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re: 2026-2027 Ski Thread (The Rebound)

Posted by Duke on 11/6/26 at 3:28 pm to
Copper opens Sunday. I suspect Breck is on the same timetable

re: 2026-2027 Ski Thread (The Rebound)

Posted by Duke on 11/5/26 at 10:05 am to
Tahoe gonna feast this year.

Weather not playing nice. Copper Mnt opening getting pushed back. Too warm to make enough snow.

re: Daylight Savings?

Posted by Duke on 10/30/26 at 9:24 am to
quote:

Driving home in dark at 515 is much better


Unironically yes.

re: 2026-2027 Ski Thread (The Rebound)

Posted by Duke on 10/29/26 at 7:57 pm to


It's starting to get really interesting on the modeling out 10+ days. It gets amplified as hell. Might be some of the SSW fall out working it's way down.

None of em agree on the timing, but eventually they bring a big arse trough into the west by mid-month. Cautiously optimistic...

re: 2026-2027 Ski Thread (The Rebound)

Posted by Duke on 10/28/26 at 11:06 am to
And the Colorado season opens in an hour, with Abasin spinning a chair at 11.
quote:

Where was the wind sheer?


Did you not see it collapse as it came ashore. Didnt save folks from the wind, bc it was too late. Recon fix went from 959 to 971 in one pass.

Your question is why did the storm hold up so well vs the shear?

Answer is enhanced outflow and thus convective ability due to position relative to the upper level jet.
quote:

Yeah, this wasn't really a Cat 3


Was a 2 at landfall.

And remember, these wind speeds are for over open water. You almost never see that category on land (but youll often see gusts to that category).

Escambia Co got rocked last night. Im sure its similar to Ivan in trees down inland. Just not the catastrophe on Pensacola Beach that Ivan brought.

re: Isaias - Clean Up and Recovery Begins

Posted by Duke on 10/10/26 at 9:07 am to
quote:

Wonder if Jay got a tornado or mesovortex or something


I think this was just wind action as the core collapsed. Lots of lightning (convection) on that side, allowing the high winds aloft to come down.
quote:


When it’s all said and done they probably downgrade it to a TS and you people will owe me an apology


we got a 105 mph gust.

a man is only as good as his word

re: Isaias - Clean Up and Recovery Begins

Posted by Duke on 10/9/26 at 8:28 pm to
quote:

One of the quickest offshore collapses of a major hurricane I have ever seen.


Not unexpected here.

re: Isaias - Clean Up and Recovery Begins

Posted by Duke on 10/9/26 at 7:54 pm to
quote:

Watching landfall, making white russians with milk, and relaxing on a Friday night


Ah, you too are a man of culture.

re: Isaias - Clean Up and Recovery Begins

Posted by Duke on 10/9/26 at 7:31 pm to
quote:

I wonder if the worst will end up on the west side, given how the core has collapsed


Just suggested the same to some friends.

re: Isaias - Clean Up and Recovery Begins

Posted by Duke on 10/9/26 at 3:31 pm to
Been watching. We're in the endgame now.

Impressive how much the divergence kept it steady vs the shear and dryness but its certainly looking like its starting to get some pulls of the dry air now.
The governor of *checks notes* Florida, acting like he cant nail spanish is hilarious. Especially that mfer, he aint dumb.
I have the command of spanish a 4 year old. native speaker does, and this name is easy to read and say?
quote:


Does anybody have the latest chart from google


Who cares? We can nowcast it.

re: Isaias - Clean Up and Recovery Begins

Posted by Duke on 10/9/26 at 1:07 pm to
Right entrance to a jet. Not the first time recently weve seen storms hold strong vs dry air and shear in a good pocket of divergence.

re: Isaias - Clean Up and Recovery Begins

Posted by Duke on 10/9/26 at 12:54 pm to
No back west. The only people who need worry about the path are those wobbles save or frick.

Impressive flight level winds. Upper divergence continues to support enough convection to fight the shear off. At least to this point

re: Isaias - Clean Up and Recovery Begins

Posted by Duke on 10/9/26 at 11:40 am to


shear vs right entrance. October on the Gulf Coast.

re: Isaias - Clean Up and Recovery Begins

Posted by Duke on 10/9/26 at 10:56 am to
quote:

Back to my earlier question, any chance this gets to a Cat 4? It's already a 3 and still a bit to go before landfall. Is the sheer doing anything to it?


IMO its about at its peak. The UL is really starting to dig in on it.