNITY
WILL EXIST FOR A FEW LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE STORMS...ESPECIALLY NE OF
SFC LOW AND NEAR DRY LINE/LOW INTERSECTION. THESE COULD YIELD A
COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND.
AS THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SEWD THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
RESULTING SQUALL LINE/QLCS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT IN THE
PLNS...WITH A DIMINISHING THOUGH STILL NON-ZERO THREAT FOR LOCALLY
DMGG WIND AND HAIL SWD INTO PARTS OF TX. A WIND THREAT
MAY...HOWEVER...CONTINUE LATER INTO THE NGT EWD ACROSS SRN MO AND
NRN AR INTO THE LWR OH VLY...WHERE STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO BE
UNDERCUT...AND A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS MAY EVOLVE.
45-50 KT WSWLY MID-LVL FLOW ATOP 30+
KT SWLY 850 MB JET WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR STRONG SUPERCELLS
WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DMGG WIND. WHILE INCREASING DEGREE
OF LOW- AND MID-LVL FORCING SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY WILL
FAIRLY QUICKLY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS/BROKEN LINES...SOME OPPORTUNITY
WILL EXIST FOR A FEW LONGER-LIVED DISCRETE STORMS...ESPECIALLY NE OF
SFC LOW AND NEAR DRY LINE/LOW INTERSECTION. THESE COULD YIELD A
COUPLE TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND.
AS THE COLD FRONT ACCELERATES SEWD THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT...EXPECT
RESULTING SQUALL LINE/QLCS TO BECOME INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT IN THE
PLNS...WITH A DIMINISHING THOUGH STILL NON-ZERO THREAT FOR LOCALLY
DMGG WIND AND HAIL SWD INTO PARTS OF TX. A WIND THREAT
MAY...HOWEVER...CONTINUE LATER INTO THE NGT EWD ACROSS SRN MO AND
NRN AR INTO THE LWR OH VLY...WHERE STORMS WILL BE LESS LIKELY TO BE
UNDERCUT...AND A FEW BOWING SEGMENTS MAY EVOLVE.
Posted on 3/25/15 at 8:23 am to NorthEndZone
I expected Pioneer to start this
Posted on 3/25/15 at 8:23 am to NorthEndZone
It's a late start to severe season thankfully. Also the number of tornadoes around the country is extremely low compared to historical averages. I hope it continues.
Posted on 3/25/15 at 8:27 am to NorthEndZone
Appreciate the sentiment, but this is not severe weather to us.
Posted on 3/25/15 at 8:32 am to 5thTiger
I live right on the edge of the "pink" severe section and I have giant trees in my backyard that are near the house. I love spring but I hate spring storms.
Fortunately I prepped the tornado shelter in the basement a few weeks ago.
Fortunately I prepped the tornado shelter in the basement a few weeks ago.
Posted on 3/25/15 at 8:36 am to NorthEndZone
CAPE values for the region under threat today. You'll note the 3000+ values from OKC to Tulsa generally. CAPE shows how buoyant a parcel of air is and generally how unstable the air mass is.
That's where I'd expect the worst weather today, somewhere in the yellow and orange area.
Short range model predicted radar for this afternoon. There's a stout supercell right around OKC at the bottom of the the bow.
Posted on 3/25/15 at 9:28 am to mizzoukills
quote:
Fortunately I prepped the tornado shelter in the basement a few weeks ago
Whoo basements. Took me a while of my adult life to realize that people in other states didn't have basements.
But yeah, this is the type of weather where you sit on the front porch and enjoy the show.
Posted on 3/25/15 at 9:33 am to 5thTiger
Will it be possible to cut grass in west central Alabama this afternoon? That's really all I need to know
This post was edited on 3/25/15 at 5:05 pm
Posted on 3/25/15 at 4:53 pm to NorthEndZone
Tornado warning just went off on my phone. First time its ever done that. I looked quick and the storm is north of here. Might go right through Springdale, though.
Posted on 3/25/15 at 4:56 pm to wmr
Wow. Wind was howling like crazy a few minutes ago. Now its dead still and sunny in north Fayetteville.
This post was edited on 3/25/15 at 4:57 pm
Posted on 3/25/15 at 4:58 pm to wmr
Hook echo SW of Lowell, headed for Lowell and southeast Rogers.
Posted on 3/25/15 at 5:48 pm to genro
Nice little nader out west of Tulsa right now.
Posted on 3/25/15 at 6:04 pm to NorthEndZone
I'm not liking how those Tulsa storms seem to have turned south east.
2 tornadoes moving right down highway 412.
2 tornadoes moving right down highway 412.
Posted on 3/25/15 at 6:07 pm to wmr
Two radar indicated tornadoes in the Berryville area. Something will get torn up over there.
Posted on 3/25/15 at 6:09 pm to NorthEndZone
IN Tulsa tonight. Drinking beer in the hotel lobby.
Bitches be all like "tornado!! OMG. WE GONNA DIE!!"
I'm all like "more free beer."
Bitches be all like "tornado!! OMG. WE GONNA DIE!!"
I'm all like "more free beer."
This post was edited on 3/25/15 at 6:11 pm
Posted on 3/25/15 at 6:11 pm to wmr
The general motion of the line seems NE. So Fayetteville in theory should miss it. Keep an eye out. El Reno, OK has a tornado blowing through right now. Only a couple of years ago a monster tornado killed a few chasers in El Reno.
Posted on 3/25/15 at 6:15 pm to Duke
Touchdown confirmed in Berryville Arkansas area from various sources.
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